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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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I'm telling you.. Those north winds with that kind of track should set at least some of us up for at least some wintry weather. Granted the 32 line is right over me throughout but still for northern NC etc... It should show a colder solution than what is depicted.

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Some ice to start, but mostly rain. Past GFS runs have been all-rain, so I guess that's a start. It easily could be underestimating the wedge, though, which would change a lot of things.

GFS is not known for its cad abilities. Yes I know it's the 84 hr nam but you can already see it picking up the low level resolution of cold air at the surface and that it takes a lot to dislodge it, especially with a track like that.

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What happened with the GFS this time? It sounded like it was going to be better to start with.

It was for sure. It was digging more and the transfer seemed very nice to somewhere around CHS but for some reason it eroded the low level cold like the system was shooting west of all of us or something. Kind of mind boggling.

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I'm not sure why anyone at least in the northern half of North Carolina is discounting this. The GFS has a known bias to erode cad way too quickly this has been on display in previous storms. To top that there were several models that had good tracks for wintry weather at 12z for you guys. Everyone needs to calm down.

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