Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No cause its still over the ocean that's why I don't understand how you can really go by models right now. Once it can get sampled by better Data then models will start getting things together. Should know Wed what's going to happen late week I'm not one to call somebody out and I enjoy talking with you, however that statement is a little huh? Granted yes it's still in the Pacific, however physics and meteorology and the fact the models are in phenomenally superb agreement in my opinion, makes it completely acceptable to weigh everything. This system for the most part has been modeled correctly for days now really. Minus a few kinks (exact placement of h5 and when the primary transfers) is what will determine a few things. Please don't take my statement in a negative manner, however this is how great forecasts are made looking at models assessing upper air patterns, blocking mechanisms, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F096&rundt=2016011812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F096&rundt=2016011812 1/30/2010 is on there, too, I see. Nice storm in its own right. 2/19/2012 and of course 2/5/2010 were also hits for part of NC. Some of the others probably were, as well, but I do not remember them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2nd highest ranked analog to this event is the blizzard of 96 Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1/30/2010 is on there, too, I see. Nice storm in its own right. Yep. I believe that was modeled early as a storm further north than it ended up. Also of note for the 120 frame, 12/26/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 2nd highest ranked analog to this event is the blizzard of 96 Yes some similarities http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0107.php#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not one to call somebody out and I enjoy talking with you, however that statement is a little huh? Granted yes it's still in the Pacific, however physics and meteorology and the fact the models are in phenomenally superb agreement in my opinion, makes it completely acceptable to weigh everything. This system for the most part has been modeled correctly for days now really. Minus a few kinks (exact placement of h5 and when the primary transfers) is what will determine a few things. Please don't take my statement in a negative manner, however this is how great forecasts are made looking at models assessing upper air patterns, blocking mechanisms, etc.. I'm fine with your statement but you still can't say models has a handle on things when its not even out of the Pacific and all of the storm has not been sampled yet. We just have to agree to disagree and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yes some similarities http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0107.php#picture I remember that storm starting as snow, going over to sleet and freezing rain at night and ending as heavy snow Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm fine with your statement but you still can't say models has a handle on things when its not even out of the Pacific and all of the storm has not been sampled yet. We just have to agree to disagree and move on. Lol I agree to disagree. Let's have a good GFS model run here. Cheers to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 48 hour GFS at 0z has the backside energy a little more sharp and diggier so to speak. I got a feeling this run is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 57 if I had to guess with the way 5h is it's looking more euroish. Really digging into Texas on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 already at 57hrs the gfs is digging father south in response to stronger western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 already at 57hrs the gfs is digging father south in response to stronger western ridge At 63 the gulf moisture is about to spew wide open over the south. This thing is going to be beautiful in the upcoming frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a fair bit faster this run compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SLP looks further N to me...viewing on instantweathermaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 def colder @78, moisture incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Honestly at 75 the surface reflection is pretty similar comparing it to 81 hr from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SLP looks further N to me...viewing on instantweathermaps... It is at hr 78... close to the track of the Euro. It's also faster, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SLP looks further N to me...viewing on instantweathermaps... I think it's faster more than further north. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 front loaded snow thump from the primary.. where does it jump to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Fingertip of the cad was touching South Carolina almost, pretty pronounced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 front loaded snow thump from the primary.. where does it jump to? 1996 all over again. *crosses fingers* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 icy run for rdu so far. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I could live with a repeat of '96. 1-3" of snow in the upstate, then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain on top of that. Would make driving absolutely impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 front loaded snow thump from the primary.. where does it jump to? Looks to be transferring towards Charleston, SC at hr 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hour 90 she is about to explode! Transfer has occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Big thump VA and WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Fingertip of the cad was touching South Carolina almost, pretty pronounced Strong CAD signal gonna keep it pushed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks to be transferring towards Charleston, SC at hr 90. YAHTZEE! Charleston, SC sounds great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hour 96 she is cranking northeast of myrtle toward ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.