Disc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Snowfall 18z GEFS members. Piedmont isn't out if it by any means. Where are these on WxBell? I just can't seem to find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Snowfall 18z GEFS members. Piedmont isn't out if it by any means. ] Wow, 5 members with snow on coastal sc. I was just expecting the 1 weinie map. Better odds than I assumed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Where are these on WxBell? I just can't seem to find them.Under GFS ensembles heading "GEFS Precipitation+Type" it has a link to the right of that labeled CONUS, click that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If say sloppy mix of sleet / zr at best case scenario ( if you like wintry wx) / most likely , just a cold rain. Wraparound snow works out about once in a thousand chances Fact right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Under GFS ensembles heading "GEFS Precipitation+Type" it has a link to the right of that labeled CONUS, click that Perfect! Thanks, Jon. Not sure why that page has been eluding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z Dgex snow map looks better for NC areas north and west of I-40/85. However, when I looked at both the 850's and 2-meter temps, I was not impressed. At first glance, the track of the low looks similar to other models. That's about all of the DGEX breakdown we need. In fact, that was probably too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Dgex snow map looks better for NC areas north and west of I-40/85. However, when I looked at both the 850's and 2-meter temps, I was not impressed. At first glance, the track of the low looks similar to other models. That's about all of the DGEX breakdown we need. In fact, that was probably too much. What run were you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wrap around snow can be interesting in ATL. I remember many times when we had some serious squalls, that briefly whitened the ground. But that was back when winters were normal,,,lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What run were you looking at? That's the 06z DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Doesn't the GFS underestimate CAD usually? If so, wouldn't things be driven further south like the Euro and not plow through the wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's the 06z DGEX. I realized that. Thanks though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What run were you looking at? The new 18z is up on Americanwx model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks pretty good for the western piedmont and mountains. Puts southern Virginia back in some heavier snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Doesn't the GFS underestimate CAD usually? If so, wouldn't things be driven further south like the Euro and not plow through the wedge? Yes, I believe so. This makes me wary of the GFS getting the coup on this storm, unlike yesterday where the cold air supply was biased to be overdone/suppressed on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Doesn't the GFS underestimate CAD usually? If so, wouldn't things be driven further south like the Euro and not plow through the wedge? Yes it does that's why I'm leaning on the Euro to be the right model in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Didn't all the models trend north in the last couple of days with the last system, especially the EURO? Holding out hope for you NC guys but the start of a northward trend would be very concerning to me. Too bad. I was wanting to go chasing this weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Didn't all the models trend north in the last couple of days with the last system, especially the EURO? Holding out hope for you NC guys but the start of a northward trend would be very concerning to me. Too bad. I was wanting to go chasing this weekend too. If the HP is strong enough I think it would keep the SLP pushed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FWIW- JB after 12z Euro Run euro is making mistake on upper low in my opinion that upper low should lift to over the Delmarva. I think this is an error here 132 the upper feature is likely to be near the mouth of the Delaware not reforming to the south. Put it this way, I dont recall seeing something like this. Once the feedback starts, the storm should pull the upper feature in, so a deeper upper feature at the north side of the elongated feature is what I think we see at 192, expect a single deeper feature over the central Appalachians, not the Euro split The implication of the first part is just picking out details. I believe this storm and then the next will in many cases put people from the Tenn valley ne into New England ahead of the snow pace for our forecast, and in some cased will mean the seasonal idea is already attained. Thought I would throw this out just to calm us down some. lol He don't seem to buy the Euro solution........ So what does that mean for our area? Like many others i've saw some snow maps that look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If the HP is strong enough I think it would keep the SLP pushed south let's hope this is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So what does that mean for our area? Like many others i've saw some snow maps that look great. I take it as the snow will probably be north of us? He don't believe the southern most Euro run. (I think) I could be wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I take it as the snow will probably be north of us? He don't believe the southern most Euro run. (I think) I could be wrong.... Hope JB is wrong, it's time us in the southeast have a perfectly tracking Miller A storm which would pull the little extra cold air we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I take it as the snow will probably be north of us? He don't believe the southern most Euro run. (I think) I could be wrong.... Yeah, but it's JB and he's forecasting a hit for the entire I-95 corridor, which always raises red flags since he always tends to do this to generate new subscribers. I mean, he may be right, but I am not worried about it because I often question his motives. And here's the 21z SREF at hr 87... quite a bit south... but it's the hr 87 SREF. Looks to have a split of members going into W TN and another group in S GA, if I understand it right (given the higher spread in those two areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah, but it's JB and he's forecasting a hit for the entire I-95 corridor, which always raises red flags since he always tends to do this to generate new subscribers. I mean, he may be right, but I am not worried about it because I often question his motives. And here's the 21z SREF at hr 87... quite a bit south... but it's the hr 87 SREF. Yes I understand, I like to watch his videos and blog, just to try and pick up some clues for down south... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 let's hope this is the case. Probably depends on the strength of the low as well. Even a strong high will struggle I think to push a strong low further south. Unless we are talking 1040+. Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Damaging wind threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Has anyone ever done or found a study about which GEFS members are the most accurate? There were about 3 in there that I definitely would like to toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Probably depends on the strength of the low as well. Even a strong high will struggle I think to push a strong low further south. Unless we are talking 1040+. Just my 2 cents. Your 2 cents worth is more like 1000 dollars as it is spot on correct. Money post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nam looks interesting. Looks like it's digging more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nam takes primary into central tenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 850s look cold enough for northern mountains to support snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.