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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Dgex snow map looks better for NC areas north and west of I-40/85. However, when I looked at both the 850's and 2-meter temps, I was not impressed. At first glance, the track of the low looks similar to other models. That's about all of the DGEX breakdown we need. In fact, that was probably too much.

What run were you looking at?

 

eta.totsnow192.gif

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Didn't all the models trend north in the last couple of days with the last system, especially the EURO? Holding out hope for you NC guys but the start of a northward trend would be very concerning to me. Too bad. I was wanting to go chasing this weekend too.

If the HP is strong enough I think it would keep the SLP pushed south

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FWIW- JB after 12z Euro Run

euro is making mistake on upper low in my opinion

that upper low should lift to over the Delmarva. I think this is an error here

132 the upper feature is likely to be near the mouth of the Delaware not reforming to the south. Put it this way, I dont recall seeing something like this. Once the feedback starts, the storm should pull the upper feature in, so a deeper upper feature at the north side of the elongated feature is what I think we see

at 192, expect a single deeper feature over the central Appalachians, not the Euro split

The implication of the first part is just picking out details. I believe this storm and then the next will in many cases put people from the Tenn valley ne into New England ahead of the snow pace for our forecast, and in some cased will mean the seasonal idea is already attained.

Thought I would throw this out just to calm us down some. lol He don't seem to buy the Euro solution........

So what does that mean for our area? Like many others i've saw some snow maps that look great.
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I take it as the snow will probably be north of us? He don't believe the southern most Euro run. (I think) I could be wrong....

Hope JB is wrong, it's time us in the southeast have a perfectly tracking Miller A storm which would pull the little extra cold air we need.

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I take it as the snow will probably be north of us? He don't believe the southern most Euro run. (I think) I could be wrong....

 

Yeah, but it's JB and he's forecasting a hit for the entire I-95 corridor, which always raises red flags since he always tends to do this to generate new subscribers.  I mean, he may be right, but I am not worried about it because I often question his motives.

 

And here's the 21z SREF at hr 87... quite a bit south... but it's the hr 87 SREF.  :lmao:

 

ifz6dc.gif

 

Looks to have a split of members going into W TN and another group in S GA, if I understand it right (given the higher spread in those two areas).

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Yeah, but it's JB and he's forecasting a hit for the entire I-95 corridor, which always raises red flags since he always tends to do this to generate new subscribers.  I mean, he may be right, but I am not worried about it because I often question his motives.

 

And here's the 21z SREF at hr 87... quite a bit south... but it's the hr 87 SREF.  :lmao:

 

 

Yes I understand, I like to watch his videos and blog, just to try and pick up some clues for down south... lol

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