downeastnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So it's the GFS versus.....well every other model haha. If the GFS was the one showing snow for us it would be thrown out. What's different? It just spanked all those other models on this past weekends storm for one. Its been pretty consistent with this solution of a MA and north threat for awhile now while the other models are moving around with the low placement etc....The fact its not moving much run to run is not a good thing....even less of a transfer in the 18Z GFS run as well, low travels directly over NC this would be all rain for just about everyone in NC except the higher mts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It just spanked all those other models on this past weekends storm for one. Its been pretty consistent with this solution of a MA and north threat for awhile now while the other models are moving around with the low placement etc....The fact its not moving much is not a good thing....even less of a transfer in the 18Z GFS run as well, low travels directly over NC this would be all rain for just about everyone in NC except the higher mts.... Actually 2 degrees colder in the CAD areas this run.. Interesting but not surprising as CAD always shows stronger closer to event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well right now we have the gfs, cmc, and I believe the ukie all cutting with a miller b type storm. Then we everyone's favorite, euro showing a the southern track miller a. Am I remembering this correctly? It'll be interesting to see how this one turns out. well wasn't the Euro the King on this last storm, all i read was Hale the King Euro and you know it was the right model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WAA just absolutely screws us RDU on east. 850s at 8C is just brutal to see within 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well right now we have the gfs, cmc, and I believe the ukie all cutting with a miller b type storm. Then we everyone's favorite, euro showing a the southern track miller a. Am I remembering this correctly? It'll be interesting to see how this one turns out. I don't think the Euro was showing a true Miller A. As far as the 18z GFS goes, it's a perfectly valid solution. The take-away should be that there is a lot of uncertainty still. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 FWIW- JB after 12z Euro Run euro is making mistake on upper low in my opinion that upper low should lift to over the Delmarva. I think this is an error here 132 the upper feature is likely to be near the mouth of the Delaware not reforming to the south. Put it this way, I dont recall seeing something like this. Once the feedback starts, the storm should pull the upper feature in, so a deeper upper feature at the north side of the elongated feature is what I think we see at 192, expect a single deeper feature over the central Appalachians, not the Euro split The implication of the first part is just picking out details. I believe this storm and then the next will in many cases put people from the Tenn valley ne into New England ahead of the snow pace for our forecast, and in some cased will mean the seasonal idea is already attained. Thought I would throw this out just to calm us down some. lol He don't seem to buy the Euro solution........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Great Post CR! I don't think the Euro was showing a true Miller A.As far as the 18z GFS goes, it's a perfectly valid solution. The take-away should be that there is a lot of uncertainty still. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't think the Euro was showing a true Miller A. As far as the 18z GFS goes, it's a perfectly valid solution. The take-away should be that there is a lot of uncertainty still. Nothing more, nothing less. Yeah, I agree. It wasn't a true miller a. The transfer was just further south but it is the only model showing this solution right now. If it ends up being correct, props to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 well wasn't the Euro the King on this last storm, all i read was Hale the King Euro and you know it was the right model.No the Euro got spanked on the last storm. It put the system in Cuba for several days. Anyways. While I don't like the 18z right now you can't throw it out because you don't like it either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It just spanked all those other models on this past weekends storm for one. Its been pretty consistent with this solution of a MA and north threat for awhile now while the other models are moving around with the low placement etc....The fact its not moving much run to run is not a good thing....even less of a transfer in the 18Z GFS run as well, low travels directly over NC this would be all rain for just about everyone in NC except the higher mts.... If there is CAD established over NC you will see more of a transfer of low pressure from TN to the coast. One bias of the GFS is to ram low pressure through the wedge eroding it way too quickly. However this would still mean a lot of WAA above the surface and cut down on snow totals leading to more of an icy situation for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually 2 degrees colder in the CAD areas this run.. Interesting but not surprising as CAD always shows stronger closer to event. Dunno this seems pretty much all rain to me...will see some snow on the backside but all in all this is 95% rainstorm for NC with a tease of flakes at the end for some....I guess we see what the CAD can do, the models do way underdo them usually.....but its hard to look at these maps and have any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No the Euro got spanked on the last storm. It put the system in Cuba for several days. Anyways. While I don't like the 18z right now you can't throw it out because you don't like it either lol. oh sorry, thought the Euro was king on that one. well go figure. well let's just hope the gfs is out to lunch for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dunno this seems pretty much all rain to me...will see some snow on the backside but all in all this is 95% rainstorm for NC with a tease of flakes at the end for some....I guess we see what the CAD can do, the models do way underdo them usually.....but its hard to look at these maps and have any hope. GFS Rain.png GFS DP.png In the above map you can already see the pink hues showing up along the eastern side of the apps. I think you'll see that trend more expansive in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If it were any model but the euro holding out I'd towel-toss pretty much right now. Let's see the GEFS coming out and Euro 0z , plus its 0z ensembles. If they all three read further south I'm still in, but believe either the 0z/06z GFS will begin to cave south or the others will cave more nw. Doubt we're here tomorrow with same disparities we have currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 In the above map you can already see the pink hues showing up along the eastern side of the apps. I think you'll see that trend more expansive in subsequent runs. Those where blue and covered more area last run....the trend is not your friend on the GFS right now at all.....at this point we need to see the Euro shift south more at 00Z and then the GFS cave completely to that....if this storm does form a new low somewhere along the GA/SC coast that then tracks offshore and up the coast its over for everyone outside of the NC mts and foothills....and even then they are likely gonna have mixing issues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GFS could be closer than the Euro to be correct, but if someone has ever seen a surface low plow through the Smokies like that please correct me if you know an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hope the GFS was a one hit wonder with the last system and the Euro is right this time. Would suck to not get a good snow after what the Euro has been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z GEFS mean is pretty similar to the 12z run. It might be a tad warmer/more amped (which you'd expect... the operational models don't operate in a vacuum), though it's also slower, which makes it hard to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I wouldn't blindly discount the GFS quite yet for sure. However this IS a different situation and setup vs last...WE are not talking about a southern vort that has to attach to the flow..etc...doc's bias played right into its bogus outcome. (ie when it was too far south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS mean is farther south with the 500mb low than the Op- but a fair amount of spread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS mean is farther south with the 500mb low than the Op- but a fair amount of spread.....Seems to have been the theme of the day on all models, mean/ensembles South of op runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone have more specifics on the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 8 of the 21 members still show significant snow for mountains and Central-SW VA, 3 members show significant snow into piedmont and foothills North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the King is being dethroned this year and think we can toss the EURO unless something drastic changes. Color me surprised that it will get beat by the Goofy two storms in a row (at least track wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 A couple of best-case tracks for nc in the 18z GEFS individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Snowfall 18z GEFS members. Piedmont isn't out if it by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I would like to order 1 e-9 please. There's still quite a few members that show rain in the mountains. I don't think that even the mountains are safe yet from rain. But I'm not sure if any of the GFS members are as bad looking as the GFS op outside of maybe 1 or 2. Gonna be interesting for the late night runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If I can just get 4 inches out of this storm in the foothills(Hickory) I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS looks better than i expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How do you think things a trending?If say sloppy mix of sleet / zr at best case scenario ( if you like wintry wx) / most likely , just a cold rain. Wraparound snow works out about once in a thousand chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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