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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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So it's the GFS versus.....well every other model haha. If the GFS was the one showing snow for us it would be thrown out. What's different?

 

It just spanked all those other models on this past weekends storm for one. Its been pretty consistent with this solution of a MA and north threat for awhile now while the other models are moving around with the low placement etc....The fact its not moving much run to run is not a good thing....even less of a transfer in the 18Z GFS run as well, low travels directly over NC this would be all rain for just about everyone in NC except the higher mts....

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It just spanked all those other models on this past weekends storm for one. Its been pretty consistent with this solution of a MA and north threat for awhile now while the other models are moving around with the low placement etc....The fact its not moving much is not a good thing....even less of a transfer in the 18Z GFS run as well, low travels directly over NC this would be all rain for just about everyone in NC except the higher mts....

Actually 2 degrees colder in the CAD areas this run.. Interesting but not surprising as CAD always shows stronger closer to event.

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Well right now we have the gfs, cmc, and I believe the ukie all cutting with a miller b type storm.  Then we everyone's favorite, euro showing a the southern track miller a.  Am I remembering this correctly? It'll be interesting to see how this one turns out.

well wasn't the Euro the King on this last storm, all i read was Hale the King Euro and you know it was the right model.

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Well right now we have the gfs, cmc, and I believe the ukie all cutting with a miller b type storm. Then we everyone's favorite, euro showing a the southern track miller a. Am I remembering this correctly? It'll be interesting to see how this one turns out.

I don't think the Euro was showing a true Miller A.

As far as the 18z GFS goes, it's a perfectly valid solution. The take-away should be that there is a lot of uncertainty still. Nothing more, nothing less.

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FWIW- JB after 12z Euro Run

 

 

 euro is making mistake on upper low in my opinion

that upper low should lift to over the Delmarva. I think this is an error here

132 the upper feature is likely to be near the mouth of the Delaware not reforming to the south. Put it this way, I dont recall seeing something like this. Once the feedback starts, the storm should pull the upper feature in, so a deeper upper feature at the north side of the elongated feature is what I think we see

at 192, expect a single deeper feature over the central Appalachians, not the Euro split

 

 

The implication of the first part is just picking out details. I believe this storm and then the next will in many cases put people from the Tenn valley ne into New England ahead of the snow pace for our forecast, and in some cased will mean the seasonal idea is already attained.

 

Thought I would throw this out just to calm us down some. lol  He don't seem to buy the Euro solution........

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I don't think the Euro was showing a true Miller A.

As far as the 18z GFS goes, it's a perfectly valid solution. The take-away should be that there is a lot of uncertainty still. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Yeah, I agree. It wasn't a true miller a.  The transfer was just further south but it is the only model showing this solution right now.  If it ends up being correct, props to the euro.

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well wasn't the Euro the King on this last storm, all i read was Hale the King Euro and you know it was the right model.

No the Euro got spanked on the last storm. It put the system in Cuba for several days. Anyways. While I don't like the 18z right now you can't throw it out because you don't like it either lol.
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It just spanked all those other models on this past weekends storm for one. Its been pretty consistent with this solution of a MA and north threat for awhile now while the other models are moving around with the low placement etc....The fact its not moving much run to run is not a good thing....even less of a transfer in the 18Z GFS run as well, low travels directly over NC this would be all rain for just about everyone in NC except the higher mts....

If there is CAD established over NC you will see more of a transfer of low pressure from TN to the coast. One bias of the GFS is to ram low pressure through the wedge eroding it way too quickly. However this would still mean a lot of WAA above the surface and cut down on snow totals leading to more of an icy situation for many.

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Actually 2 degrees colder in the CAD areas this run.. Interesting but not surprising as CAD always shows stronger closer to event.

 

Dunno this seems pretty much all rain to me...will see some snow on the backside but all in all this is 95% rainstorm for NC with a tease of flakes at the end for some....I guess we see what the CAD can do, the models do way underdo them usually.....but its hard to look at these maps and have any hope.

 

 

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No the Euro got spanked on the last storm. It put the system in Cuba for several days. Anyways. While I don't like the 18z right now you can't throw it out because you don't like it either lol.

oh sorry, thought the Euro was king on that one.  well go figure.  well let's just hope the gfs is out to lunch for now

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Dunno this seems pretty much all rain to me...will see some snow on the backside but all in all this is 95% rainstorm for NC with a tease of flakes at the end for some....I guess we see what the CAD can do, the models do way underdo them usually.....but its hard to look at these maps and have any hope.

GFS Rain.png

GFS DP.png

In the above map you can already see the pink hues showing up along the eastern side of the apps. I think you'll see that trend more expansive in subsequent runs.

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If it were any model but the euro holding out I'd towel-toss pretty much right now.  Let's see the GEFS coming out and Euro 0z , plus its 0z ensembles.  If they all three read further south I'm still in, but believe either the 0z/06z GFS will begin to cave south or the others will cave more nw.  

 

Doubt we're here tomorrow with same disparities we have currently. 

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In the above map you can already see the pink hues showing up along the eastern side of the apps. I think you'll see that trend more expansive in subsequent runs.

 

Those where blue and covered more area last run....the trend is not your friend on the GFS right now at all.....at this point we need to see the Euro shift south more at 00Z and then the GFS cave completely to that....if this storm does form a new low somewhere along the GA/SC coast  that then tracks offshore and up the coast its over for everyone outside of the NC mts and foothills....and even then they are likely gonna have mixing issues.....

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I wouldn't blindly discount the GFS quite yet for sure.  However this IS a different situation and setup vs last...WE are not talking about a southern vort that has to attach to the flow..etc...doc's bias played right into its bogus outcome.  (ie when it was too far south)

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I would like to order 1 e-9 please. There's still quite a few members that show rain in the mountains. I don't think that even the mountains are safe yet from rain. But I'm not sure if any of the GFS members are as bad looking as the GFS op outside of maybe 1 or 2. Gonna be interesting for the late night runs.

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