nchighcountrywx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The actual big storm for DC and the NE came up west of Hatteras last night Image courtesy of Joe Bastardi and Weatherbell Backend through NE NC later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I can confirm this backend stuff has made it to the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Kudos to NWS GSP for a Good Call with the Storm Thanks to NWS GSP for providing superb balanced guidance on this storm. They were spot on with discounting models such as th ECMWF that were showing unrealistic Precip and Snow Totals outside of the mountains and immediate foothills. Their heavily weighting of NAM was a good call. Always count on the pros when the weather really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yes, they were pretty spot on. Certainly a reminder of the difference between the Pros and the hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Kudos to NWS GSP for a Good Call with the Storm Thanks to NWS GSP for providing superb balanced guidance on this storm. They were spot on with discounting models such as th ECMWF that were showing unrealistic Precip and Snow Totals outside of the mountains and immediate foothills. Their heavily weighting of NAM was a good call. Always count on the pros when the weather really matters. Absolutely spot on. Pretty much a perfect forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Thanks Jet! I appreciate this! I second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Decent rate of snow SCVA. Picking up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Decent rate of snow SCVA. Picking up in intensity. that is the band hrrr has rotating down to the rdu area, should be good rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 that is the band hrrr has rotating down to the rdu area, should be good rates! Definitely zero falling as anything but snow. Do you have an updated HRRR map for today you can share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Definitely zero falling as anything but snow. Do you have an updated HRRR map for today you can share? latest. drop .5" or so in wake with isolated 1-2" amounts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Kudos to NWS GSP for a Good Call with the Storm Thanks to NWS GSP for providing superb balanced guidance on this storm. They were spot on with discounting models such as th ECMWF that were showing unrealistic Precip and Snow Totals outside of the mountains and immediate foothills. Their heavily weighting of NAM was a good call. Always count on the pros when the weather really matters. Yep, at the end of the day these guys are the best! Some great winter forecasters over there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Well my prediction of snow all the way down to Charleston and up to ILM has been confirmed. Just went out here in the ILM area and seen some flurries. Nothing special being from Fayetteville, NC I have seen my fair share of huge storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swiftcreek Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Interesting map. You can tell where the mostly IP/mostly ZR line was right over the Triangle by looking at the Progress Energy map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The actual big storm for DC and the NE came up west of Hatteras last night Image courtesy of Joe Bastardi and Weatherbell Backend through NE NC later today Thanks! That would explain why I went above freezing briefly last evening. Track way too far west for central NC. Ah well, next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 latest. drop .5" or so in wake with isolated 1-2" amounts north. Thanks for posting Doppler. Very light snow ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 HRRR says this is it for the ATL (still seeing a few flurries though)... Well, atleast we got more than expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Kudos to NWS GSP for a Good Call with the Storm Thanks to NWS GSP for providing superb balanced guidance on this storm. They were spot on with discounting models such as th ECMWF that were showing unrealistic Precip and Snow Totals outside of the mountains and immediate foothills. Their heavily weighting of NAM was a good call. Always count on the pros when the weather really matters. Could not agree more. The forecast yesterday morning was for 5.5 to 6.5 total accumulations in my area. We ended up with 4 inches of snow and between 1-2 inches of sleet and a thin glaze of ice on the trees. 3 inches of the snow came from the wrap around last night which I can't tell you the last time that happened in this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Radar filling in a bit. A band extends roughly from Norfolk down to Durham. Raleigh area should have some soon. Richmond looks like its getting pasted right now with some moderate banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 We are in Richmond getting some nice snow right now. Sent from my XT1575 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yep, at the end of the day these guys are the best! Some great winter forecasters over there..... They were about average imo for clt. They seemed to prefer the GFS earlier on even though the Euro had the correct southern track solution all along, so they were behind a bit there I think. Then the day before they stayed with the freezing rain forecast for clt even though the trends showed clt was probably going to be either snow or sleet based on the strength of the wedge. They called the no snow correctly though, much to my sorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 They were about normal imo for clt. They rode the GFS even though the Euro had the correct southern track solution all along, so they were late to the party there. Then the day before they rode the freezing rain train for clt even though the trends showed clt was either going to be snow or sleet based on the strength of the wedge. For clt they were a bit behind the model trends I think. They called the no snow correctly though, much to my sorrow! Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Really? Great job on this event. Y'all really nailed it. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Great job on this event. Y'all really nailed it. Thank you. Thanks! We have a great team here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 They were about normal imo for clt. They rode the GFS even though the Euro had the correct southern track solution all along, so they were late to the party there. Then the day before they rode the freezing rain train for clt even though the trends showed clt was either going to be snow or sleet based on the strength of the wedge. For clt they were a bit behind the model trends I think. They called the no snow correctly though, much to my sorrow! What was the Euro's lead time for sig snow in to NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 They were about normal imo for clt. They rode the GFS even though the Euro had the correct southern track solution all along, so they were late to the party there. Then the day before they rode the freezing rain train for clt even though the trends showed clt was either going to be snow or sleet based on the strength of the wedge. For clt they were a bit behind the model trends I think. They called the no snow correctly though, much to my sorrow!Hhhmmmm, strange since just a couple days ago isohume responded specifically to you about them using all the models for their forecasts and not just one or two. I doubt isohume has the time or energy to respond with evidence to everyone who makes asinine statements, but that doesn't mean others on here don't. I don't even see how you can make a comment like that..... Below are the only call maps I have from GSP, but it's from Thursday morning at 7:44 am and they just about nailed it. It's nearly perfect for me just south of CLT. I thought it would bust at that time since the models kept increasing totals, but they were on top it for sure. As far as freezing rain etc...it's impossible to forecast exactly where different types start and stop when one county makes the difference between ZR and snow. Precip types were all over the place back and forth during this storm. BUT, the models never stopped showing freezing rain for CLT and never showed it would only be sleet and/or snow. This ZR estimate below was from Thursday night. And strength of the wedge? The 850 0 line didn't reach CLT until late last night. Below are the 850's from 6:30 pm last night and it was just starting to get to CLT. Gotta give them credit for not getting wrapped up in the hype from the models in the hours leading up to the storm like all of us and sticking to their forecasts with only minor adjustments. Definitely spot on and great forecast by them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Really?On this specific event, that's how it seemed to me. Didn't mean to say it's been done all the time. If I'm wrong I apologize. Just my opinion based on when frozen precip entered the forcast and when the GFS trended more south.Also, didn't mean to come across as disrespectful for the time and energy put into the forecast and the work you guys do. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 There were even snow flurries in the Florida panhandle AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1206 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016 .DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW. && .UPDATE...KEVX RADAR IS DETECTING THAT THE REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND OKALOOSA COUNTY IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE SET TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND IT IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE FLURRIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE INITIAL SURGES OF COLD AIR THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER HAS ENDED ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. /22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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