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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Yes sir! Congrats.

Watching and hoping it swings through my location. 

If you look at a radar loop of the upstate you see the precip bands that were moving northeast are now almost rotating back and west near the escarpment, almost like they are back building.  Has resulted in an 1" over the last hour here and still snowing moderately.  ULL is sure working its magic here.

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I believe I may be on the southern edge of the pivot point for the storm. That band over me is beginning to try and turn back. I'm hoping because the presentation of the radar looks encouraging. Hopefully the band to the west southwest of here with over perform for James, Widremann and everyone in NC.

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Agree...not sure of the proper term...but looks like some return tomorrow...it's been a sleetfest or 'crunchy snow' for me...so would love some flakes

latest hrrr gives us snow showers from 7am thru 12 and still going at that point.  hrrr did really well today so if it verifies we are in for a treat

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Hey, we'll take it...not sure about the HP, but it was a sleetfest here today...but hey it will make for great sledding tomorrow

 

We started off as snow, but quickly turned over to sleet for the rest of the day.  I was disappointed we didn't get more of a front-end thump as I expected, but oh well.  We'll get more shots at this.  I hope we can get some convective snow showers tomorrow and get lucky!  Daytime heavy snow is fun!

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We started off as snow, but quickly turned over to sleet for the rest of the day.  I was disappointed we didn't get more of a front-end thump as I expected, but oh well.  We'll get more shots at this.  I hope we can get some convective snow showers tomorrow and get lucky!  Daytime heavy snow is fun!

Agreed.  Still got some juice in this...and more to come in the days/weeks ahead

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Thanks Jet!  I appreciate this!

Not to disappoint anyone but I noticed the frame before, for 6z, still has upstate solidly in snow ( even back to GA line), but that is not going to be even close. This last band that is now in Sptbg is all she wrote. I would caution you in putting "hope" in that frame. 

 

edit: actually is has snow all the way back through NGA and into AL at 6z.

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Hey SJ, any idea where all of the "dry slots" over our area came from? Lurked here and there throughout the day and watched the free stream from TWC weather off and on, but don;t recall specific answer, mostly educated guesses. Apologies if mentioned somewhere in the history of this thread. Matthew East claimed it was not a "dry slot" as the mass had plenty of moisture. He said something on air about the lack of lift resulting in the lack of precip. I thought that with as big a system as we had it would be automatic. Sigh. Hey, we didn't lose power. I measured 2 1/2" on my snow board out back made up of mostly sleet, some snow, and some fr rain ice.

 

We started off as snow, but quickly turned over to sleet for the rest of the day.  I was disappointed we didn't get more of a front-end thump as I expected, but oh well.  We'll get more shots at this.  I hope we can get some convective snow showers tomorrow and get lucky!  Daytime heavy snow is fun!

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Hey SJ, any idea where all of the "dry slots" over our area came from? Lurked here and there throughout the day and watched the free stream from TWC weather off and on, but don;t recall specific answer, mostly educated guesses. Apologies if mentioned somewhere in the history of this thread. Matthew East claimed it was not a "dry slot" as the mass had plenty of moisture. He said something on air about the lack of lift resulting in the lack of precip. I thought that with as big a system as we had it would be automatic. Sigh. Hey, we didn't lose power. I measured 2 1/2" on my snow board out back made up of mostly sleet, some snow, and some fr rain ice.

 

I'm not really sure today.  It seemed like the WAA precip underperformed early on, which didn't help, and then we really struggled to get any appreciable precip throughout most of the afternoon, or really until the coastal got going again.  We did get hammered again this evening, but it was only for a few hours.  What was supposed to be a long-running event kind of turned into an initial lighter event this morning and then a quick-lived pounding of sleet this evening.  I figured we'd have a bit of a lull with the Miller B transfer, but not as long as we had.

 

We don't usually have a lot of Miller B storms come through here that produce, so maybe this is more typical than I realize.  Not sure.  The models sure didn't seem to pick up on it, though.  Maybe a met can chime in.

 

EDIT: I do recall reading something earlier today about some Gulf convective thunderstorms robbing moisture, too, which is generally always an issue it seems like at times.

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Not to disappoint anyone but I noticed the frame before, for 6z, still has upstate solidly in snow ( even back to GA line), but that is not going to be even close. This last band that is now in Sptbg is all she wrote. I would caution you in putting "hope" in that frame. 

 

edit: actually is has snow all the way back through NGA and into AL at 6z.

 

Keep in mind this is showing a 6 hour period. so its just showing areas where there could be precip. Also the low is changing as the coastal continues to deepen. So later we see this frame where the northeast corner of NC has a chance to pick up some snow showers due to the proximity of the slp. Yet still, its good advice not to put too much hope in any of it. Still interesting though.  ^_^

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_3.png

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The latest HRRR and RAP runs show that business is about to pick up for the Triad and eventually Raleigh in the next hour or two.

 

The latest run prints out 1-2" of snow for portions of the Triad down into Randolph County.  Time to see if it's for real.  It should be starting in the next hour.  I am not seeing much evidence on radar yet...

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Not to disappoint anyone but I noticed the frame before, for 6z, still has upstate solidly in snow ( even back to GA line), but that is not going to be even close. This last band that is now in Sptbg is all she wrote. I would caution you in putting "hope" in that frame.

edit: actually is has snow all the way back through NGA and into AL at 6z.

Wrong!! Wake up and look outside!
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