WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR implies ZR to sleet for at least the western part of the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 925 analysis shows roughly below freezing surface temps. It should erode some to the north and west for the next 4-6 hours before retreating again as the slp strengthens and pulls east, but nothing like the waa the NAM showed yesterday where GSO and even further west went above freezing. 925 is not surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know, that's why I said roughly. Just didn't have a good surface map handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 it is 32 and rising at the airport, they said that should limit any addnl ice, but points north and west should stay below freezing I hope they're right and there isn't much more accrual in RDU. I'd settle for all sleet or all rain if I could. Frz only looks pretty if your power is still on! Yeah, just heard Wral say that the patchy is already trying to fill back in and we can expect this until about 10pm. He said north Raleigh will likely stay below freezing. Only rain trans in southern wake. That would even be short. Back to freezing. Then, he said he thinks we will get the back in snow showers/flurries tomorrow. I'm in NW Raleigh. Still 30. I know this is banner and has been said many times before. But Wake is always somehow in the transition zone. Every. Single. Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How far west of the Triangle does the ZR and sleet extend, according to the HRRR? Not as far as the Triad once the band you're under moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So, I thought IMBY comments were verboten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 22z RAP would suggest the potential for a changeover to rate-dependent snow for GSO/INT around 01z. There's still a small <0.5C warm nose at 825 mb, but I think that could possibly be overcome with rates. Without rates, that's sleet, though. We'll see. Pretty potent warm nose overhead right now, in any case. It certainly brings the juice with a lot of precip. I am kind of in a believe it when I see it mode right now, but nevertheless that is what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Maybe an exception? People beginning to worry about power outages now in the evening, not play snow amounts I was under the impression that this was the section for technical discussions and analysis. See James comment above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 wow! thundersleet in brier creek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 22z RAP would suggest the potential for a changeover to rate-dependent snow for GSO/INT around 01z. There's still a small <0.5C warm nose at 825 mb, but I think that could possibly be overcome with rates. Without rates, that's sleet, though. We'll see. Pretty potent warm nose overhead right now, in any case. It certainly brings the juice with a lot of precip. I assume in that case that the Burlington/Mebane area would be sleet for the duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 22z RAP would suggest the potential for a changeover to rate-dependent snow for GSO/INT around 01z. There's still a small <0.5C warm nose at 825 mb, but I think that could possibly be overcome with rates. Without rates, that's sleet, though. We'll see. Pretty potent warm nose overhead right now, in any case. It certainly brings the juice with a lot of precip. I am kind of in a believe it when I see it mode right now, but nevertheless that is what it shows. Same here. Models have been saying precip would blossom but still yet to see it happen. Hopefully the match gets struck soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know, that's why I said roughly. Just didn't have a good surface map handy. The same site has surface temps. Just choose the surface option top left and the sfc/wind/dpt option. It's retreated a lot from earlier today in eastern and eastern central parts of NC. More surprisingly to me, the 850 has nearly made it to Mecklenburg and Union border when we were +4 earlier. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mods lost power maybe? Nope. would you like a warning as proof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So, I thought IMBY comments were verboten? They are Listen up folks....keep the discussion on topic. We are all tired of deleting the crap out of the discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The same site has surface temps. Just choose the surface option top left and the sfc/wind/dpt option. It's retreated a lot from earlier today in eastern and eastern central parts of NC. More surprisingly to me, the 850 has nearly made it to Mecklenburg and Union border when we were +4 earlier. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wonderful, thank you. Been chasing this one a bit long I think. Yes the 850s are really crashing out west. If the coastal gets cranking that will be even more dynamic I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This band looks to be heading too far NW for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This band looks to be heading too far NW for the Triangle. sure does, hrrr really over did precip it looks like with this last band. snow showers look decent for tomorrow morn though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I believe the batch of rain coming up between Fayetteville and Wilmington may fill in and head for the Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Actually, radar decided to fill in. Won't be great, but may be enough to lay down a quick quarter inch of sleetiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 998mb low cranking the n the Atlantic. One would think that somebody will benefit from back building precip and a pivot. Who will it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 998mb low cranking the n the Atlantic. One would think that somebody will benefit from back building precip and a pivot. Who will it be? The RAP and HRRR give us some pretty good precip over the next two and a half hours and backbuild the band we're in. I am a bit doubtful as we're getting close to the western edge, though. In any case, the RAP soundings (which currently show a warm nose from 750-850 mb) have Greensboro/Winston-Salem moving into a snow sounding over the next hour or two, so we might have a shot at ending with snow. I guess we'll see. I'm certainly not expecting much other than more sleet. It also looks like there could be a band of snow that cuts down into N NC overnight in the 3 AM area. We'll see, though, as that's awhile off and probably wouldn't be heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Quick Video Update From Brad P. : https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1011735095565613 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFDDeac Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lewisville, NC transitioned to all snow around 7:15pm. We're at 24F, about 6.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Commence back building! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 [quote name="superjames1992" post="3913560" timestamp= It also looks like there could be a band of snow that cuts down into N NC overnight in the 3 AM area. We'll see, though, as that's awhile off and probably wouldn't be heavy. snow on top would be awesome ::: it's like Iowa out here lol .. sideways sleet/snow. and have noticed all day when in an"dry slot" precip is still falling ..: what an awesome storm this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The HRRR got it right with this last band. I'll be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Wrap around incoming...returns over GA and CAE are headed for RDU and points west. Depending on timing, could get an additional 0.10"-0.15" ZR overnight and a good dusting tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 If you look at a radar loop of the upstate you see the precip bands that were moving northeast are now almost rotating back and west near the escarpment, almost like they are back building. Has resulted in an 1" over the last hour here and still snowing moderately. ULL is sure working its magic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Wrap around incoming...returns over GA and CAE are headed for RDU and points west. Depending on timing, could get an additional 0.10"-0.15" ZR overnight and a good dusting tomorrow morning Jon, Have to wonder if that will hold its moisture through the Triangle. Batch we're getting now looks like the end for quite awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The HRRR got it right with this last band. I'll be damned. Indeed. Have to remember this for the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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