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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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GSP upped totals around this area SKIP. 3-5" this afternoon and 3-5" tonight. I think Shelby was 2-4" afternoon and 3-5" tonight. I was shocked but short range models are really trying to key on where it comes through. 

20z RAP shows it still snowing in CLT/Shelby corridor at 2 a.m.

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Wow. Well, I'd take the "under" on those but we shall see! Hope you hit a grand slam!

 

GSP upped totals around this area SKIP. 3-5" this afternoon and 3-5" tonight. I think Shelby was 2-4" afternoon and 3-5" tonight. I was shocked but short range models are really trying to key on where it comes through. 

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Looks like the coastal is taking over near SAV.  Not bad.  Further south than I was expecting.  Let's see what we can do now.  Radar should start to blossom soon.

Yeah, most models had it reforming 50 miles below myrtle beach I believe. This is not your typical Miller B I guess with the low forming in central Georgia. I wonder how fast it wraps up and the snow line crashes in towards the low.

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Looks like the coastal is taking over near SAV.  Not bad.  Further south than I was expecting.  Let's see what we can do now.  Radar should start to blossom soon.

 

James, think we can get rid of this pesky sleet after 7:00 or so? If so, that'd potentially give us another 12-18 hours of snow, regardless of rates and such. That'd certainly make me feel a little better about my measley 6.5" of my forecasted 12-20". :lol:

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Brad P calling for 1-4 inches of additional snow/sleet for the CLT metro and .25-.30 of ice. Seems aggressive, but I guess not if we get into the heavy banding.

 

Also showing possible thundersnow/sleet

 

 

If anywhere near accurate / useful, this doesn't bode well for central NC:

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/A_w_sfc_color.png

 

 

Can you elaborate?

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James, think we can get rid of this pesky sleet after 7:00 or so? If so, that'd potentially give us another 12-18 hours of snow, regardless of rates and such. That'd certainly make me feel a little better about my measley 6.5" of my forecasted 12-20". :lol:

You think that coastal low gonna throw moisture all the way back here? It could but not usually? 

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Looks like the coastal is taking over near SAV.  Not bad.  Further south than I was expecting.  Let's see what we can do now.  Radar should start to blossom soon.

 

I would think it would get cranking quickly w/ the above average waters temps in the Atlantic but I'm not sure if that'll influence temps inland.

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WRAL headline states sleet has transitioned to rain. Maybe that wraps things up for us here in the triangle and we can keep our power. Radar looks dead this way as well and temps likely to climb overnight.

abc 11 said temps are at 32 and should hit 33 in the rdu area and any addnl ice accretion should be minimized.

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WRAL headline states sleet has transitioned to rain. Maybe that wraps things up for us here in the triangle and we can keep our power. Radar looks dead this way as well and temps likely to climb overnight.

It said the transition would be in southern Wake. I think that we are stuck with sleet and freezing rain in N. Wake.

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WRAL headline states sleet has transitioned to rain. Maybe that wraps things up for us here in the triangle and we can keep our power. Radar looks dead this way as well and temps likely to climb overnight.

Alright. I'll take the bait. 

 

The headline states that sleet is transitioning to rain, not that it already has done so. The headline most likely is a result of this update on their site:

 

"UPDATE 4:15 p.m.: WRAL meteorologist Nate Johnson said precipitation in the Triangle is changing from sleet to rain, causing wet roads across the area."

 

WRAL's current forecast on their site for overnight says "Rain changing back over to snow for much of the area, with rain hanging on south and east of the Triangle. Lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees."

 

 Long story short, if you think this thing is over and that we're just going to have a sloppy cold rain around here, that's fine. Everybody's got an opinion and you could even be right. But the source your using seems to state differently.  :whistle:

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Yeah, just heard Wral say that the patchy is already trying to fill back in and we can expect this until about 10pm. He said north Raleigh will likely stay below freezing. Only rain trans in southern wake. That would even be short. Back to freezing. Then, he said he thinks we will get the back in snow showers/flurries tomorrow.

I'm in NW Raleigh. Still 30.

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Alright. I'll take the bait. 

 

The headline states that sleet is transitioning to rain, not that it already has done so. The headline most likely is a result of this update on their site:

 

"UPDATE 4:15 p.m.: WRAL meteorologist Nate Johnson said precipitation in the Triangle is changing from sleet to rain, causing wet roads across the area."

 

WRAL's current forecast on their site for overnight says "Rain changing back over to snow for much of the area, with rain hanging on south and east of the Triangle. Lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees."

 

 Long story short, if you think this thing is over and that we're just going to have a sloppy cold rain around here, that's fine. Everybody's got an opinion and you could even be right. But the source your using seems to state differently.  :whistle:

it is 32 and rising at the airport, they said that should limit any addnl ice, but points north and west should stay below freezing

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Yeah, just heard Wral say that the patchy is already trying to fill back in and we can expect this until about 10pm. He said north Raleigh will likely stay below freezing. Only rain trans in southern wake. That would even be short. Back to freezing. Then, he said he thinks we will get the back in snow showers/flurries tomorrow.

I'm in NW Raleigh. Still 30.

The radar is starting to blossom.

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Once the low transfers completely in the next 3 hours radar should build in and by 9pm models (HRRR/RAP) have RDU getting 0.56" ZR from 9-10pm...hopefully it's just all rain, because that's absurd. 850mb moisture transport is insane, radar should blow up next two hours.

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