packfan98 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just a note for you Triad peeps. The 12z Euro mauls us with the deformation band this evening from 00zish through maybe 08z. We'll see if it happens, but it's a lot of smow if it does. Doent sleep on the possibility. Remember what happened to Big Frosty and company in February 2014. Do you think it will be sleet or snow? Some of the future radar models I've seen doesn't change us back to snow until well after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 how far west? Your area doesn't get the full brunt of it, but these things are hard to nail down, so it could easily set up closer to your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Do you think it will be sleet or snow? Some of the future radar models I've seen doesn't change us back to snow until well after midnight. Looks like it would be mostly snow, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 ... PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS. DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES COULD EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. ..BROYLES.. 01/22/2016 5/100s of an inch??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR: The just sits here for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Feb 2014 deform band was the greatest thing I'd ever seen. Went from 4" to 11" in no time. We'll need it again this time, if we want any further snow west of 77... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just a note for you Triad peeps. The 12z Euro mauls us with the deformation band this evening from 00zish through maybe 08z. We'll see if it happens, but it's a lot of snow if it does. Don't sleep on the possibility. Remember what happened to Big Frosty and company in February 2014. how far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I captured the 2014 February storm and this one. The returns look very similar but I believe the dynamics for these to storms doesn't make for a neat comparison? History does repeat itself, but never exactly the same way. Any professionals willing to add their thoughts about the differences in the two storms as portrayed by the radar return? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 how far east? You'd be mostly in it, too. I wouldn't worry too much about positioning yet, but just that it very well may happen. The Euro nailed this in February 2014, which is why I mention this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1002mb over Fort Valley GA. Looks like a SE movement to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow hole over CLT is definitely similar. Ed: I think I was thinking of last year...not '14 I captured the 2014 February storm and this one. The returns look very similar but I believe the dynamics for these to storms doesn't make for a neat comparison? History does repeat itself, but never exactly the same way. Any professionals willing to add their thoughts about the differences in the two storms as portrayed by the radar return? Thanks! 2014.2016.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 what is he even talking about? Actually, it was you and Wildre. You said the RAP had a lot of freezing rain for RDU, and he said something else showed most of it staying south and east of RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 5/100s of an inch??? The way this storm's been, that's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR: The just sits here for hours What time frame is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Actually, it was you and Wildre. You said the RAP had a lot of freezing rain for RDU, and he said something else showed most of it staying south and east of RDU. Dude, Widre said the freezing line, not the freezing rain itself . He and Jon were saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am building me a rain man out in the yard with all this cold rain we are getting in the ILM area. Nice steady....cold....rain. I will take pictures lol. Hopefully we get some back end snow but hey cold rain will be just fine I guess. :+( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just a note for you Triad peeps. The 12z Euro mauls us with the deformation band this evening from 00zish through maybe 08z. We'll see if it happens, but it's a lot of snow if it does. Don't sleep on the possibility. Remember what happened to Big Frosty and company in February 2014. Just hope that warm nose up there that's given us all sleet is out of the way when it comes through. This sleet is like powder. Hopefully we can score a few inches. I'd be very pleased if that comes to fruition. Thankful we've had 0 frzng rain , timber is in great shape. Hanging out at 24 to 25 degrees all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the storm bombs out and stays offshore (as opposed to a weaker storm tracking through the sounds or along the coastline), would that turn us back over to sleet/snow farther east, or are the thermals screwed for us no matter what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still looks good for a backside inch in metro ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the storm bombs out and stays offshore (as opposed to a weaker storm tracking through the sounds or along the coastline), would that turn us back over to sleet/snow farther east, or are the thermals screwed for us no matter what? I'm interested in the answer to this also. I always thought the closer to the coast or slightly inland caused more mixing for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What time frame is that? One that won't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Uh oh I think the power is close to going out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the storm bombs out and stays offshore (as opposed to a weaker storm tracking through the sounds or along the coastline), would that turn us back over to sleet/snow farther east, or are the thermals screwed for us no matter what? It could keep more folks out of the thicker part of the warm nose and/or lessen the duration of the warm nose, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Precip finally looks to be rotating a little further east from out of the mountains. Hopefully, the heavier returns will be heading this way soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It could keep more folks out of the thicker part of the warm nose and/or lessen the duration of the warm nose, absolutely. Thanks! Hopefully it will do that then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One that won't verify. Good one!! I'm in your camp Widre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dude, Widre said the freezing line, not the freezing rain itself . He and Jon were saying the same thing. The HRRR keeps trending colder. Keeps RDU decently below freezing throughout. Moves ZR further south and east. Sounded to me like he was saying goes the freezing rain moves further south and east from RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is certainly waa throughout central NC. But it has not been enough to raised the 850s above freezing for the northern third and far western part of the state. Mainly due to the weak primary. If the coastal stays far enough off shore, even if it slowly deepens, we may never get the widespread waa modeled. If the CAD was weaker than modeled, so too could the WAA if the slp path is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is certainly waa throughout central NC. But it has not been enough to raised the 850s above freezing for the northern third and far western part of the state. Mainly due to the weak primary. If the coastal stays far enough off shore, even if it slowly deepens, we may never get the widespread waa modeled. If the CAD was weaker than modeled, so too could the WAA if the slp path is right. Good analysis Jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Brad P calling for 1-4 inches of additional snow/sleet for the CLT metro and .25-.30 of ice. Seems aggressive, but I guess not if we get into the heavy banding. Also showing possible thundersnow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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