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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Just a note for you Triad peeps. The 12z Euro mauls us with the deformation band this evening from 00zish through maybe 08z. We'll see if it happens, but it's a lot of smow if it does. Doent sleep on the possibility. Remember what happened to Big Frosty and company in February 2014.

Do you think it will be sleet or snow? Some of the future radar models I've seen doesn't change us back to snow until well after midnight.

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I captured the 2014 February storm and this one.  The returns look very similar but I believe the dynamics for these to storms doesn't make for a neat comparison?  History does repeat itself, but never exactly the same way.  Any professionals willing to add their thoughts about the differences in the two storms as portrayed by the radar return?  Thanks!

 

post-8756-0-09234700-1453486834_thumb.jp

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Snow hole over CLT is definitely similar.

Ed: I think I was thinking of last year...not '14

I captured the 2014 February storm and this one. The returns look very similar but I believe the dynamics for these to storms doesn't make for a neat comparison? History does repeat itself, but never exactly the same way. Any professionals willing to add their thoughts about the differences in the two storms as portrayed by the radar return? Thanks!

attachicon.gif2014.2016.jpg

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Just a note for you Triad peeps. The 12z Euro mauls us with the deformation band this evening from 00zish through maybe 08z. We'll see if it happens, but it's a lot of snow if it does. Don't sleep on the possibility. Remember what happened to Big Frosty and company in February 2014.

Just hope that warm nose up there that's given us all sleet is out of the way when it comes through. This sleet is like powder. Hopefully we can score a few inches. I'd be very pleased if that comes to fruition. Thankful we've had 0 frzng rain , timber is in great shape. Hanging out at 24 to 25 degrees all day.

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If the storm bombs out and stays offshore (as opposed to a weaker storm tracking through the sounds or along the coastline), would that turn us back over to sleet/snow farther east, or are the thermals screwed for us no matter what?

 

I'm interested in the answer to this also.  I always thought the closer to the coast or slightly inland caused more mixing for our area.

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If the storm bombs out and stays offshore (as opposed to a weaker storm tracking through the sounds or along the coastline), would that turn us back over to sleet/snow farther east, or are the thermals screwed for us no matter what?

 

It could keep more folks out of the thicker part of the warm nose and/or lessen the duration of the warm nose, absolutely.

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There is certainly waa throughout central NC. But it has not been enough to raised the 850s above freezing for the northern third and far western part of the state. Mainly due to the weak primary. If the coastal stays far enough off shore, even if it slowly deepens, we may never get the widespread waa modeled. 

 

If the CAD was weaker than modeled, so too could the WAA if the slp path is right.

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There is certainly waa throughout central NC. But it has not been enough to raised the 850s above freezing for the northern third and far western part of the state. Mainly due to the weak primary. If the coastal stays far enough off shore, even if it slowly deepens, we may never get the widespread waa modeled. 

 

If the CAD was weaker than modeled, so too could the WAA if the slp path is right.

 

 

Good analysis Jet.

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