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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Looking at the 15Z HRRR in 15-min increments, it seems it wants to put the mountains under the "pivot point" of the storm. This is the first sign I've seen of this. If that happens, 12-18" will be easily achieved.

Does that include the NW mountains ?
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HRRR trending the coastal further south.  Now has a low SE of Savannah in the next hour.

 

Forgive me if this is banter, but the 77/85 corridors typically don't receive much of the moisture fetch off the Atlantic. Are we banking on the strength of the system to throw it back this far?

 

It looks like someone is going to miss out on both the Atlantic feed and deform band, and it could certainly be SW NC.

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HRRR trending the coastal further south. Now has a low SE of Savannah in the next hour.

If that's the case and the coastal really bombs out, you think the I-85 corridor has a chance to go back over to snow? I know some of the modeling showed this, and a farther south transfer has to help.

I haven't looked at any of the modeling this morning. Guess I need to. The sleet has been frustrating so far, though it generally hasn't been very heavy precip, anyways.

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Forgive me if this is banter, but the 77/85 corridors typically don't receive much of the moisture fetch off the Atlantic. Are we banking on the strength of the system to throw it back this far?

 

It looks like someone is going to miss out on both the Atlantic feed and deform band, and it could certainly be SW NC.

It won't get too much back this far inland. People in Raleigh might do well, I am pulling for them!!

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This storm is just forming off of the coast....long ways to go yet. HRRR and RAP show increasing amounts of precip for most of central NC through the evening...unfortunately, a large swath will be freezing rain near/south/east of Raleigh to CLT. It's going to be ugly. Between RDU and GSO will be mainly sleet and NW of there snow/sleet....

 

Like I said, this is just really cranking up for central NC.....

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This storm is just forming off of the coast....long ways to go yet. HRRR and RAP show increasing amounts of precip for most of central NC through the evening...unfortunately, a large swath will be freezing rain near/south/east of Raleigh to CLT. It's going to be ugly. Between RDU and GSO will be mainly sleet and NW of there snow/sleet....

 

Like I said, this is just really cranking up for central NC.....

What about Northern foothills, coastal's usually don't throw moisture back this far? What's your thoughts on that, If you don't mind?

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This storm is just forming off of the coast....long ways to go yet. HRRR and RAP show increasing amounts of precip for most of central NC through the evening...unfortunately, a large swath will be freezing rain near/south/east of Raleigh to CLT. It's going to be ugly. Between RDU and GSO will be mainly sleet and NW of there snow/sleet....

Like I said, this is just really cranking up for central NC.....

Do you see upstate changing over to all snow with the coastal? We've had a nasty sleet/Ice storm since this has started. But temp is dropping down to 29 now and winds are howling!

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Hi all, I've been following this thread for a week now and wanted to register and say thanks for all the great information. Here is a 4K timelapse I made last night from 3 AM-8 AM in Durham NC. I grabbed all the stuff off the card and put the camera back out so hopefully once we get more precipitation I'll have another video to post :).

 

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This storm is just forming off of the coast....long ways to go yet. HRRR and RAP show increasing amounts of precip for most of central NC through the evening...unfortunately, a large swath will be freezing rain near/south/east of Raleigh to CLT. It's going to be ugly. Between RDU and GSO will be mainly sleet and NW of there snow/sleet....

 

Like I said, this is just really cranking up for central NC.....

 

Hopefully, it will stay off the coast and slowly crawl NE in order to bring central NC more sleet or snow. If not, we may be in for some power outages later tonight and that's no fun at all.

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The 500 closed off briefly last night then opened back up. It just did the same thing over the last couple of hours. Its pulsating. Looks like its trying to close off again a little further south. On the surface, the slp is elongated toward the spot where the coastal will pop soon. 

 

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