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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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4km nam rly picks up on some cooling under the extremely intense band that moves through..

attachicon.gifimage.png

Now let's see what rly falls for rdu.... Guys this is badattachicon.gifimage.png

Winds will also be gusting to 20-30mph during peak zr.... And 4km keeps surface temp below freezing the whole time.

12z gfs also picking up on this and keeps wake co below freezing with heavy heavy precip

.9 ZR for RDU?  That would be catastrophic

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Looks like the coastal doesn't really book it NE after transfer like we typically see. Hope that will lead to a prolonged moisture feed from the Atlantic even before the wrap around. Anyone else seeing this?

 

Probably still too far east for CLT and the Triad though, I would imagine.

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Looks like the coastal doesn't really book it NE after transfer like we typically see. Hope that will lead to a prolonged moisture feed from the Atlantic even before the wrap around. Anyone else seeing this?

 

Probably still too far east for CLT and the Triad though, I would imagine.

 

Oh yes. More than one model shows the coastal doing a loop or retrograde. Where that happens will make a difference. Some parts of eastern NC could get a good shot of back end snow.

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Yes, I've been telling everyone that asked on Twitter...this isn't a 'dry slot', and it is not a cutting off of the moisture source. It is a lack of dynamics. Atmosphere still supports mainly snow in the Triad for instance when the precip rates are there. 

Matthew, 

Whats up my friend?? It has been a LONG time since we corresponded. I hope all is well man! I bet they have YOU VERY BUSY ATTM! LOL. Anyway, I personally FEEL the CLT AND surrounding area(s) will see the BEST snowfall of the storm TONIGHT, into tomorrow morning (10:00amish)! I see the setup with the Deformation zone and CLT being RIGHT IN THE CROSSHAIRS, IMHO! Plotting out the tracks and KNOWING with this kind of INSANE lift available, TD's being right where they need to be, night-time, etc...we should receive an AWESOME THUMP. I BET the rapid update models start showing (if not already) this. I am almost certain that this will OVER perform. Thoughts?

Take care and hope all is well with you and your Family! 

Best regards, 

Jason 

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Matthew, 

Whats up my friend?? It has been a LONG time since we corresponded. I hope all is well man! I bet they have YOU VERY BUSY ATTM! LOL. Anyway, I personally FEEL the CLT AND surrounding area(s) will see the BEST snowfall of the storm TONIGHT, into tomorrow morning (10:00amish)! I see the setup with the Deformation zone and CLT being RIGHT IN THE CROSSHAIRS, IMHO! Plotting out the tracks and KNOWING with this kind of INSANE lift available, TD's being right where they need to be, night-time, etc...we should receive an AWESOME THUMP. I BET the rapid update models start showing (if not already) this. I am almost certain that this will OVER perform. Thoughts?

Take care and hope all is well with you and your Family! 

Best regards, 

Jason 

Love the optimism, but am going to have to disagree. The Atlantic moisture appears too far east, and the ULL too far north on the short range models for the CLT area. Hope I'm wrong.

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From ABC 33/40.  Could be important for ATL.


http://www.alabamawx.com/


As for accumulations further south in places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston, it will take heavier snow bands to produce those. Snow was falling at Starkville but having a hard time sticking because it was light in nature and the ground is warm. This will be the story until temperatures come down and you get some heavier areas of snow.


That should happen this evening in areas east of I-65 as the big winter storm ramps up for the East Coast. Snow should wrap back down into areas east of I-65 after 6 p.m. and intensify. Areas north of I-20 and east of I-65


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4.5" in Boone, epic bust here. Trump built the wall in Watauga county instead of Mexico. Moisture continues to disappear at the county line and points north.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea its a pretty odd setup for sure, the SE flow is defintely helping areas like McDowell to Henderson county.

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