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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Well, if the models didn't get the initial round of snow and precip right, then kind of hard to rely on technology to get the rest of the storm right. It seems 90% of the time the models always show more snow and precip than we actually get. So, really I guess they can only show us potential, but 90% of the time that potential doesn't work out. The thing is people are going to tune out and think the models areally crying wolf and be caught unprepared when they do get a big storm right sometime.

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Yeah this isn't a true dry slot. And these thin bands coming through knightdale pour sleet then we go to a steady freezing drizzle. The pressure falls off the sc coast are rapidly increasing and the low still isn't north E trembly far

 

Yes, I've been telling everyone that asked on Twitter...this isn't a 'dry slot', and it is not a cutting off of the moisture source. It is a lack of dynamics. Atmosphere still supports mainly snow in the Triad for instance when the precip rates are there. 

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Well, if the models didn't get the initial round of snow and precip right, then kind of hard to rely on technology to get the rest of the storm right. It seems 90% of the time the models always show more snow and precip than we actually get. So, really I guess they can only show us potential, but 90% of the time that potential doesn't work out. The thing is people are going to tune out and think the models areally crying wolf and be caught unprepared when they do get a big storm right sometime.

This is not valid logic. The models may do better or worse in different areas and aspects of a storm.

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For the record, I wasn't saying the storm was a bust in my tweet quoted above. I was really just saying that we had 'wasted' part of the storm with spotty coverage.

 

 When the radar looks like this:

NC_mosaic-33006.gif

 

And most short-range models had something like this:

mgWeb_WRF_20160122-090000_ASE_ECONUS_F00

 

It's a bit of a problem. 

I'm gonna call for you Matthew! lol, for my area. I really think there's huge potential for a bust 12-18 is what most have for my area, but with a radar like that NO WAY!! Until I can see redevelopment, call me skeptical........   Thanks for all your work and input, and thanks for posting on the board. greatly appreciated!!!

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I'm gonna call for you Matthew! lol, for my area. I really think there's huge potential for a bust 12-18 is what most have for my area, but with a radar like that NO WAY!! Until I can see redevelopment, call me skeptical........   Thanks for all your work and input, and thanks for posting on the board. greatly appreciated!!!

 

That radar is also over 2 hours old.

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The public only cares about the end result and the totals, though.

I see this point. As a meteorologist it's unfathomable how damming events forcing's arnt modeled correctly in this day and age. This is why my accumulation maps were so small for non-mtn locations. Maybe you can lobby for more spending on NCEP? Maybe one day models will get CAD forcing's right :) HRRR did really good with this system btw. 

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It looks like the secondary is going to pop up farther south closer to NE FL which will really pivot all that moisture over TN to WNC and put down a lot of snow. You can already see that strong line of precip bowing forward to make the pivot.

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If that's right, secondary over NE Fl, that should be a colder solution for folks in NC right WOW? Also on MA forum they have the NAM taking it over Hatteras and off of VB. So still pretty much an offshore solution from what I can gather. 

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****WINTER STORM WARNING****
(8+ inch snowfall possible in spots)

**WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY**
(Accumulating snow and ice in metro Atlanta)

Remember to turn on your TV for the latest in this changeable situation. Don't rely on social media only.

Snow and ice has already begun accumulating in north Georgia this morning, and it will spread into metro Atlanta today. Be prepared to get home and stay home early today. Wherever you are this evening, you may be stuck there into Saturday, perhaps even longer in the mountains.

8+ Inches of snow is possible in the NE corner of Georgia, the rest of the mountains will see a good blanket of snow, around 2-5" will be common.

In metro Atlanta, ice will begin to move in from the NE and East late this morning, changing over to snow for all of us. 1-2" snowfall will be common for the northern half (north of approx. I-20), less amounts to the south generally. Flurries are possible all they down into middle Georgia!

Glenn Burns Karen Minton Brian Monahan, WSB Katie WallsWSB-TV

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It looks like the secondary is going to pop up farther south closer to NE FL which will really pivot all that moisture over TN to WNC and put down a lot of snow. You can already see that strong line of precip bowing forward to make the pivot.

 

Have to wonder how much that line of convection is modulating where the costal energy transfer is going to occur

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This is why precip type is hard to forecast for RDU...

 

SREF 1-8pm trend for precip (mean), essentially rides that rain line late.

0RMJNZn.png

 

 

Valid at 5pm, SREF has no idea what will be falling during the heaviest moisture over RDU.

5FnlQ3c.png

 

Only the man upstairs knows how bad this storm will be wrt ice.

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Watch this video Via @ZLabe on twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CZVNqk6UEAIqne_.mp4

 

If we get dry slotted it will be likely until most precip has ended for Wake County, so early morning tomorrow. Mountains look to get a thumping on the NW side, it's not over for you Appalachian folks.

cool video, thanks for sharing! 

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****WINTER STORM WARNING****

(8+ inch snowfall possible in spots)

**WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY**

(Accumulating snow and ice in metro Atlanta)

Remember to turn on your TV for the latest in this changeable situation. Don't rely on social media only.

Snow and ice has already begun accumulating in north Georgia this morning, and it will spread into metro Atlanta today. Be prepared to get home and stay home early today. Wherever you are this evening, you may be stuck there into Saturday, perhaps even longer in the mountains.

8+ Inches of snow is possible in the NE corner of Georgia, the rest of the mountains will see a good blanket of snow, around 2-5" will be common.

In metro Atlanta, ice will begin to move in from the NE and East late this morning, changing over to snow for all of us. 1-2" snowfall will be common for the northern half (north of approx. I-20), less amounts to the south generally. Flurries are possible all they down into middle Georgia!

Glenn Burns Karen Minton Brian Monahan, WSB Katie WallsWSB-TV

 

 

Calling for ice and 2" down to I-20 is insane. The NWS FFC forecast seems much more reasonable to me.

 

But I think the garbage quality of most of ATL's on-air mets is fairly well documented at this point. You're probably better off with TWC.

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No. Earlier someone posted a link to a website that requires login credentials to open.

I have no idea why it did that....image was saved to my computer I thought. Anyway, I deleted it to avoid further issues.

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