drfranklin Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0046.html You can see the ip/frz line on the CC feed http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GSP-N0C-1-24 thank you Strong - in Greenville (SC) County, I-85 seems to be the dividing line for wintry weather - I'm beginning to worry about ice accretion for the city of Greenville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 thank you Strong - in Greenville (SC) County, I-85 seems to be the dividing line for wintry weather - I'm beginning to worry about ice accretion for the city of Greenville AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 652 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING BACK OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...MAJOR WINTER STORM UNDERWAY WITH SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF 4-5 INCHES ALREADY. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SNOW/SLEET HAS MAINLY TRANSITIONED TO FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING LINE IS HOVERING ACROSS THE UPSTATE WITH STIFF NE WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE DAMMING CONTINUES TO SET IN. WHATEVER THE TEMPERATURE IS NOW...THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE HIGH TODAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE DANGEROUS ACROSS MOST OF NC...WITH STILL A DECENT DRIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE BUT AS FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE PRODUCT SUITE AT THIS TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE ACROSS THE AREA. 04Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM UNCA HAD +2C JUST ABOVE 850MB...AND 06Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS ALSO JUST BELOW +2C JUST ABOVE 850MB BUT VERY VERY DRY. 850MB WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE WAA...AND BY 130AM THE AVL AREA HAD CHANGED OVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX...SO LATENT HEAT OF MELTING IS DEFINITELY HELPING TO ERODE THE WARM NOSE. FARTHER NORTH...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE CARE OF THE ISSUE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ICE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT WHERE THAT MID-LEVEL WAA WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONTINUED CAA AT THE SURFACE FROM THE DAMMING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING TO FREEZING BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO DRYSLOTTING PUSHING INTO WESTERN ZONES AROUND 18Z...AND MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WITHOUT MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...EVEN AREAS SEEING MAINLY A SNOW EVENT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND UPWARD MOTION FROM SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN AGAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE END. IF LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF CONVECTIVE SNOW THAT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES. SO IF YOU'RE STILL WITH ME BY THIS POINT...ALL THIS REALLY ADDS UP TO IS A VERY LONG AND DETAILED WAY TO SAY VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT SUITE OF PRODUCTS AND INFORMATION. COULD SEE A BIT OF A DELAY IN FREEZING/FROZEN PTYPE ONSET FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT END RESULT STILL THE SAME. SHOULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW/SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NC PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL IN ALL A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A LARGE SWATH OVER 1/2 INCH OF ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. REALLY SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM WPC SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS THOUGH THERE DEFINITELY COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER/LIGHTER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTIVE BANDS SET UP. WITH THESE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AND WINTRY PRECIP HAVING ALREADY BEGUN...PREPARATIONS FOR THE WINTER STORM SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE AND FROM HERE ON OUT...ANY TRAVEL SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the forecast track of the low is up the coast and not over Hatteras. Don't know how this is verifying in real time though. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the forecast track of the low is up the coast and not over Hatteras. Don't know how this is verifying in real time though. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif So you mean further inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just in from GSP these are there final forecast totals for the storm: No way 85 in upstate sees anywhere near 4-6 and 6-8. Most have only had rain, some of us have glaze, and only very few have had actual accumulating snow. They must be counting on big time backend snow. I would cut that in thirds for areas closer 85, and that may be generous unless back end really performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So you mean further inland? Looks like they are saying it will track up the coast of SC/NC. Was hoping someone with more expertise could let us know if this is verifying in real time now or not. From what I have read on here near the coast means more WAA and NC's preferred track for more snow is a track near Hatteras. As usual it all depends on where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 looks like we will get a lot of back end snow, deformation zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The wedge is blasting in to Atlanta, gusting to 44 mph at KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Over 1,900 people without power in Gaston County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gusting to 21 mph here, with 9 mph sustained coming from the ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 just moving from 32 to 31 in the upstate. A huge slug of moisture incoming from GA. A very bad ZR situation setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can someone explain the implications of the gravity wave mentioned in the RAH discussion on precip rates? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Matthew East @eastwx 3m3 minutes ago Radar coverage is much more spotty than I envisioned at this point. Makes you wonder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone help me understand.. If the transfer to the coastal takes place as depicted by the Euro this would aid considerably in snowfall amounts correct? Obviously closer to the coast limits amounts east but southern development and a rapidly deepening low would bode well this evening/tomorrow correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No way 85 in upstate sees anywhere near 4-6 and 6-8. Most have only had rain, some of us have glaze, and only very few have had actual accumulating snow. They must be counting on big time backend snow. I would cut that in thirds for areas closer 85, and that may be generous unless back end really performs. I would not be so quick to say "take 1/3rd out" in certain areas of the forecast area around the I-85 Corridor. ESPECIALLY from WEST of I-85! I have 3" on the ground from overnight. I received this in literally 2.5 hrs. From receiving input from WxSouth, NWS and studying the Radar Loop(s), it seems that we are STILL in the GAME! This storm is LONG from over! While I have someone's attention, I am wondering about the effects of this storm UPSTREAM (the Mid ATL and Northeast?)?? Is everything still ON TRACK to HAMMER them? Or is this system pushing more EAST/Northeast? Just curious and thanks in advance for any guidance from here out! Best regards, Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That slug of moisture in Georgia is getting eroded as it makes its way toward the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the latest HRRR Brad P just tweeted out is beautiful and should calm some fears around here: https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CZU6jAjWcAAFkbF.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Matthew East @eastwx 3m3 minutes ago Radar coverage is much more spotty than I envisioned at this point. Makes you wonder... I'm blaming the Miller B. Never seems to work. Transfer still maybe good for the east when the storm blows up off the coast, but I think west NC is in for a huge bust. Hoping for the deformation band when the ULL goes by later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I would not be so quick to say "take 1/3rd out" in certain areas of the forecast area around the I-85 Corridor. ESPECIALLY from WEST of I-85! I have 3" on the ground from overnight. I received this in literally 2.5 hrs. From receiving input from WxSouth, NWS and studying the Radar Loop(s), it seems that we are STILL in the GAME! This storm is LONG from over! While I have someone's attention, I am wondering about the effects of this storm UPSTREAM (the Mid ATL and Northeast?)?? Is everything still ON TRACK to HAMMER them? Or is this system pushing more EAST/Northeast? Just curious and thanks in advance for any guidance from here out! Best regards, Jason They also said the changeover was taking longer than forecast, from rain to zr (GSP) and said freezing rain through midday. I'm sure they know that S of 85 , has had all rain, so to have a snow map with south of 85 in the 4-6" range, is bold, especially looking at the radar! That deform band better be amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Calm down everyone check out Brad P's new vlog: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1011440545595068 It explains the situation well. Plus look at the radar back in MS/AL/ WGA it is filling in nicely. Nobody should be thinking this is a bust yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the latest HRRR Brad P just tweeted out is beautiful and should calm some fears around here: https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CZU6jAjWcAAFkbF.mp4 Very consistent band off South Carolina just pumping snow into the NC high country on that last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I like the Look of the radar right now for NC/SC. I think it's a good thing that the initial line of precip has really died off over the last 6 hours. This will only help precip blossom around the upper low behind it. You can already see this happening south of atlanta. I think in 3 or 4 hours the radar will really be lit up over Georgia moving in SC and the NC folk will feel much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Calm down everyone check out Brad P's new vlog: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1011440545595068 It explains the situation well. Plus look at the radar back in MS/AL/ WGA it is filling in nicely. Nobody should be thinking this is a bust yet. And, this explains why he gets paid the big bucks to be a meteorologist, while the rest of us are modelologists. He did a great job explaining how the moisture will soon be blossoming over the western half of NC as the low transfers and wraps more moisture around from the cold high source to the north. The best is yet to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 awesome site showing surface winds in motion. Check it out for those interested http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-87.31,34.88,2048/loc=-85.103,33.336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For you guys downstream here is an update from west Georgia. The bands of rain are thin but when they come through it absolutely rips. Pouring rains. Don't worry yet guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ULL is underperforming right now....still hasn't closed off yet. Hoping it evolves as the SLP begins it's transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ULL is underperforming right now....still hasn't closed off yet. Hoping it evolves as the SLP begins it's transfer. I think that's what is happening, the transfer is causing a lull, should pick back up later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For the record, I wasn't saying the storm was a bust in my tweet quoted above. I was really just saying that we had 'wasted' part of the storm with spotty coverage. Yea, really no forcing at the moment. This is why the mountains have been getting clobbered and the Piedmont and foothills under performing thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 And, this explains why he gets paid the big bucks to be a meteorologist, while the rest of us are modelologists. He did a great job explaining how the moisture will soon be blossoming over the western half of NC as the low transfers and wraps more moisture around from the cold high source to the north. The best is yet to come... I feel like modelologists should understand this too but maybe people forgot that this was a hybrid Miller B/A and are treating it like a Miller A so they think it's busting? That's all I can think of. People forgot that during and shortly after the transfer is when we get the most moisture which should cause central NC to get 1) sleeted or 2) crippling ice storm, and after the transfer is when we should be concerned about a dry slot if one is to form. Most of the observing is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah this isn't a true dry slot. And these thin bands coming through knightdale pour sleet then we go to a steady freezing drizzle. The pressure falls off the sc coast are rapidly increasing and the low still isn't north E trembly far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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