burgertime Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Whaz up Burg? How are you doing man? Hope all is well "across the pond"? Looks like the dreaded WARM NOSE will WREAK HAVOC with the CLT area, IMHO! i dunno...this one is a HEAD SCRATCHER!! Anyways, I think we will see some decent sleet and some token BACKEND SNOW, but other than that...the RED TRIANGLE HOLDS SERVE for this area. Sheesh.Both the RAP and HRRR have us starting as sleet switching to snow then going back to sleet to ZR then back to snow. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sleet. I think there's going to be a lot of it. Its better than zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Johnson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All snow here just SE of Shelby. Had about an hour of sleet/rain before the change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Both the RAP and HRRR have us starting as sleet switching to snow then going back to sleet to ZR then back to snow. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Looking at the overall situation, CLT still stands to bank off of this? What is the link to the latest HRRR? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the overall situation, CLT still stands to bank off of this? What is the link to the latest HRRR? Thanks! I think CLT an Gastonia still do well. Also it looks like the change over from IP to snow is happening a little faster. We could get a good thump out of this from the onset and then get some on the backside. How much, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Johnson Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the overall situation, CLT still stands to bank off of this? What is the link to the latest HRRR? Thanks! The RAP and HRRR didn't show it supporting snow for my area for another 2-3 hours. Nothing but heavy snow since 3:00am. Might be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the overall situation, CLT still stands to bank off of this? What is the link to the latest HRRR? Thanks! I use SV. Here is the HRRR website http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation/ though it's a little tough to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latest hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 New RAP is great!! Inch per hour rates for the mountains for almost 12 hours straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest RGEM pushes WAA pretty far inland gets RDU to 37 before dropping them back to 30....get me almost to 50 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0043.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking good this morning folks. over 1." on the ground as i type. Went to bed at 39 and ip/rn. Woke up 4 hours later with a stiff NE wind and mod snow Foothills also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latest hrrr Wow well hours 13-15 pretty much gave it away. Moisture literally starts to tilt and hammer over the central and northern mountains of NC deep into southwest Virginia. That would smoke the mountain towns like Boone and West Jefferson. Probably foothills too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking good this morning folks. over 1." on the ground as i type. Went to bed at 39 and ip/rn. Woke up 4 hours later with a stiff NE wind and mod snow Good point. Any idea why areas that were in the low 30s to upper 20s aren't dropping as much in temperature when the precip started especially with DPs in the teens. I'm surprised to not see more areas in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, safe to say we'll reach 10" at the least in WNC. The question is how much more will deformation band boost it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, safe to say we'll reach 10" at the least in WNC. The question is how much more will deformation band boost it? The current radar fetch looks perfect as the bands are heading NNE out of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good point. Any idea why areas that were in the low 30s to upper 20s aren't dropping as much in temperature when the precip started especially with DPs in the teens. I'm surprised to not see more areas in the mid 20s. Rates maybe, its kinda hard to tell since the precip is just now getting into areas where the DP depression is bigger like that, here its 30 /19 and returns are maybe a half hr to a hr away at the most....I keep wanting to find a reason why its not going to end up 40 and rain here later today lol but in the end once that SLP pops its game over for a lot of eastern NC, until then though there does appear to be a pretty decent shot of moisture that could give us more snow here than we thought ( my official forecast is for .5" sleet and under a .10" of ZR.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You have a foot already of snow? 1." = one inch 1.' = one foot I almost thought it was a foot, too, and thought....what??? Temp dropped 4 degrees in past hour...from 30 to 26...and boy is this rain freezing up. D/P = 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You have a foot already of snow? Need some pictures Also guys how much longer is the snow going to last(how many hours with good rates) this afternoon on Friday or Tonight? Tom?(The longer the better but with good rates) Trying to figure out when we will get the the other 6-12 foretasted LOL. 1.00" My bad 1." = one inch 1.' = one foot I almost thought it was a foot, too, and thought....what??? Temp dropped 4 degrees in past hour...from 30 to 26...and boy is this rain freezing up. D/P = 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This will help http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm-discussion/?p=3905635 Its fine I was like damn that was fast does anyone here think we here in the foothills will get to a foot + or at least 8-12 inches today? I feel like the storm is going to end by afternoon and we end up with 4-6inches if we are lucky. Hope you guys see something I don't, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS Raleigh Forecast Discussion: Looks like Central NC will get dry sloted precipitation moving thru quicker and a Gravity Wave. They are cutting down accumulation amounts over most of the area. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY......WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THISMORNING......LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLIER CUT OFF TO SIGNIFICANTPRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AND WE HAVE DECREASEDSNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT......GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTING LOWERSNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WINTER STORM DEEPENING ACROSSALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSSTHE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE RAH CWA. LIGHTSNOW BEGAN AT 4AM IN GREENSBORO AND LEXINGTON AND LIGHTFREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AT ASHEBORO...ROCKINGHAM AND WADESBORO.RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOMEDOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMMAND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATIONLIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEADOF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE ASIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOWIN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFCPRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITHPRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLYLOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT ORAROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRRBRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUSTFORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Winds will pick up a bit for those in WNC/Foothills as we get closer to the center of the storm. Pressure gradient is tightening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the radar for charleston you can see the feed of moisture increasing off the Atlantic. Also the precip line up near Columbia is almost stationary as redevelopment continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Blacksburg not ruling out Blizzard Warning tonight for north and northeast zones...probably not widespread enough off the ridges in north-west NC to get one further south unless ground reports come in. I'm sure there will be some drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just in from GSP these are there final forecast totals for the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Notice a dry slot coming unless it fills in before it gets here. does anyone know who will benefit from the deformation zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just in from GSP these are there final forecast totals for the storm: have they backed off the totals, Buncombe was 12 to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest projections from NWS Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the radar it is filling in on both sides of where there was a Squall line. I don"t think the dry slot is going to be as bad or as long as predicted . Go look at national radar. Moisture is coming of the Gulf and the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0046.html You can see the ip/frz line on the CC feed http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GSP-N0C-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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