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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Whaz up Burg? How are you doing man? Hope all is well "across the pond"? Looks like the dreaded WARM NOSE will WREAK HAVOC with the CLT area, IMHO! i dunno...this one is a HEAD SCRATCHER!! Anyways, I think we will see some decent sleet and some token BACKEND SNOW, but other than that...the RED TRIANGLE HOLDS SERVE for this area. Sheesh.

Both the RAP and HRRR have us starting as sleet switching to snow then going back to sleet to ZR then back to snow.

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Looking at the overall situation, CLT still stands to bank off of this? What is the link to the latest HRRR? Thanks!

 

I think CLT an Gastonia still do well. Also it looks like the change over from IP to snow is happening a little faster. We could get a good thump out of this from the onset and then get some on the backside. How much, who knows? 

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Looking good this morning folks. over 1." on the ground as i type. Went to bed at 39 and ip/rn. Woke up 4 hours later with a stiff NE wind and mod snow

 

Good point. Any idea why areas that were in the low 30s to upper 20s aren't dropping as much in temperature when the precip started especially with DPs in the teens.  I'm surprised to not see more areas in the mid 20s.

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Good point. Any idea why areas that were in the low 30s to upper 20s aren't dropping as much in temperature when the precip started especially with DPs in the teens.  I'm surprised to not see more areas in the mid 20s.

 

Rates maybe, its kinda hard to tell since the precip is just now getting into areas where the DP depression is bigger like that, here its 30 /19 and returns are maybe a half hr to a hr away at the most....I keep wanting to find a reason why its not going to end up 40 and rain here later today lol but in the end once that SLP pops its game over for a lot of eastern NC, until then though there does appear to be a pretty decent shot of moisture that could give us more snow here than we thought ( my official forecast is for .5" sleet and under a .10" of ZR.)

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You have a foot already of snow? Need some pictures :)

Also guys how much longer is the snow going to last(how many hours with good rates) this afternoon on Friday or Tonight? Tom?(The longer the better but with good rates)

Trying to figure out when we will get the the other 6-12 foretasted :D

 

LOL. 1.00" 

My bad :)

1." = one inch

1.' = one foot

 

I almost thought it was a foot, too, and thought....what??? 

 

Temp dropped 4 degrees in past hour...from 30 to 26...and boy is this rain freezing up. D/P = 17

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This will help

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm-discussion/?p=3905635

Its fine I was like damn that was fast does anyone here think we here in the foothills will get to a foot + or at least 8-12 inches today?

I feel like the storm is going to end by afternoon and we end up with 4-6inches if we are lucky. Hope you guys see something I don't,

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NWS Raleigh Forecast Discussion:

 

Looks like Central NC will get dry sloted precipitation moving thru quicker and a Gravity Wave. They are cutting down accumulation amounts over most of the area.

 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...

...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLIER CUT OFF TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION RATES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AND WE HAVE DECREASED
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT
...

...GUIDANCE IS ALSO WARMER IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTING LOWER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WINTER STORM DEEPENING ACROSS
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE RAH CWA. LIGHT
SNOW BEGAN AT 4AM IN GREENSBORO AND LEXINGTON AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AT ASHEBORO...ROCKINGHAM AND WADESBORO.

RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM
AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD
OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC
PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY
LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR
BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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