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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Looking at the EURO clown on WB, it's a pretty big shift to the north with the snow totals. Cuts some of northern NCs totals in half. The whole orientation of the "stripe" of snow has turned from more W to E to SW to NE. If that makes sense...it's 2am...

Euro is all jacked up and missing frames. Its basically useless. Read some of the posts above. Guess we will never know if it would have nailed the storm on this last run.

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Looking at the EURO clown on WB, it's a pretty big shift to the north with the snow totals. Cuts some of northern NCs totals in half. The whole orientation of the "stripe" of snow has turned from more W to E to SW to NE. If that makes sense...it's 2am...

You could have brought better news at 2am Jonathan. Any thoughts on upper level temps from the king?

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​Quite a big shift north on the EURO clown on WB...

 

GSO goes from 14" to 11"

RAH goes from 8" to 6"

Spots in NE NC go from 22" to 6"...yikes lol

 

MTV stays at 19"

 

Still looks pretty good to me, as is.  I'll take it.  I see it up now.  I hope it's actually reliable and that the missing frames didn't affect anything.  Looks like QPF took a bit of a step down this run (closer to 1.5" for many areas now).

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Euro is all jacked up and missing frames. Its basically useless. Read some of the posts above. Guess we will never know if it would have nailed the storm on this last run.

 

Missing frames, yes. But it still ran...not sure if there's any real impact/issues from merely missing frames?

 

You could have brought better news at 2am Jonathan. Any thoughts on upper level temps from the king?

 

Sorry! Not sure how accurate it is with the weird problems, just reading the maps verbatim. There are a few frames missing from the clown map, but not too many. Haven't looked at anything but the clown map yet.

 

What about upstate area? Sorry for the IMBY

 

All the pink is gone from the upstate of SC now. The 11-12" that were there at 12z are now 5-6".

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Still looks pretty good to me, as is.  I'll take it.  I see it up now.  I hope it's actually reliable and that the missing frames didn't affect anything.  Looks like QPF took a bit of a step down this run (closer to 1.5" for many areas now).

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what sort of issue it had and if it will have any bearing on reliability...

 

DT will be happy. It buries RIC 20"+.

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Still looks pretty good to me, as is.  I'll take it.  I see it up now.  I hope it's actually reliable and that the missing frames didn't affect anything.  Looks like QPF took a bit of a step down this run (closer to 1.5" for many areas now).

Euro even know its missing frames still puts out 15 inches of snow in Morganton and 12 inches of snow in Hickory NC By The End Of Sunday/EVENT. So not bad at all looks good and about the same to be honest at least for the Foothills and Mountains.

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Very rich in moisture. We'll be talking about this one for years to come. Check out Jan 26th-28th there's a monster on the way if the models at this point are to be believed.

 

What models/monster are you speaking of on 26-28?  I don't see anything in the SE/MA?

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Wow is that really a tornado watch on that gulf convection?... guys.. there is a lot of precip involved here and  the line seems aligned just right to pump more out instead of cutting it off(at this point).  big chance at some major precip.. and that deformation band potential.. good stuff.

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The 0z GFS and UKMET are in hinting at something for the 26th to the 28th. It'll be news soon enough

 

I agree the hint is there for a phased deal.  JB was speaking of it earlier.  I think there is enough of a monster going on right now... I hope even we Southeast guys are saving pictures/loops.  While I see a lot of mixing possibly for areas... it's going to be historic from Central NC to the Mountains and of course, Northward.  just don't know what kind of historic we are talking down here yet... ice, snow, ip?  we are going to find out soon.   ;)

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Wow is that really a tornado watch on that gulf convection?... guys.. there is a lot of precip involved here and  the line seems aligned just right to pump more out instead of cutting it off(at this point).  big chance at some major precip.. and that deformation band potential.. good stuff.

 

Lamar MS had a tornado reports of 10-12 homes with moderate to major damage......need the SL and ULL to stay headed east for as long as possible.....

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Wow is that really a tornado watch on that gulf convection?... guys.. there is a lot of precip involved here and  the line seems aligned just right to pump more out instead of cutting it off(at this point).  big chance at some major precip.. and that deformation band potential.. good stuff.

I agree, if one is to read the radar as it currently is, it is definitely more in line with the Euro and looking even stronger than the Euro's prediction especially when it comes to QPF. I think this will be a record setter for many in NC. 

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That right there enhances the conveyer belt instead of robbing it. You guys are gonna get creamed with whatever ends up falling RAP has pretty much the entire area of over 1.5 QPF which is crazy in itself for a winter storm.

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

 

Deformation band is setting up quite nicely, too. WNC will see big totals from this one.

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That right there enhances the conveyer belt instead of robbing it. You guys are gonna get creamed with whatever ends up falling RAP has pretty much the entire area of over 1.5 QPF which is crazy in itself for a winter storm.

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

Whaz up Burg? How are you doing man? Hope all is well "across the pond"? Looks like the dreaded WARM NOSE will WREAK HAVOC with the CLT area, IMHO! i dunno...this one is a HEAD SCRATCHER!! Anyways, I think we will see some decent sleet and some token BACKEND SNOW, but other than that...the RED TRIANGLE HOLDS SERVE for this area. Sheesh.

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