BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago Missing file from ECMWF. Rejiggering and skipping ... it ain't coming 5 retweets4 likes Reply Retweet 5 Like 4 More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Surface temps look to go below freezing in most of NC and northern parts of SC in roughly 4-6 hours. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm in the upstate and I could easliy see that happen, I'm already at 35 and have had sleet. I think we get to 32 quicker than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks to me like the precip is way early. Returns are 1-2 hrs from rdu Also good pressure falls off extreme southern sc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Quite a big shift north on the EURO clown on WB... GSO goes from 14" to 11" RAH goes from 8" to 6" Spots in NE NC go from 22" to 6"...yikes lol MTV stays at 19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the EURO clown on WB, it's a pretty big shift to the north with the snow totals. Cuts some of northern NCs totals in half. The whole orientation of the "stripe" of snow has turned from more W to E to SW to NE. If that makes sense...it's 2am... Euro is all jacked up and missing frames. Its basically useless. Read some of the posts above. Guess we will never know if it would have nailed the storm on this last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the EURO clown on WB, it's a pretty big shift to the north with the snow totals. Cuts some of northern NCs totals in half. The whole orientation of the "stripe" of snow has turned from more W to E to SW to NE. If that makes sense...it's 2am... You could have brought better news at 2am Jonathan. Any thoughts on upper level temps from the king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Quite a big shift north on the EURO clown on WB... GSO goes from 14" to 11" RAH goes from 8" to 6" Spots in NE NC go from 22" to 6"...yikes lol MTV stays at 19" What about upstate area? Sorry for the IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro was missing I believe 12 hour of precip at 18 and 24 hours I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Quite a big shift north on the EURO clown on WB... GSO goes from 14" to 11" RAH goes from 8" to 6" Spots in NE NC go from 22" to 6"...yikes lol MTV stays at 19" Still looks pretty good to me, as is. I'll take it. I see it up now. I hope it's actually reliable and that the missing frames didn't affect anything. Looks like QPF took a bit of a step down this run (closer to 1.5" for many areas now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro is all jacked up and missing frames. Its basically useless. Read some of the posts above. Guess we will never know if it would have nailed the storm on this last run. Missing frames, yes. But it still ran...not sure if there's any real impact/issues from merely missing frames? You could have brought better news at 2am Jonathan. Any thoughts on upper level temps from the king? Sorry! Not sure how accurate it is with the weird problems, just reading the maps verbatim. There are a few frames missing from the clown map, but not too many. Haven't looked at anything but the clown map yet. What about upstate area? Sorry for the IMBY All the pink is gone from the upstate of SC now. The 11-12" that were there at 12z are now 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still looks pretty good to me, as is. I'll take it. I see it up now. I hope it's actually reliable and that the missing frames didn't affect anything. Looks like QPF took a bit of a step down this run (closer to 1.5" for many areas now). Yeah, I'm not sure what sort of issue it had and if it will have any bearing on reliability... DT will be happy. It buries RIC 20"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well. The gfs earlier still had RAH pretty covered anyway right? The mets around here have been so focused on the gfs anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You are missing 2 panels and that will skew the totals up for precip so don't use it as a final amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dang... THAT is an amazing picture. Rates tomorrow am across NC are going to be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still looks pretty good to me, as is. I'll take it. I see it up now. I hope it's actually reliable and that the missing frames didn't affect anything. Looks like QPF took a bit of a step down this run (closer to 1.5" for many areas now). Euro even know its missing frames still puts out 15 inches of snow in Morganton and 12 inches of snow in Hickory NC By The End Of Sunday/EVENT. So not bad at all looks good and about the same to be honest at least for the Foothills and Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Businessjan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Very rich in moisture. We'll be talking about this one for years to come. Check out Jan 26th-28th there's a monster on the way if the models at this point are to be believed. Dang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dang... THAT is an amazing picture. Rates tomorrow am across NC are going to be impressive. When you say a.m. about what time frame are you talking about I need to sleep but these models and this storm are keeping me awake don't know what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Very rich in moisture. We'll be talking about this one for years to come. Check out Jan 26th-28th there's a monster on the way if the models at this point are to be believed. What models/monster are you speaking of on 26-28? I don't see anything in the SE/MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow is that really a tornado watch on that gulf convection?... guys.. there is a lot of precip involved here and the line seems aligned just right to pump more out instead of cutting it off(at this point). big chance at some major precip.. and that deformation band potential.. good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There's a huge dry slot, but that will fill in to some degree when this reaches the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Businessjan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 0z GFS and UKMET are in hinting at something for the 26th to the 28th. It'll be news soon enough What models/monster are you speaking of on 26-28? I don't see anything in the SE/MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 0z GFS and UKMET are in hinting at something for the 26th to the 28th. It'll be news soon enough I agree the hint is there for a phased deal. JB was speaking of it earlier. I think there is enough of a monster going on right now... I hope even we Southeast guys are saving pictures/loops. While I see a lot of mixing possibly for areas... it's going to be historic from Central NC to the Mountains and of course, Northward. just don't know what kind of historic we are talking down here yet... ice, snow, ip? we are going to find out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow is that really a tornado watch on that gulf convection?... guys.. there is a lot of precip involved here and the line seems aligned just right to pump more out instead of cutting it off(at this point). big chance at some major precip.. and that deformation band potential.. good stuff. Lamar MS had a tornado reports of 10-12 homes with moderate to major damage......need the SL and ULL to stay headed east for as long as possible..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Businessjan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow is that really a tornado watch on that gulf convection?... guys.. there is a lot of precip involved here and the line seems aligned just right to pump more out instead of cutting it off(at this point). big chance at some major precip.. and that deformation band potential.. good stuff. I agree, if one is to read the radar as it currently is, it is definitely more in line with the Euro and looking even stronger than the Euro's prediction especially when it comes to QPF. I think this will be a record setter for many in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 IThat right there enhances the conveyer belt instead of robbing it. You guys are gonna get creamed with whatever ends up falling RAP has pretty much the entire area of over 1.5 QPF which is crazy in itself for a winter storm. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That right there enhances the conveyer belt instead of robbing it. You guys are gonna get creamed with whatever ends up falling RAP has pretty much the entire area of over 1.5 QPF which is crazy in itself for a winter storm. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Deformation band is setting up quite nicely, too. WNC will see big totals from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Are folks really relying on the Euro right now? Throw out everything and just look at real time using the HRRR and the RAP the GFS and EURO will be pointless this close to the storm. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That right there enhances the conveyer belt instead of robbing it. You guys are gonna get creamed with whatever ends up falling RAP has pretty much the entire area of over 1.5 QPF which is crazy in itself for a winter storm. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Whaz up Burg? How are you doing man? Hope all is well "across the pond"? Looks like the dreaded WARM NOSE will WREAK HAVOC with the CLT area, IMHO! i dunno...this one is a HEAD SCRATCHER!! Anyways, I think we will see some decent sleet and some token BACKEND SNOW, but other than that...the RED TRIANGLE HOLDS SERVE for this area. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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