chapelhill Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is what I was worried about for RDU cc: burger from their AFD at 1045 (sorry if it's already been discussed) IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THE RAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGEST SLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT...WITH THE LATTER LESSENING THE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS Blacksburg just emailed me (skywarn peeps) a few mins ago saying 4" rates are possible. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not sure of it's exact location, but wouldn't that mean it would have to do an immediate 90 degree turn almost? From watching enough TS landfall threads, the low starts turning toward the area of lowering pressure but it's like turning the Titanic. Slow and easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS Blacksburg just emailed me (skywarn peeps) a few mins ago saying 4" rates are possible. Sick. that could be white out ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS Blacksburg just emailed me (skywarn peeps) a few mins ago saying 4" rates are possible. Sick. Yeah, about an hour ago, I was under heavy rain bands that are delivering between .4 inches an hour. That was headed for the northeast. I'd imagine some of those bands can produce 3-4 inches of snow an hour....maybe even isolated 5 inches of snow an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Doesn't this indicate the SLP is about to make a turn? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Based on the text description under the map, I would think the pink at the Fl/Ga border would indicate movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sorry, first time posting on the phone. Operative words "may be". Sorta the same as "dry slot." 29 F right now here. Enjoy your wintery stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This rain here is certainly going to be awesome for someone upstream. It's tropical-like rain, very steady and on the heavier side. Yeah, about an hour ago, I was under heavy rain bands that are delivering between .4 inches an hour. That was headed for the northeast. I'd imagine some of those bands can produce 3-4 inches of snow an hour....maybe even isolated 5 inches of snow an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro must be coming in slow...not that it matters. #HRRR #RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Remeber the gfs and now euro will have all that dropszone data ingested. Nam didn't have it at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro must be coming in slow...not that it matters. #HRRR #RAP It's broken on EuroWX, SV, and WxBell right now. Stopped at 12 hours. 24 hour maps/low location all I have on tropical tidbits currently. Pops the low over to NE SC/Coast 24 hrs from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Doesn't this indicate the SLP is about to make a turn? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur If I interpret that map properly, its showing where the greatest pressure falls are, and I agree that the slp should move gererally in that direction, however keep in mind that the pressure is higher in that area, one of the reasons the drop in pressure has a greater change. The slp and the ull are still further south than generally modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As several have mentioned, the rain here north of ATL is steady and cold (around 40)... shifting to heavy at times... going to enjoy watching the other members of this board have a great couple of days... Also - school cancelled here tomorrow... imagine the same for all counties north of me (Cherokee). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If I interpret that map properly, its showing where the greatest pressure falls are, and I agree that the slp should move gererally in that direction, however keep in mind that the pressure is higher in that area, one of the reasons the drop in pressure has a greater change. The slp and the ull are still further south than generally modeled. Thanks and that makes sense. The ULL is important for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's broken on EuroWX, SV, and WxBell right now. Stopped at 12 hours. 24 hour maps/low location all I have on tropical tidbits currently. Pops the low over to NE SC/Coast 24 hrs from 00z. It's stronger with the coastal at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks and that makes sense. The ULL is important for our area. Yeah, you want it south of you, but not too far south, lol. Poor Greg knows that all too well T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ah, the Euro isn't working on any of the sites? I thought it was just my WB. Really annoying considering this is the most important run of the year... Well, at least the Euro was delivering a good pre-dawn thump here before the maps stopped working, haha. A bit earlier onset than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's stronger with the coastal at 24 hrs Kind of sucks. Midlo said 18 and 24 data were missing on the 00z Euro. So we are a bit in the dark on temps, precip amounts, etc. Sorry guys, no detailed Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Kind of sucks. Midlo said 18 and 24 data were missing on the 00z Euro. So we are a bit in the dark on temps, precip amounts, etc. Sorry guys, no detailed Euro tonight. We're not going to get anything at all? If so, I am pretty frustrated considering I pay $20/month almost exclusively for the Euro on WB (AmericanWx's model suite is my preferred model suite for almost everything else). So to not be able to see the Euro now would be unacceptable. EDIT: Not blaming WB, just saying that it is frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's stronger with the coastal at 24 hrs Can you tell the impact of this on the CAD areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, you want it south of you, but not too far south, lol. Poor Greg knows that all too well T You're killing me Tony! Missed you yesterday, bud. When I see sleet there is only one poster I think of...LOL! I am still liking where the ULL is sitting right now. Could still pick up some pretty good snow if it pans out just right. (2 or 3 in.). Next week has caught my attention. That would make you happy, I promise. Nice overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This system has an insane amount of moisture. There's still plenty of rain to go here in Atlanta and I can see heavier returns to the southwest. I can see why DC and Virginia can get over 30 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, looking at the free 24-hr panels, the Euro at hr 24 looks pretty similar to the hr 48 panel from last night's 00z Euro. Hard to say a whole lot more than that, though. Maybe a met can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pivotal Weather has EURO out to 96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So how can RAH make a proper assessment? Already considered the nam and y'all said it should have been tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You're killing me Tony! Missed you yesterday, bud. When I see sleet there is only one poster I think of...LOL! I am still liking where the ULL is sitting right now. Could still pick up some pretty good snow if it pans out just right. (2 or 3 in.). Next week has caught my attention. That would make you happy, I promise. Nice overrunning event. Yeah, I love this pattern where every few days there's another chance. Wed looks like it has sneaky ideas like this one does. Hope it picks it up again in Feb. As long as the ull goes by around La Grange I'm good from past experience, and this one is a good bit bigger so you won't get spring bit again if it does, lol. I really felt bad for you on that one I love that the cad has ampted up.... might get to see some pellets tomorrow late...hoping, lol. It makes for more interesting variables, as well as the lows moving further south over time. Fun storm! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Between 4z and 6z balloon launches at UNCA, we managed to go from +2 Celsius warm nose at 800-850 mb to below freezing. It is now snowing at moderate rate in AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, I love this pattern where every few days there's another chance. Wed looks like it has sneaky ideas like this one does. Hope it picks it up again in Feb. As long as the ull goes by around La Grange I'm good from past experience, and this one is a good bit bigger so you won't get spring bit again if it does, lol. I really felt bad for you on that one I love that the cad has ampted up.... might get to see some pellets tomorrow late...hoping, lol. It makes for more interesting variables, as well as the lows moving further south over time. Fun storm! T It's been fun to track with our neighbors to the N for sure after the December of pain. This was never our storm but it at least visited the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's been fun to track with our neighbors to the N for sure after the December of pain. This was never our storm but it at least visited the neighborhood. I'm still holding out for one to drop a foot or more on me, but any time something falls I'm glad to see it, including rain I've got to be over an inch now. I've been so rain wealthy since mid summer I feel like Scrooge McDuck I don't even pay attention if it ain't over an inch, lol. Probably be the same with the snow. I'd need two inches to be impressed But way more than that will fall to give me a dusting, so I'm taking that into account. Had a lot of rain that will take some work to adhere to. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Surface temps look to go below freezing in most of NC and northern parts of SC in roughly 4-6 hours. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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