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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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WPC is discarding the 00z NAM.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE

BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF

OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z

ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE

CONFIDENCE.

Baffles me as to why GSP would be using a model run that the WPC is disregarding. Your tax dollars at work people.

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When you guys talk about the HRRR moving south/east with the primary low, are you talking about the initialization frames or the forecast as a whole?  On my end, I am seeing it lift Northward still.

 

Reworded:  Do you mean the forecast of it moving North isn't verifying vs observations per each run of HRRR?

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Thing is at this point I would expect to see pretty substantial NE winds screaming down through the valley in VA but not seeing that.  Winds are pretty light in VA which means to me. To me that spells trouble with the CAD down here.  Staring at the OBS is not giving me a lot of comfort.

It will come don't worry temps will go down as moisture comes down and evaporates then cools the atmosphere and then game on. As far as the CAD setting up alot of people said it could be late tonight or Early Friday at some point no reason to panic. Brad P. just talked about this actually. He says forecast remains the same. :santa:

 

image.png

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When you guys talk about the HRRR moving south/east with the primary low, are you talking about the initialization frames or the forecast as a whole?  On my end, I am seeing it lift Northward still.

 

Reworded:  Do you mean the forecast of it moving North isn't verifying vs observations per each run of HRRR?

It's still moving NE, but not as much and with less of a northward component (albeit only a little).

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Baffles me as to why GSP would be using a model run that the WPC is disregarding. Your tax dollars at work people.

Dude, the meteorologists are people with training who are familiar with biases and trends and local climate. They may be wrong in the end, but they aren't stupid government bureaucrats who don't know their ass from a whole in the wall. It's not like private firms like AccuWeather are blowing the NWS out of the water on a regular basis. They suck just as much.

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Dude, the meteorologists are people with training who are familiar with biases and trends and local climate. They may be wrong in the end, but they aren't stupid government bureaucrats who don't know their ass from a whole in the wall. It's not like private firms like AccuWeather are blowing the NWS out of the water on a regular basis. They suck just as much.

 

I had said earlier that they are more experienced, have been doing it a long time in GSP.  They aren't just basing it off a run of the NAM, but at the time observations too.  This was well before the WPC threw out the 00z NAM being such an outlier.

 

GSP is a good office.  A Hell of a lot better than some other offices around the country (no offense to anybody!).  If they feel worried about a situation and even slightly reduce snow totals for some areas, they are more right than wrong most of the time.

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no big changes in the track. Colder i think though. someone with better resolution maps can correct or affirm that. 

 

vort_1000_short.gif

Just from memory that looks to me like the low doesn't go as far north into GA. Looks like it stays about 40 miles or so further South, but then transfers or even tracks further North on the coast to MYB. Such a track could help Western areas a little but hurt Eastern areas. 

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This is what I was worried about for RDU cc: burger

 

from their AFD at 1045 (sorry if it's already been discussed) 

 

IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THE
RAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGEST
SLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) AND
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT
...WITH THE LATTER LESSENING
THE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOO
DRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER.

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This is what I was worried about for RDU cc: burger

from their AFD at 1045 (sorry if it's already been discussed)

IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THE

RAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGEST

SLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON

FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) AND

FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT...WITH THE LATTER LESSENING

THE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKE

TO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOO

DRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER.

Weird they base that partially off the nam which WPC discounted.

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Its slow moving and hanging out way down south. Doesn't act like it wants to go north yet. I just checked the hemispheric water vapor time lapse and the the thing has consistently been moving southeast by east southeast. It looks like it wants to pop the coastal out right near the FLA/GA border.

 

That would be great but it has to move NE from there all the models want to tug it right up the coast, if it went 100 miles further off the NC coast you would get buried......

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I looked at both the 18z and 00z NAM to compare the current RAP (mesoanalysis page) low location.. and it's slower/South enough to cause changes I would think..  you guys might be onto something.  I know there were a couple ensemble members on the global models that wanted to keep it really far South on runs days ago.... everything has to be right at some point.

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lol. As would you!  :santa:

 

I'm just observing. I'm sure there will be plenty of waa, but maybe it will be further east. Where is the 0z euro? 

 

We'll have the 00z Euro results here in the next 15 minutes.  Will it remain rock solid or will it budge?  If it remains rock solid, it's going to be hard to argue against the Euro/GFS/GEFS/EPS consensus, IMO.

 

I'd say we need to watch the WAA precip overnight and into the morning.  We can overperform with that oftentimes.  The moisture fetch looks awesome right now.

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Weird they base that partially off the nam which WPC discounted.

Yeah, I mean it just makes overall sense regardless of what the 00z NAM says. It's either a crap ton of IP or ZR, we aren't staying snow for any decent length of period...so pick your poison.

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I looked at both the 18z and 00z NAM to compare the current RAP (mesoanalysis page) low location.. and it's slower/South enough to cause changes I would think..  you guys might be onto something.  I know there were a couple ensemble members on the global models that wanted to keep it really far South on runs days ago.... everything has to be right at some point.

It might let me in the game for some sleet :) Let that cad do it's work down here.  I've got east winds gusting to 16 and it really feels like something out there in a steady rain.  Don't want no heat engine coming up just under me.  Let it stay way south.  T

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