lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WPC is discarding the 00z NAM. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Baffles me as to why GSP would be using a model run that the WPC is disregarding. Your tax dollars at work people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 When you guys talk about the HRRR moving south/east with the primary low, are you talking about the initialization frames or the forecast as a whole? On my end, I am seeing it lift Northward still. Reworded: Do you mean the forecast of it moving North isn't verifying vs observations per each run of HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thing is at this point I would expect to see pretty substantial NE winds screaming down through the valley in VA but not seeing that. Winds are pretty light in VA which means to me. To me that spells trouble with the CAD down here. Staring at the OBS is not giving me a lot of comfort. It will come don't worry temps will go down as moisture comes down and evaporates then cools the atmosphere and then game on. As far as the CAD setting up alot of people said it could be late tonight or Early Friday at some point no reason to panic. Brad P. just talked about this actually. He says forecast remains the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 When you guys talk about the HRRR moving south/east with the primary low, are you talking about the initialization frames or the forecast as a whole? On my end, I am seeing it lift Northward still. Reworded: Do you mean the forecast of it moving North isn't verifying vs observations per each run of HRRR? It's still moving NE, but not as much and with less of a northward component (albeit only a little). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If sfc plots are really gonna tell the tale, then the next 3 to 4 hours are going to speak volumes to alot of us looking for the last little nudge like the euro has been showing that keeps us primary snow with very minimal mixing issues. Rooting for this thing to stay on east heading and not jump to TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mid Atlantic folks are discussing para GFS and UKIE. Anyone doing a PBP for us here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Baffles me as to why GSP would be using a model run that the WPC is disregarding. Your tax dollars at work people. Dude, the meteorologists are people with training who are familiar with biases and trends and local climate. They may be wrong in the end, but they aren't stupid government bureaucrats who don't know their ass from a whole in the wall. It's not like private firms like AccuWeather are blowing the NWS out of the water on a regular basis. They suck just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Grit thanks for that link. It's not real time is it? Figure it updates what top of every hour? Sure...there is a map out now for 0445 so it looks like it's updating every 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dude, the meteorologists are people with training who are familiar with biases and trends and local climate. They may be wrong in the end, but they aren't stupid government bureaucrats who don't know their ass from a whole in the wall. It's not like private firms like AccuWeather are blowing the NWS out of the water on a regular basis. They suck just as much. I had said earlier that they are more experienced, have been doing it a long time in GSP. They aren't just basing it off a run of the NAM, but at the time observations too. This was well before the WPC threw out the 00z NAM being such an outlier. GSP is a good office. A Hell of a lot better than some other offices around the country (no offense to anybody!). If they feel worried about a situation and even slightly reduce snow totals for some areas, they are more right than wrong most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mid Atlantic folks are discussing para GFS and UKIE. Anyone doing a PBP for us here? no big changes in the track. Colder i think though. someone with better resolution maps can correct or affirm that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sure...there is a map out now for 0445 so it looks like it's updating every 30 minutes. Good deal. I'll be using it more than radar tommorow afternoon if/when the pingers roll in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Surface wet bulbs still hanging on right at the NC/SC border for Mecklenburg county as precip approaches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Final Word From Brad Panovich. (Including Hand Drawn Forecast Maps And A Video Blog Before The Storm Starts): Video: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1011300495609073 Maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 20˚ at the NC/VA line north of GSO at MTV we dropped 18 degrees in five hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 no big changes in the track. Colder i think though. someone with better resolution maps can correct or affirm that. Just from memory that looks to me like the low doesn't go as far north into GA. Looks like it stays about 40 miles or so further South, but then transfers or even tracks further North on the coast to MYB. Such a track could help Western areas a little but hurt Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The LP is close to Southwest Alabama at the moment. It's pretty far south in all honestly... EDIT: Okay, the map updated...seems the LP center is in south central MS. **Time-sensitive** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Its slow moving and hanging out way down south. Doesn't act like it wants to go north yet. I just checked the hemispheric water vapor time lapse and the the thing has consistently been moving southeast by east southeast. It looks like it wants to pop the coastal out right near the FLA/GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is what I was worried about for RDU cc: burger from their AFD at 1045 (sorry if it's already been discussed) IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THERAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGESTSLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONFRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) ANDFREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT...WITH THE LATTER LESSENINGTHE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKETO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOODRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1006 low just west of Hattiesburg,MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is what I was worried about for RDU cc: burger from their AFD at 1045 (sorry if it's already been discussed) IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THE RAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGEST SLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT...WITH THE LATTER LESSENING THE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER. Weird they base that partially off the nam which WPC discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Its slow moving and hanging out way down south. Doesn't act like it wants to go north yet. I just checked the hemispheric water vapor time lapse and the the thing has consistently been moving southeast by east southeast. It looks like it wants to pop the coastal out right near the FLA/GA border. That would be great but it has to move NE from there all the models want to tug it right up the coast, if it went 100 miles further off the NC coast you would get buried...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I looked at both the 18z and 00z NAM to compare the current RAP (mesoanalysis page) low location.. and it's slower/South enough to cause changes I would think.. you guys might be onto something. I know there were a couple ensemble members on the global models that wanted to keep it really far South on runs days ago.... everything has to be right at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good deal. I'll be using it more than radar tommorow afternoon if/when the pingers roll in Actually, I think the max wet bulb temps are only updating once an hour...the radar timestamp was what I saw update (every 15 min) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lol. As would you! I'm just observing. I'm sure there will be plenty of waa, but maybe most of it will be further east. Where is the 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lol. As would you! I'm just observing. I'm sure there will be plenty of waa, but maybe it will be further east. Where is the 0z euro? We'll have the 00z Euro results here in the next 15 minutes. Will it remain rock solid or will it budge? If it remains rock solid, it's going to be hard to argue against the Euro/GFS/GEFS/EPS consensus, IMO. I'd say we need to watch the WAA precip overnight and into the morning. We can overperform with that oftentimes. The moisture fetch looks awesome right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Weird they base that partially off the nam which WPC discounted. Yeah, I mean it just makes overall sense regardless of what the 00z NAM says. It's either a crap ton of IP or ZR, we aren't staying snow for any decent length of period...so pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lol. As would you! I'm just observing. I'm sure there will be plenty of waa, but maybe most of it will be further east. Where is the 0z euro? Starts in 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I looked at both the 18z and 00z NAM to compare the current RAP (mesoanalysis page) low location.. and it's slower/South enough to cause changes I would think.. you guys might be onto something. I know there were a couple ensemble members on the global models that wanted to keep it really far South on runs days ago.... everything has to be right at some point. It might let me in the game for some sleet Let that cad do it's work down here. I've got east winds gusting to 16 and it really feels like something out there in a steady rain. Don't want no heat engine coming up just under me. Let it stay way south. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Doesn't this indicate the SLP is about to make a turn? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Doesn't this indicate the SLP is about to make a turn? http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur I'm not sure of it's exact location, but wouldn't that mean it would have to do an immediate 90 degree turn almost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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