nchighcountrywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 850s not yet impressive and is noted in the GSP AFD update GSP seems to be back peddling for all except NW of Hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's a pretty insane gradient along I-64 from basically just northwest of Williamsburg to Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latest rap improved for rdu, heavy snow at 10am. sleet/frz rain south. turns to all sleet after 12 or so though for majority of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I could see where some really big bust a coming somewhere, But where is the million dollar question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 just saw that, don't know if it's believable. If it's correct I'll be headed up there. I have noticed the models trending towards higlands, cashiers, toxaway as the area to be. Yeah its probably a little overdone but quite amazing..especially after that gsp afd Damn. My gps just gives directions. Lookout....after you're done laughing, you can delete this. Lol..gps, gsp, gfs...f***..lol.typing on the phone sucks...but nah have to live with ones mistakes...besides not the first time and won't be the last mistake on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Brad P. Just made his last call map If someone could link it. Can't do it on my phone. Not much difference. Upped totals through the nc mtns. *Edit* worst of the ice shifted around 20 miles south I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Brad P. Just made his last call map If someone could link it. Can't do it on my phone. Not much difference. Upped totals through the nc mtns. *Edit* worst of the ice shifted around 20 miles south I believe. Man, he's thinking different than GSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Brad P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latest rap improved for rdu, heavy snow at 10am. sleet/frz rain south. turns to all sleet after 12 or so though for majority of the state. Verbatim a lot of ice from GSP to AVL to CLT to RDU - that would be ugly. Amazing the differences in some of the models right now. Don't we normally drop the GFS and Euro at this range and focus on the short range models more? Seems the GFS and Euro are still touting the better scenarios while the short range NAM, RAP, etc are cooking some disappointment stew for many. I don't think we should be so quick to discount the NAM just because it looks terrible. I think it nailed the 2 big storms over the past two years from this range, and as I recall, it brought in huge WAA in both of those and disappointed a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 00z GGEM looks good for N/W NC (I-85 corridor, etc.). The NAVGEM looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I guess we have our gulf low now. question is where does it go? Q-G theory says NE, but we will see. Maybe it can pull a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I guess we have our gulf low now. question is where does it go? Q-G theory says NE, but we will see. Maybe it can pull a miracle. what would be the 'miracle'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Nam hasn't been the Nam over the past 24 hours. Not sure how to describe it other than to look at how long the GFS wanted to pull the Low through Tennessee for the longest time despite every other models showing. Granted at this point it's more of a wait and see thing now. I think a lot of people are overreacting to the Nam, and the way the GFS was so much different proves that even though we are at the rivers edge on this thing getting going, there's still a lot at play to make or break someones hopes. I think the best way to approach our current predicament is to not go with the NAM. Time will tell, but it is pretty much an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Closed contour 1007 just north of Mobile. There are some pressure falls north into TN, but likewise east into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 FWIW, the HRRR has been trending S and E with the primary for the past 4-5 runs. Again, it's the HRRR and I have no idea if it's worth more than the bytes of data sent over the internet to my computer to view it. HRRR also keeps RDU all snow through at least 18z tomorrow, with 3-5" of accumulation for the Triangle. Doesn't look like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Nam hasn't been the Nam over the past 24 hours. Not sure how to describe it other than to look at how long the GFS wanted to pull the Low through Tennessee for the longest time despite every other models showing. Granted at this point it's more of a wait and see thing now. I think a lot of people are overreacting to the Nam, and the way the GFS was so much different proves that even though we are at the rivers edge on this thing getting going, there's still a lot at play to make or break someones hopes. I think the best way to approach our current predicament is to not go with the NAM. Time will tell, but it is pretty much an outlier at this point. Just so im clear to how it works on here....we all like the Euro from 72-24 hours out from event but the NAM as the event time nears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's interesting. I don't know if it will make much difference as far as sensible weather, but that is shaping up to be a straight up Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This shows the max wet bulb temperature through the atmosphere...nice new map on the SPC page under Winter Weather http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thing is at this point I would expect to see pretty substantial NE winds screaming down through the valley in VA but not seeing that. Winds are pretty light in VA which means to me. To me that spells trouble with the CAD down here. Staring at the OBS is not giving me a lot of comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On BUFKIT: even the warm-o NAM keeps RDU sleet through 3 PM, with liquid equivalent total of 0.7", which, if all sleet, translates to about 2" of sleet. Given that there will probably be more snow than the NAM is showing, it's not at all unreasonable for RDU and the NW parts of the Triangle to see 3-5" of snow and sleet by early tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, it shows another 0.7" of ZR through 8 PM. It never brings RDU above freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 FWIW, the HRRR has been trending S and E with the primary for the past 4-5 runs. Again, it's the HRRR and I have no idea if it's worth more than the bytes of data sent over the internet to my computer to view it. HRRR also keeps RDU all snow through at least 18z tomorrow, with 3-5" of accumulation for the Triangle. Doesn't look like sleet. Noticing this as well... something to watch. Wouldn't that be a neat trick. BTW, the sfc low is just north of Mobile. Was never forecast to be this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Interesting they were just saying on the MA board that the 0Z GFS run had the Hurricane hunter dropsondes info incorporated into it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Interesting they were just saying on the MA board that the 0Z GFS run incorporated the Hurricane hunter dropsondes info incorporated into it as well. I knew they were running those. Did the NAM not have that data ingested? That is really cool, by the way, Grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This shows the max wet bulb temperature through the atmosphere...nice new map on the SPC page under Winter Weather http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Well there you go. I've always wondered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Closed contour 1007 just north of Mobile. There are some pressure falls north into TN, but likewise east into GA. That is good news. Now the low will be forced east or it takes a 80 degree turn to TN like the models have projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From Wright Weather: HRRR has the midday temperature in #Charlotte at 26 degrees /w freezing rain/sleet. Roads will be #icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I knew they were running those. Did the NAM not have that data ingested? That is really cool, by the way, Grit. From what they were saying the NAM had very few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Differences between 0z GFS and NAM for Charlotte. Crazy the differences only a few hours at most from precip starting. GFS NAM Edit - Just noticed the GFS has rain and snow on the 28th on this. So take all the rain out and some snow. Total precip then would be about the same as the NAM but types very different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WPC is discarding the 00z NAM. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Grit thanks for that link. It's not real time is it? Figure it updates what top of every hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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