Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion

[SN_Lover]

CLIPS has me worried about ice more than snow 

 

[Cold Rain]

LP moving through the Pamlico sound is generally not a good track.

[packfan98]

Very tight cluster of LPs amongst the members near Myrtle Beach at hr 108.  Then over the Pamlico Sound at hr 114.

 

The HP is in better position, as well.

That's a slam dunk track for the mountains and foothills and probably to the NW corner of the Triad like King, NC.  I would imagine that south and east of there would have some mixing.  Hopefully everyone can avoid a major ice storm and stick to snow and sleet.  The bar graphs will be interesting!

[rduwx]

LP moving through the Pamlico sound is generally not a good track.

 

I agree...For our area it might be a little too far west.  We'll see if this continues to be the case in further runs.

[downeastnc]

LP moving through the Pamlico sound is generally not a good track.

 

Yeah unless you live the VA mts or West Virginia.....even DC doesnt want to see that......

[superjames1992]

That's a slam dunk track for the mountains and foothills and probably to the NW corner of the Triad like King, NC.  I would imagine that south and east of there would have some mixing.  Hopefully everyone can avoid a major ice storm and stick to snow and sleet.  The bar graphs will be interesting!

 

Yeah, I am sure we mix with that track, but that's fine.  I'm pretty sure we're going to mix, no matter what.  Looks like the mean should come out to 6-9" in our area, though we'll see when the bar graphs come out in an hour.  There is a sharp cutoff S/E of RDU and CLT (<2").

[Disc]

Excellent glad to here!

 

EPS snowfall mean for our area is in the 14" - 16" range. All 51 individual members have at least a moderate snow event -- Some have absolutely stupid amounts.

[SN_Lover]

EPS snowfall mean for our area is in the 14" - 16" range. All 51 individual members have at least a moderate snow event -- Some have absolutely stupid amounts.

how much for Charlotte?

[MillerA]

Gsp disco

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

at 230 PM Monday...on Friday and upper trough will be over the MS

River Valley...while an upper ridge will be over The Rockies...and

another weaker ridge will be over the eastern Seaboard. The upper

pattern progresses such that by Saturday a large upper low closes

off over Virginia and NC...another ridge upstream reaches the plains. By

Sunday the upper low moves off Cape Cod...and the upper ridge

reaches the Great Lakes and Gulf states. On Monday the eastern ridge

deamplifies...while a trough amplifies over The Rockies and

northern mx.

At the surface...moist isentropic upglide over a Gulf front Thursday

night will produce robust precipitation over the western Carolinas

and NE Georgia. Thickness values...surface temperatures...and vertical

profiles will be marginally suitable for snow or freezing

rain...mainly north of Interstate 40. A pair of cold fronts are

expected ot sweep east of the area on Friday. The models show

substantial moisture surviving the trip over the mountains in the

wake of the fronts...an with colder air moving in...snow may spread

east of the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont Friday night. Snow is

expected to retreat back to the mountains on Saturday as a surface

low and associated moisture move up the East Coast...while northwest flow

snow persists along the Tennessee border. The northwest flow snow is expected to

end along the Tennessee border Saturday evening. Sunday features dry high

pressure. Another front approaches the area from the west on

Monday...with moisture spreading north from the Gulf to the southern

Appalachians. Surface temperatures may be cold enough to support

freezing rain or snow in the Georgia and Carolina Mountains early

Monday...depending on vertical thermal profiles. Temperatures will

exhibit a reduced diurnal range on Friday and Saturday...returning

to near normal values on Sunday and Monday.

[Disc]

how much for Charlotte?

 

Looks like 2" - 4" with a sharp gradient right over you guys. SE side with much less, NW side a lot more. 6" line runs right around Hickory.

[superjames1992]

DT posted the EPS mean snowfall map over in the Mid-Atlantic forums, for you guys asking about it:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47658-january-22-23-mid-atlantic-storm-thread-1-no-banter/page-22#entry3873585

[WxKnurd]

I feel like that's a DGEX map and should be in banter. If only...

[Tacoma]

Yeah unless you live the VA mts or West Virginia.....even DC doesnt want to see that......

and NC Mtns.

[snowbird1230]

GSP doesn't seem impressed at all with counties in their area..Even for the Northern high mountain counties,they seemed to mention the dreaded word "Rain"

more than snow.

[DaculaWeather]

All models at hour 96.

 

JMA for the win.

[wxduncan]

From WxSouth

 

The trends aren't good. All models are rock steady on the powerful storm that is forecast to develop in the MidSouth late Thursday, and then interact with plenty of cold air in place. The European model continues to get slightly colder each run for areas of VA, NC , SC at the surface. The overall themes of the computer modeling is in amazing agreement on this major storm's evolution but have only slight variances in the track. The details at the surface are not carved in stone yet, but this has a look of some of the Bigger Winter storms, for the areas affected.

Some of the numbers of snow totals are incredible off the models, many showing a widespread 2 foot snowstorm in a large chunk of Virginia, West Virginia,and common Foot amounts in part of North Carolina, Kentucky, and into the Northeast....snow, to ice to snow for southern VA, piedmont of NC, and a vicious IceStorm setup in some areas of overlapping regions of particularly NC, VA where snow isn't dominant. All models peg Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland as Ground Zero thanks to the slow moving storm crawling up the Coast by Saturday. What a mess. Its too early to know exact snow and ice amounts just yet. And it's possible this storm doesn't come together as forecast, but there's no denying the last few days of the trends on this one. We'll follow it through the week. For now, keep this info in your mind, and if plans are needed later on maybe think about your usual Winter Storm preparations.

I cover this major event, as well as the Wednesday minor event in the Tennessee Valley at my site in detail.

 

 

 

 

Link to WxSouths Post:

https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/1205580799471973/?type=3&theater

[PackGrad05]

It always takes a long time for RAH to get out their AFD

[Tacoma]

GSP doesn't seem impressed at all with counties in their area..Even for the Northern high mountain counties,they seemed to mention the dreaded word "Rain"

more than snow.

from what I read this morning in the HWO GSP was up on a possible heavy snow event for wnc.

[wxduncan]

[Tacoma]

..FRIDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN NORTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THEWAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...COLDTEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATEDROADS AND BRIDGES.  

This is updated From GSP at 3:33 this afternoon.  Sounds good to me.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

from what I read this morning in the HWO GSP was up on a possible heavy snow event for wnc.

 

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but I don't see anyway this delivers winter weather to the upstate or NEGA. Most guidance shows low tracking to our north or right over us, that is nothing but cold rain. As others have said, we would need the low down around Sav or Jacksonville. Plus the high looks too weak to me to get the wedge down this far. Whole system would have to track about 300 miles further South and I don't see a mechanism to get it there. Mtns above 3k or North of I-40 and I would be paying attention though. And anyway I'll pass on a major ice storm. Minor one is ok but major is no fun with a big mess. Give me snow or give me rain. (Naturally it'll be rain) Come on Fab Feb!

[Bsudweather]

GSP doesn't seem impressed at all with counties in their area..Even for the Northern high mountain counties,they seemed to mention the dreaded word "Rain"

more than snow.

They are as conservative as anyone. You would think they would atleast mention the possibility of an Ice Storm across the upstate, since there's a good possibility that's what we see here.

[UNCCmetgrad]

The southern piedmont of NC has been long overdue for a major ice storm. As currently modeled by the EURO this storm would deliver one to that area as well as the northern Upstate.

From EUROWx.com

Gastonia; 1.13 qpf frz rain

Greer: 0.72 qpf frz rain

Shelby: 0.32qpf frzrain with more in the way of sleet

Lincolnton: 0.86 qpf frz rain

Charlotte: 0.33 qpf frz rain at the Airport but there is a really sharp cutoff here.

 

Of coarse these number will change over and over again but I think this is out best shot at sig ice around the CLT area in several years.

[superjames1992]

The 12z Parallel GFS has come in south versus its prior runs.  It is a bit colder, though not as cold as the other modeling yet.

 

The Parallel GFS did consistently overamp the past system for run after run in the mid-range, so I wonder if that is a bias it has?  I really do not know much about it.

[SN_Lover]

NAM didn't dig as much. 

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for posting these numbers. Ice of that amount would be bad for the local area. Does the FRZ rain QPF lessen as you head west on 74 out of Cleveland and into the southern mountains/foothill area? Based on others thoughts I assume this is the case. Just wondering if you had some other numbers. 

Thanks

The southern piedmont of NC has been long overdue for a major ice storm. As currently modeled by the EURO this storm would deliver one to that area as well as the northern Upstate.

From EUROWx.com

Gastonia; 1.13 qpf frz rain

Greer: 0.72 qpf frz rain

Shelby: 0.32qpf frzrain with more in the way of sleet

Lincolnton: 0.86 qpf frz rain

Charlotte: 0.33 qpf frz rain at the Airport but there is a really sharp cutoff here.

 

Of coarse these number will change over and over again but I think this is out best shot at sig ice around the CLT area in several years.

[snowbird1230]

..FRIDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY.
..SATURDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND BRIDGES.

This is updated From GSP at 3:33 this afternoon. Sounds good to me.

Yea the HWO sounds much better than the point and click forecast

[superjames1992]

Anyways, the 12z EPS bar graphs are out and up across the board, for those interested:

 

CHO: 20.0"

IAD: 17.5"

RNK: 16.5"

DCA: 16.0"

MWK: 12.25"

AVL: 11.5"

HKY: 10.0"

GSO: 7.25"

TYS: 4.5"

BNA: 3.75"

GSP: 3.25"

CLT: 2.9"

RDU: 2.7"

PGV: 1.1"

HSV: 0.7"

ATL 0.2"

BHM: 0.2"

CAE: 0.15"

 

My understanding is that these show strictly snow now, and do not show ZR/IP like they used to, though I might be wrong.

 

EDIT: Some of those totals for TN are inflated because of the mid-week system. I could correct for that, but I am too lazy right now.

[PackGrad05]

Sweet!  RDU gets 2.7 inches. That's a good snow.  I'd take it.  

 

I think the south trend will continue but then head more NW by Friday/Saturday.  I think the energy ends up transferring and setting up a little off the coast giving VA and WV a really good one.  

 

One thing I'm interested in seeing is the cold air supply at the surface.  I'm worried about an icing here in RDU more than snow..  Or snow with a glaze of ice on top just like last year..

[UNCCmetgrad]

Thanks for posting these numbers. Ice of that amount would be bad for the local area. Does the FRZ rain QPF lessen as you head west on 74 out of Cleveland and into the southern mountains/foothill area? Based on others thoughts I assume this is the case. Just wondering if you had some other numbers. 

Thanks

No Problem. Yes it does lessen and in fact it shows very little in the way of freezing rain by the time you get to Rutherfordton where you start getting sleet and even some snow as the predominate precipitation type.