lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:04 PM, UpStateCAD said: crushes the upstate. Almost 1.8 inches of liquid equivalent falls into mid to upper 20's surface temps. The NAM sends us over a cliff while the RGEM provides a parachute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lookout, if available, please give your assessment/thoughts for East Central GA, NE GA, and Northwest SC - this area seems to be the most difficult to forecast at this time - also, there seems to be some disagreement between GSP and CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:07 PM, aturner79 said: Thats the 6z RGEM isnt it? Make sure you pull down to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:07 PM, Cheeznado said: The below in Pivotal's map using Kuchera- how do you arrive at 5"? Screen Shot 2016-01-21 at 10.04.45 AM.png You are correct, I used the old equation from 2006. That has the updated 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:08 PM, Cheeznado said: It is the 06Z Click on the time stamp and pull down to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aturner79 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:08 PM, Queencitywx said: Make sure you pull down to 12z Gotcha!! Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:07 PM, Cheeznado said: The below in Pivotal's map using Kuchera- how do you arrive at 5"? Screen Shot 2016-01-21 at 10.04.45 AM.png By that look the spine of the apps gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:01 PM, SN_Lover said: Using the Kuchera equation, Ashdeville will get 5" ± 1". Im thinking you might have looked at something wrong..Im seeing close to a foot in Asheville using Kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:03 PM, Queencitywx said: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Love how it pivots some the heaviest returns right over the CLT area at the end of the storm with the wrap around stuff. Would see some nice snow accums with that on top of whatever we get tomorrow and tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:13 PM, Amos83 said: Love how it pivots some the heaviest returns right over the CLT area at the end of the storm with the wrap around stuff. Would see some nice snow accums with that on top of whatever we get tomorrow and tomorrow night For my side of the county: Quick thump of snow, heavy sleet, thump of snow to end. Initial snow/sleet looks to run right along 49 cutting Mecklenburg in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes it's the 12z if you follow the instructions and it pounds the north half or so of SC with lots of ice, sleet, and some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:15 PM, WxKnurd said: For my side of the county: Quick thump of snow, heavy sleet, thump of snow to end. Initial snow/sleet looks to run right along 49 cutting Mecklenburg in half Pretty much, yeah. Typical line. You should do well up there. I was surprised you didn't see more yesterday, I hit a heavy snow shower on freedom drive out by 485 around 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:15 PM, snowbird1230 said: How accurate is the Kuchera Met? Honestly, I'd go with Skew-Ts, soundings, etc. over the Kuchera method. It seems a little low to me sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can't view the CMC site for some reason. Is the primary south of the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:17 PM, Queencitywx said: Pretty much, yeah. Typical line. You should do well up there. I was surprised you didn't see more yesterday, I hit a heavy snow shower on freedom drive out by 485 around 5. Was having to rely on reports from my wife, who didn't notice that we actually did have some sticksge yesterday. I think she just wasn't paying attention, because it was obvious there was light dusting of sleet and snow on the mulch areas when I took the dog out this morning. You and Calc are sitting pretty up there, especially with Brandon bringing the mojo "home" with uim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:53 PM, snowbird1230 said: Looks like from Asheville west it could be. Agreed. NAM puts out too much sleet for Asheville. Thermal profiles and precipitation rates support a prolonged heavy snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:09 PM, SN_Lover said: You are correct, I used the old equation from 2006. That has the updated 2013. I just examined the NAM more closely- the soundings indicate a lot of the precip during the day Friday would be sleet with a warm nose at 800mb, but the algorithm has that as snow- I wonder if sleet is lumped in with snow with this equation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:26 PM, Poimen said: 995 low makes landfall near Morehead City around h42. Ouch. Thats way too far west. You and I Poimen are close and represent the eastern NC folks. Looks like we could go over to all rain for a while if that low doesn't go further east. The errosion of the CAD is worse the further east you are as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6+ inches of concrete for Raleigh: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RAP has the event beginning around 8z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:27 PM, Cheeznado said: Screen Shot 2016-01-21 at 10.26.13 AM.png This is valid 21Z Friday. At that point, the warm conveyor belt of precip should be over and there should be a good lull in the precipitation until the deform band comes back through overnight into Saturday morning. That is to say, 21Z sounding supports sleet but it should not be precipitating at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:29 PM, Queencitywx said: RAP has the event beginning around 8z yea brings the bulk of the precip into nc around 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM for RDU is insane -- 3" of snow, 0.9" of sleet, and 0.7" of glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS looks really juicy early!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rain to wash away all the salt and brine, then snow to cool the road off, then ice ontop of the road. DOT might have to use ice picks at the road LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:26 PM, NCSNOW said: 6+ inches of concrete for Raleigh: Looks good. I would not be surprised if I see a little more snow up here. Between 6 and 8 inches of snow, some sleet, and a little freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:32 PM, SN_Lover said: Rain to wash away all the salt and brine, then snow to cool the road off, then ice on top of the road. DOT might have to use ice picks at the road LOL Yeah, putting down the brine for this is going to be a waste of time and money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:31 PM, Supercane said: NAM for RDU is insane -- 3" of snow, 0.9" of sleet, and 0.7" of glaze. Sleet has a 3:1 ratio, so that'd actually be almost 3" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 3:32 PM, SN_Lover said: Rain to wash away all the salt and brine, then snow to cool the road off, then ice ontop of the road. DOT might have to use ice picks at the road LOL Wow, that stinks. From the play by play of the run it seemed like more snow/sleet fro CLT on the 12Z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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