Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Big ice storm for most after the snow, including RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:16 PM, Wow said: That's what we want to see. That takes out the surge of midlevel warming. 850's really crash at hr 36 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks mostly snow to a little sleet here in Southside VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 By 36hrs the warm nose is quickly eroding and changing back over to snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:15 PM, franklin NCwx said: even turns the mtns over to freezing rain. Is it just me or is this more of a miller a this run with the low getting shunted south and east instead of transferring? Upper level and low looks great. Sfc p-type see the warm layer very well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:18 PM, Wow said: By 36hrs the warm nose is quickly eroding and changing back over to snow again. Just like 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:18 PM, Wow said: By 36hrs the warm nose is quickly eroding and changing back over to snow again.That 27-36 is going to be the trick. Send that L further SE and as you have stated should shown better returns. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:17 PM, packfan98 said: 850's really crash at hr 36 for you. Yeah it's quicker getting the midlevel warmth out as the primary is south and the secondary ramps up. A solid trend to the euro and gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:12 PM, lilj4425 said: Oh, well that's a bummer. Seems like a lot would have to happen for this area to be snow instead of IP and ZR. Close to plain -RN according to PW maps @24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:12 PM, lilj4425 said: Oh, well that's a bummer. Seems like a lot would have to happen for this area to be snow instead of IP and ZR.Face it, it's not going to happen here or there. Icy mess for the upstate at best or wrose dending on how your look at it. Some will get a nice back side snow after the mess. Some will get the lee side screw! Most likely nw gville and Spartanburg, Cherokee and Union get the transfer snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looking at a crappy map, but the surface looks colder. RDU looks to stay at or below freezing at least to hour 36. At that point nearly 1.50 qpf has fallen as something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dumping snow here and northern piedmont at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:19 PM, Queencitywx said: Just like 96 Exactly. There was a dying low over TN that held us to sleet during the heart of the precip jntil the coastal bombed and the cold collapsed behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RDU goes above freezing after 36 hours, after which there is a period of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looking at the graphics on pivotalweater CLT could get destroyed with ICE with 1.27 inches....hopefully most of that is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 think we have some confusion on the placement of the low at 39 . a bit erratic on the precip and temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 1:18 PM, deltadog03 said: Yes sir! I think the models, and the NWS offices are under-estimating that RH fields, the cold punch at 5k...etc....That will be very fun to watch...Get ready sir, y'all are gonna get hit hard with ICE IMHO Just saw the 6z NAM is giving all of SC back end snow except over my head with a green blip in the center of that heavier reflectivity in Dorchester County lol. The occlusion looks very reminiscent of the JAN 2000 wraparound where I scored a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 DC is getting raked at hr 45. GEEZ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 995 low makes landfall near Morehead City around h42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:24 PM, UpStateCAD said: looking at the graphics on pivotalweater CLT could get destroyed with ICE with 1.27 inches....hopefully most of that is sleet. I pray it's not this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:25 PM, Wow said: think we have some confusion on the placement of the low at 39 . a bit erratic on the precip and temp profiles. Yeah, noticed the same thing in the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:24 PM, UpStateCAD said: looking at the graphics on pivotalweater CLT could get destroyed with ICE with 1.27 inches....hopefully most of that is sleet. I think that extens through the upstate and northern SC FRZ IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Could be rough on the Outer Banks this weekend US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 3 hrs · Here is the latest on the Coastal Low which will impact the region Friday into Saturday. #encwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:23 PM, Poimen said: RDU goes above freezing after 36 hours, after which there is a period of rain. It's so close. The maps look to keep RDU at or below freezing for the whole event; but these are maps.. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looks like ALL the mountains are getting the goods this run..even the far southwest border counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:21 PM, oconeexman said: Face it, it's not going to happen here or there. Icy mess for the upstate at best or wrose dending on how your look at it. Some will get a nice back side snow after the mess. Some will get the lee side screw! Most likely nw gville and Spartanburg, Cherokee and Union get the transfer snow. Not being a weenie but I thought the the GFS showed some snow for the upstate area??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:31 PM, snowbird1230 said: looks like ALL the mountains are getting the goods this run..even the far southwest border countiesnice deformation band comes through on the backside and probably drops 3-5 in the southern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:33 PM, lilj4425 said: Not being a weenie but I thought the the GFS showed some snow for the upstate area???Mostly ZR and sleet. The bulk of the qpf depicted is not snow. You may do okay in gville though with a couple of inches afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:33 PM, lilj4425 said: Not being a weenie but I thought the the GFS showed some snow for the upstate area??? I think with the strength of this system too much warm air gets pulled into the column for us to be all snow......very seldom works out that way in the upstate regardless of what the models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1.75 QPF for KDAN.. It's so close to being all snow but IP tries to mix in at times during the heaviest precip. NAM definitely trending better from 00Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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