deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:02 AM, HWY316wx said: Look at the CAD signature... is it just me or has that become more pronounced in the different models tonight... EURO no different. All the way to Atlanta! yes...this HAS to be watched very carefully...my maps will include this..FFC needs to wake up about this...EURO is hellbent on making it colder...NAM and GFS and CMC did that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 BEST euro look, or darn close for a lot of people...I know there has been snowier ones over NC, but ice central....wow!! 2m are COOLD......EURO is locked folks...Wouldn't bet against it...Nice comma head down to BHM-ATL (or darn close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:06 AM, NCSNOW said: 3 hours latter still heavy/mod snow west from charlotte gastonia up to wake county a Pretty good run for backend snow for NC...much more QPF as the storm exits than the 00z had with a quick look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:05 AM, deltadog03 said: smashes biotches left and right...2M is damn cold...and euro is slightly warmer bias as well....WOW, this is icy as hell in the CAD areas... Still have the back end light snow for north east sc/ southeast nc? Pretty consistently been getting the .1-1 inch on snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro might even be better snow wise this run for the southern Piedmont. Definitely all snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even if it doesn't start off as snow, I still count over 1" QPF as potential snow for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:08 AM, Queencitywx said: Euro might even be better snow wise this run for the southern Piedmont. Definitely all snow up here. This is the best run yet for us. Looks like all-snow based on the 6-hr panels (850s never above -1C... maybe a little sleet, but meh). 2m temps are in the mid 20s. Wow. We get crushed in the hr 42-48 timeframe. A bit wetter than the 12z Euro, too. I am weenieing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:11 AM, superjames1992 said: This is the best run yet for us. Looks like all-snow based on the 6-hr panels (850s never above -1C... maybe a little sleet, but meh). 2m temps are in the mid 20s. Wow. We get crushed in the hr 42-48 timeframe. 850s crash in on Saturday morning. Gonna be some nice, fluffy snow to finish off just like 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:07 AM, Jon said: Pretty good run for backend snow for NC...much more QPF as the storm exits than the 00z had with a quick look. Yes it is. Wonder what pulls it ne from Louisiana to central Al, then it goes back se through GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:11 AM, superjames1992 said: This is the best run yet for us. Looks like all-snow based on the 6-hr panels (850s never above -1C... maybe a little sleet, but meh). 2m temps are in the mid 20s. Wow. We get crushed in the hr 42-48 timeframe. A bit wetter than the 12z Euro, too. I am weenieing out. nothin' wrong with that. Guidance off the best model in the biz for our area at T-minus 24 hours is showing the type of storm we're happy to see once a decade in central NC. Enjoy the weenie-dom. I am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If I was along a line from about Newberry to Winnsboro to Camden, I'd be buying as many candles as I can though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The clown by Friday at lunch has alot of western and central nc over 6 inches, all mtn counties approaching 1 foot. I beleive this is all snow no ice. Correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:12 AM, Queencitywx said: 850s crash in on Saturday morning. Gonna be some nice, fluffy snow to finish off just like 1996 Looks like 15-20" if we can take that run, verbatim, allowing for some compaction and maybe a little mixing. And that really goes for the entirety of the areas N/W of I-85, seemingly. Absolutely phenomenal. And it's not like these obscene totals are coming from some fluke deformation band that might or might not show up. I am not sure if I have ever seen such huge totals over such a large area so close to a storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:17 AM, SimeonNC said: But other models run a much different trend, what makes you think that we can trust this one over the others? At this point, decades of experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:17 AM, SimeonNC said: But other models run a much different trend, what makes you think that we can trust this one over the others? For starters...it has proven itself superior the vast majority of the time for bending on about 20 years in the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:14 AM, btownheel said: nothin' wrong with that. Guidance off the best model in the biz for our area at T-minus 24 hours is showing the type of storm we're happy to see once a decade in central NC. Enjoy the weenie-dom. I am.... The GFS appears to in line as far as totals may be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:19 AM, Queencitywx said: At this point, decades of experience. haha, I like this answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:17 AM, SimeonNC said: But other models run a much different trend, what makes you think that we can trust this one over the others? I did not notice any trend towards less wintry weather on any of the models aside from the NAM, for the most part, and the NAM may have just had a flukey run (plus... it's the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:19 AM, superjames1992 said: Looks like 15-20" if we can take that run, verbatim, allowing for some compaction and maybe a little mixing. And that really goes for the entirety of the areas N/W of I-85, seemingly. Absolutely phenomenal. And it's not like these obscene totals are coming from some fluke deformation band that might or might not show up. I am not sure if I have ever seen such huge totals over such a large area so close to a storm here. Not off the king 24 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Excitedly awaiting ECMWF snow maps/QPF details, I wonder if the upstate is able to eke out a little front end and then back end snow to add to our endless sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Of note, the Euro tracks the surface low offshore east of Hatteras. That helps a lot of us out a lot. Looks like it transfers to the CHS area and then is at 992 mb ~50-75 miles ESE of Cape Lookout at hr 54. Afterwards, it kind of hooks left as it bombs out and goes over the Pamlico, but by then all we have is wraparound snow with central/northern VA getting the hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:16 AM, Queencitywx said: If I was along a line from about Newberry to Winnsboro to Camden, I'd be buying as many candles as I can though. After the other modeling.. I would expect the Euro to be just a tad warm.. the line might would drop to around Orangeburg, SC when all said and done. With that said, I would assume the NWS will start issuing winter weather/ice watches/warnings/advisories further down towards the Central Midlands soon. I think they'll hold off on the Central Midlands (if it is even needed at all) until 12z earliest. Euro is close though.. right across Lake Murray its freezing.. and..... heavy precip... 33F right there in Lexington/Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:22 AM, superjames1992 said: Of note, the Euro tracks the surface low offshore east of Hatteras. That helps a lot of us out a lot. wasn't that the UKMET track pretty much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:22 AM, superjames1992 said: Of note, the Euro tracks the surface low offshore east of Hatteras. That helps a lot of us out a lot. A track that far east would take care of concerns over a dry slot, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You guys enjoy the snow of a lifetime. I'm jealous. But the biggest story of this whole storm could be the devoloping severe ice storm for northeast ga and others. I love ice storms, but idk if I like what the euro is showing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:24 AM, BIG FROSTY said: wasn't that the UKMET track pretty much? I think the UKMET track was perhaps slightly further west over the Pamlico Sound (then again, it might have hooked left like the Euro... I don't have the hr 54 panel for it). The Euro's track actually lines up almost perfectly with the 00z GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:24 AM, SimeonNC said: Does this include IP/ZR? Yes, but their point stands: Only the NAM showed a real decrease in wintry weather, and that was because it was too far NW. NAM is known to be too far NW/amplified with its tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:26 AM, superjames1992 said: I think the UKMET track was perhaps slightly further west over the Pamlico Sound (then again, it might have hooked left like the Euro... I don't have the hr 54 panel for it). The Euro's track actually lines up almost perfectly with the 00z GEFS mean. Well the main thing it's what we want!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:26 AM, superjames1992 said: I think the UKMET track was perhaps slightly further west over the Pamlico Sound (then again, it might have hooked left like the Euro... I don't have the hr 54 panel for it). The Euro's track actually lines up almost perfectly with the 00z GEFS mean. At 24 hours to go; that's extremely good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 6:22 AM, chapelhillwx said: Excitedly awaiting ECMWF snow maps/QPF details, I wonder if the upstate is able to eke out a little front end and then back end snow to add to our endless sleet and ZR. I'm not allowed to post that. 22" Boone 20" Wilkesboro 18" Winston 13-14" Charlotte Area I'll send you a PM of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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