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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:37 AM, CentralNC said:

Careful when you say "Central NC".  I will just about guarantee here in the western piedmont it will not be a "decent rain event"

 

I dont consider W-S "Central NC". You guys are Western Pied/foothills. If some want to interpret that as "west-central NC" so be it.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:44 AM, beanskip said:

GFS -- stronger, slower, north -- 3 for 3 tonight.

less north, more stronger with the ULL. It transfers a bit further south and the primary holds on longer. Also a little colder.

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Cold Rain has mentioned the dry slot a few times.  One thing I find interesting here is that this system is a slow mover and areas in NC are underneath the warm advection / overrunning precipitation for some 15-18 hours before the dry slot moves in....then the deformation band may move through behind the dry slot for light to moderate precip if the upper low tracks far enough south

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:54 AM, griteater said:

Cold Rain has mentioned the dry slot a few times. One thing I find interesting here is that this system is a slow mover and areas in NC are underneath the warm advection / overrunning precipitation for some 15-18 hours before the dry slot moves in....then the deformation band may move through behind the dry slot for light to moderate precip if the upper low tracks far enough south

That would be nice, though I think your area would do better with that than mine.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:54 AM, griteater said:

Cold Rain has mentioned the dry slot a few times. One thing I find interesting here is that this system is a slow mover and areas in NC are underneath the warm advection / overrunning precipitation for some 15-18 hours before the dry slot moves in....then the deformation band may move through behind the dry slot for light to moderate precip if the upper low tracks far enough south

Kinda on topic, but I don't understand the point of "forecasting" the dry slot when it can refill anyway and relies heavily on banding/radar/satellite viewing. I mean someone will get dry slotted, but to say t will be RDU is a little premature, IMO.
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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:52 AM, SN_Lover said:

What in the world is everyone seeing? The ULL is deff more south and it's colder. 

 

You are correct, it is further south and stronger ala Euro but holds that primary low longer and kills off any wraparound snow chances.  Other than that it's a good trend.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:55 AM, WeatherNC said:

Close to 4' for CHO through 66hrs and still ripping.  As Calc stated, much better snow sig west of 77 in NC, sharp cutoff east of there though, Danville is at 16" while GSO is <1"

 

A bit puzzling looking at the Skew-Ts for GSO... The one I posted above is below freezing throughout the column and there's a ton of QPF in that range.  Likewise, the hr 36 sounding looks snowy and the ones after 39 are either right at freezing or just above (probably mostly sleet).  I'd imagine more than 1" of that is snow.  And the remainder looks like sleet, which would add to accumulations to some degree (3:1ish ratio).

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:46 AM, DopplerWx said:

gfs rough. rain for rdu after early sleet.  slp on the coast

Huh? raw data showing close to 1 inch liquid qpf all freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain. that would be bad ice, and that assumes the model is breaking down the wedge correctly.

 

Changeover at RDU is certainly possible although not a given either.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:51 AM, superjames1992 said:

Hr 36-39 is a drubbing with heavy snow for US64 northward (and probably a bit south of that).  Clear snow sounding at GSO.  I-40/I-85 flirts with snow vs. IP/ZR for a lot of the storm.

 

34xl2rr.gif

Bout lines up with van Denton map to a t for mby. 4 to 5 snow, then .50 qpf as solid ice, just hope it's all sleet. Even DT had the 4-8 strip through mby. Both jump into 6-9 your area the 12 rural hall to 16 ish mta airy. We stay all frozen on even the nam so not worried about that. The FREEZING Rain POTENTIAL On 0z NAM Makes My Stomach turn. Got paralyzed with over a inch qpf freezing rain Dec 2002 and it was boderline catastrophic never want to come close to that again, esp having to take care of parents now along with kids wife. Onto the canadian

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  On 1/21/2016 at 4:00 AM, RaleighWx said:

Huh? raw data showing close to 1 inch liquid qpf all freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain. that would be bad ice, and that assumes the model is breaking down the wedge correctly.

 

Changeover at RDU is certainly possible although not a given either.

Do you know where the new BUFKIT links are?

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  On 1/21/2016 at 3:57 AM, Jon said:

Kinda on topic, but I don't understand the point of "forecasting" the dry slot when it can refill anyway and relies heavily on banding/radar/satellite viewing. I mean someone will get dry slotted, but to say t will be RDU is a little premature, IMO.

I look at it like this....with this kind of strong, wound up system, the overrunning portion of the precip is very reliable / not splotchy on radar, instead, a solid shield of precip moving in...then the dry slot moves in where the precip weakens quite a bit, then we may get into some backside deformation band precip.  My main point was that a dry slot will definitely develop, however, there is some 15-18 hours of solid precip before it moves in.

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  On 1/21/2016 at 4:03 AM, RaleighWx said:

GFS-13 km snowfall through hour 72. Keep in mind this is just frozen precip (snow and ice) not just snow .but you can see the hi-res is seeiing alot of this qpf in the form of frozen even at RDU.

 

Sad thing is we're not getting 14" of snow at RDU.  Likely not even 4"

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  On 1/21/2016 at 4:00 AM, RaleighWx said:

Huh? raw data showing close to 1 inch liquid qpf all freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain. that would be bad ice, and that assumes the model is breaking down the wedge correctly.

Thnx. Words of reason. Thx Jon too

Thanks Allan and Jon. It's confusing when some people say it's over for RDU. All rain....

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  On 1/21/2016 at 4:02 AM, WidreMann said:

Do you know where the new BUFKIT links are?

 

Hi sir.  I asked the local weather office around here and they have changed a bit around.  They recommend the following sites:

 

PSU

Warehouse

 

It's not as clean as the old way, but it does work.  I manually put urls in when i need to view them (on bufget).

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