SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:21 AM, chapelhillwx said: Weirdly at hour 36 it's colder at the surface. Don't worry about that. The low will override that in a heartbeat. We need the low to stay south. Lets pray this isn't a trend. Glad i didn't call out of work Friday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam looks colder. 2m 0c down to Lanier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Funnily enough, the hr 45 panel from the 00z NAM is a bit colder in the mid-levels (earlier panels were warmer) than the 18z hr 51 panel. Looks like the NC border counties are snowing (though I haven't looked at the Skew-Ts). Looks like it's transferring now. Lots of snow in the NC mountains and S VA on both the 18z and 00z, in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still a major ICE Storm for Upstate and most other areas as well. But how can stronger HP pushing in stronger CAD cause the ULL to be further North? Something seems weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:23 AM, beanskip said: Wow -- crazy swing from NAM this close to event -- big jog north -- 2ms hold up in Carolinas, but 850s not even close -- this would be all ice. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_T850_seus_15.png What am I missing? 850s look good in WNC when heavy precip is overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:24 AM, SN_Lover said: Don't worry about that. The low will override that in a heartbeat. We need the low to stay south. Lets pray this isn't a trend. Glad i didn't call out of work Friday yet. Models typically play catch-up with CAD as an event approaches, so I'm not really sure why I would ignore surface temps being colder. It's just one run why cliff dive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:23 AM, beanskip said: Wow -- crazy swing from NAM this close to event -- big jog north -- 2ms hold up in Carolinas, but 850s not even close -- this would be all ice. Yep. Not pretty at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I mean at hour 42 vs. 48 of the 18z run, the 500 mb low goes from being in northwest Alabama to about 75-100 miles NW of there in Tennessee. That's a pretty big shift only 42 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:21 AM, Buddy1987 said: The orientation of the ULL to me it looks like it may be trying to transfer its energy can we concur on that? We get NAM'd. About a foot by 0z (7pm) Friday. Transfers to ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks good in the mountains. I-85 corridor, not so much. On 1/21/2016 at 2:25 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016012100/nam_T850_seus_15.png What am I missing? 850s look good in WNC when heavy precip is overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:23 AM, beanskip said: Wow -- crazy swing from NAM this close to event -- big jog north -- 2ms hold up in Carolinas, but 850s not even close -- this would be all ice. All stems from wrapping up the ULL too quickly. The confluent flow over the NE is going to prevent the trough axis from going negative and drawing the primary this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yet when the transfer happens, it looks like the new low is actually south of the 18z position? This run is screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This run is a very close call for the I-40 corridor from GSO to HKY. The snow/sleet line hangs out right along I-40 for a sizable portion of the storm. Areas north of there get quite a bit of snow while areas to the south get mostly IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ice accumulations go up, snow totals come down some. Not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Better sampled storm now you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey, who am I to question you -- this storm should be named after you!!! Definitely a run that just doesn't add up. I sure hope so -- that's a lot of ice ... On 1/21/2016 at 2:29 AM, Wow said: All stems from wrapping up the ULL too quickly. The confluent flow over the NE is going to prevent the trough axis from going negative and drawing the primary this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:30 AM, CaryWx said: Better sampled storm now you think? IDK, I'd wait to see what the other models do before jumping to any conclusions. May just be the NAM being bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, right after I dissed the SREF the NAM comes out and goes from 20" in AVL to 5". This is after I already paid a non refundable deposit on a hotel room..... :axe: I hope this is just the NAM being the NAM. but I have a sinking feeling in my gut..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:30 AM, CaryWx said: Better sampled storm now you think? I don't really buy into the sampling idea, in general. Our worldwide observation network is excellent these days. Frankly, maybe it's just the NAM, which tends to overamplify storms, being the NAM. Or maybe it's not... time will tell. Oftentimes, the NAM is the NW outlier, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:24 AM, deltadog03 said: Nam looks colder. 2m 0c down to Lanier You must be referring to after the bulk of the moisture passes. It barely reaches the SC/GA border through the bulk of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I do believe the high was a little stronger this run thus it accounted for the more northern track of the ULL. That is an absolute crushing up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weird qpf run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:33 AM, Thrasher Fan said: You must be referring to after the bulk of the moisture passes. It barely reaches the SC/GA boarder through the bulk of the stormUmm from what I could tell it's colder into GA cad areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Firehose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good point. Does not make sense. On 1/21/2016 at 2:35 AM, Cold Rain said: How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:35 AM, Cold Rain said: How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? It's the darn nam man. Only way to explain it. Huge thump tho before the transfer for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nbram87 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:32 AM, Cheeznado said: Wow, right after I dissed the SREF the NAM comes out and goes from 20" in AVL to 5". This is after I already paid a non refundable deposit on a hotel room..... :axe: I hope this is just the NAM being the NAM. but I have a sinking feeling in my gut..... As a fellow meteorologist I definitely respect your opinion. However I do not understand how you are bittercasting. You chose the worst model for winter precip for Raleigh and then hug it. What is the meteorological explanation for the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:35 AM, Cold Rain said: How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? Easy. As Wow said, the ULL cuts off too soon. The surface high and surface cold air does not matter if the upper and mid levels do not cooperate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:35 AM, Cold Rain said: How does a stronger high, more wedging, and a colder solution lead to a more northern track, more rain and less snow? Simple..... it doesn't..... Just like WOW said. The high will not allow it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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