deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:39 AM, Buddy1987 said: At 66 precip is exploding over Georgia. ULL is in the middle of Tennessee and still southwest of its position from 18. Has anyone seen 2m temps? Because 850s don't look as good although the high is still in a good spot up in northern New England. 2m are COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:39 AM, Buddy1987 said: At 66 precip is exploding over Georgia. ULL is in the middle of Tennessee and still southwest of its position from 18. Has anyone seen 2m temps? Because 850s don't look as good although the high is still in a good spot up in northern New England. Low 30s across upstate at hr63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 78 is warmer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Southern NAM ... better keep your head. Let's see how and where the energy gets to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:41 AM, deltadog03 said: 2m are COLD Yea just saw that now. Wow! Northern North Carolina is in for a treat. If you haven't seen the 78 hr image it is might impressive with the storm literally blowing up. Deep purples up and down the coast line of SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM suggests nasty ice storm for much of western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 84 hour NAM, throw it out! ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM says how you like a Ice storm upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is one hell of a coastal though from 78-84. If we can manage to get in that deformation and CCB it will be amazing. Nam was actually close to something just as good as euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Im not really to concerned about thermals at this point...its a bit warmer than the EURO, but looks colder than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 N VA just gets straight crushed. Snowfall maps there will be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run of the NAM seems to have most QPF at 69 then the 18Z at the sometime. Also suggest, as others have stated, ice way down in the CAD zone. Also to note at the Deform band is showing up at the end of the run. BTW, since we have a ton of folks on tonight. Subscription Drive 2016 is here! Hook it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upper levels look awesome. Who cares what it say's at the sfc this far out. It's pretty much worthless in that respect past 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 500mb at 66hrs is pretty sick Carved out trough is pretty much lock step with the 12z run at 78hrs. If anything, the close-off has better placement in the center of the trough, as opposed to the nw side as seen in the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Asheville area is very close to mostly snow with 850 hPa temperature, but we'll have to check out soundings in a bit for other levels. Boone got hit pretty good that run. 500 low is also incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like that the 84h NAM did 84h NAM things and went NNW on the last frame. edit: Radio show stealing my material! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:46 AM, deltadog03 said: Im not really to concerned about thermals at this point...its a bit warmer than the EURO, but looks colder than GFS. this run is still north of the euro and others but even so it manages to get some freezing rain down to lake lanier/just north of gainesville with a decent amount of backside snow. in fact, north ga mountains do fairly well with upwards of 6 inches. This being the long range nam, it's almost useless though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:50 AM, Dunkman said: I like that the 84h NAM did 84h NAM things and went NNW on the last frame. It's all about 5h brother. The surface will be way better imho as nam gets more into its range. It def dug a lot more and popped the low further south to begin and then did some nam things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is about 100 miles south of the 18z GFS. Looks like this is the case of the insane warm nose. well see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pushing two contours of close off at 250mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Boss. Such a nice flow for the old number 84. On 1/20/2016 at 2:54 AM, WeatherNC said: Pushing two contours of close off at 250mb NAM250mb.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So what's the track of the ull? Over SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:28 AM, WeatherNC said: Quick reminder - Special AmericanWx Radio Show in 2 minutes http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/20/american-weather-radio-show-potential-east-coast-storm-122-1242016 Listened for 15'. Mid Atlantic Northern Virginia kumbaya and not a word about anything accumulating anywhere in NC. They actually said the 0z Nam is better for further north into New England based on the 500mbCan someone provide a full summary later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:57 AM, CaryWx said: So what's the track of the ull? Over SC? Pretty much, yep, but its in a very sketchy part of the run (past 48 hours) so take with several grains of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:59 AM, SimeonNC said: So according to the NAM most of the precip over CLT will be in the form of frz rain/sleet right? Freezing rain to rain. Edit:might not be rain depending where you like. I85 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 2:59 AM, nchighcountrywx said: Listened for 15'. Mid Atlantic Northern Virginia kumbaya and not a word about anything accumulating anywhere in NC. They actually said the 0z Nam is better for further north into New England based on the 500mb Can someone provide a full summary later? I'm on the phone waiting to ask them about NC. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not to go banter, but I would assume as much On 1/20/2016 at 2:59 AM, nchighcountrywx said: Listened for 15'. Mid Atlantic Northern Virginia kumbaya and not a word about anything accumulating anywhere in NC. They actually said the 0z Nam is better for further north into New England based on the 500mbCan someone provide a full summary later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Folks, it is the NAM at it's extreme range, pay no attention to it past 48-60 hours on temps, track, or amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 On 1/20/2016 at 3:03 AM, BIG FROSTY said: I'm on the phone waiting to ask them about NC. lolLol go Frosty go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Could be NAM's bias to over amplify. That would be my guess. Models also tend to underdo strength of the cad. Nam has this flaw too. It is good at sniffing out low level cold but as stated tends to over amplify and overproduce on qpf amounts a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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