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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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Dedicated thread for this one.  Looks like someone going to get hit with a good one.

 

What took you guys so long? Best look of the season for parts of NC. As usual it's not a slam dunk but a pretty darn good look. I posted the long range in the Mnt-Foothill thread from GSP. They def. have their eyes on it! Good luck guys......hope it breaks right for ya!

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Let's bring this puppy south!

Not sure how much more south the system will come but I think the CAD will start showing stronger as we get closer to the event. I'm really not wish-casting when I think we have a good chance of a major winter storm for our area. I'll repost what RAH said last night:

 

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL

NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER

PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST

MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN

THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL

FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION

OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST

PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE

COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING

SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED

DURING THIS PERIOD.

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6z gfs snow maps were terrible for rdu, so close to the big totals to our N.  i just dont see this one coming far enough S to help us.  will most likely see a small S trend and then within 72hrs it will start the dreaded NW trend that we always see in these situations.  nc mtns look to be in a prime spot though.

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GSP pretty bullish at this point, at least for them.  Good to see since they are usually very conservative, as they should be:

AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATESTRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAYMORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGIONDURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILLSTRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROFRIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFSINDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OFTHE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALEFORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATEDSEVERAL CONCERNS.FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATETO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURINGTHE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD ANEXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT ISIF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM.SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30SACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTHOF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. IWILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSSTHE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATETO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNSTHROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS.THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTICCOAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDSWILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSSTHE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILLFALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EASTACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THERAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONSWILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
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Here's what the point forecast currently says for the KJNX area

 

Friday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday
A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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For us in the W piedmont of NC/SC, to keep this an all snow event, we need the ULL to remain pos tilted until it crosses the MS river, else it's going to pull a stronger primary low up into the TN valley before hopping to the coast.  

 

It's very close to being a full throated Miller A coming out of the GOM if the wave digs just a little farther south.

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Not sure how much more south the system will come but I think the CAD will start showing stronger as we get closer to the event. I'm really not wish-casting when I think we have a good chance of a major winter storm for our area. I'll repost what RAH said last night:

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL

NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER

PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST

MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN

THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL

FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION

OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST

PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE

COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING

SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED

DURING THIS PERIOD.

If the CAD increases the south trend will continue because it would mean the high in the NE is getting stronger each run and the confluence is getting stronger . Hard to get an increased cad with a NW trend .

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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If the CAD increases the south trend will continue because it would mean the high in the NE is getting stronger each run and the confluence is getting stronger . Hard to get an increased cad with a NW trend .

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

If CAD increases, this will help pushing winter wx into the piedmont.  More ice than anything if the sfc low pulls up toward TN first before jumping to the coast.  If it maintains a miller A track, definitely a big snow threat.

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6z gfs snow maps were terrible for rdu, so close to the big totals to our N.  i just dont see this one coming far enough S to help us.  will most likely see a small S trend and then within 72hrs it will start the dreaded NW trend that we always see in these situations.  nc mtns look to be in a prime spot though.

The way I see this for the RDU is it's going to come down to how strong the CAD develops. Right now I think we have equal chances for it to be stronger, stay the same, or even trend weaker. So maybe a 33% chance of a major storm(we' very close). And of course the NW piedmont could be closer to 66% and so on. 

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From GSP

 

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 4 AM MONDAY...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD 1027 MB SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION BY 12Z THURS. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TO THE WEST...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATX
AROUND DAYBREAK THURS. THURSDAY...MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...I WILL FORECAST GENERALLY A COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SN ACCUMS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...MELTING LATER IN THE DAY.

AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE
STRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
STRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROF
RIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS
INDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATED
SEVERAL CONCERNS.

FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT IS
IF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM.

SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTH
OF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. I
WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS.


THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSS
THE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EAST
ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THE
RAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

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The way I see this for the RDU is it's going to come down to how strong the CAD develops. Right now I think we have equal chances for it to be stronger, stay the same, or even trend weaker. So maybe a 33% chance of a major storm(we' very close). And of course the NW piedmont could be closer to 66% and so on.

Aren't CADs normally underdone by models, especially at this range? I think if we can get the low to continue trending south, at least Central/Western NC will be set for a nice winter storm.

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For us in the W piedmont of NC/SC, to keep this an all snow event, we need the ULL to remain pos tilted until it crosses the MS river, else it's going to pull a stronger primary low up into the TN valley before hopping to the coast.

It's very close to being a full throated Miller A coming out of the GOM if the wave digs just a little farther south.

it has to dig like the ukie.
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