Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Par GFS 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS Para closes off the 500 and just dumps on the area. 2.5"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS Para closes off the 500 and just dumps on the area. 2.5"+ QPF. Can you link? I always seem to lose this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z para gfs is another run tossed in the insane bucket. H5 is beautiful. Qpf is jaw dropping. Not sure what else to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can you link? I always seem to lose this one... GFS-Para link: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Bob, it is simply amazing. Just the WAA snows alone would be MECS territoy. That isn't even counting the snow thta would fall after the low completes the phase and begins to bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Par GFS 18z par.gif just looked at classic storm tracks Ian posted on twitter this look better than all past great storm in my eyes. the way it stacks and booms is just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I HATE forecasting model runs, but if I were to guess the EURO is going to amazing. It has a slightly more open trough which could it be a tad farther E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Bob, it is simply amazing. Just the WAA snows alone would be MECS territoy. That isn't even counting the snow thta would fall after the low completes the phase and begins to bomb Hypothetically...if h5 goes down like what we are seeing today...the rates will be unreal and tssn would be a guarantee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So the 18z Para gfs is the most recent? Its 0z run wont come out for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So the 18z Para gfs is the most recent? Its 0z run wont come out for a while? Not until 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So the 18z Para gfs is the most recent? Its 0z run wont come out for a while?Yes it comes out around 6 hours after the Op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Low is farther SE than 12z, this is gonna end up epic I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro day 4 maps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Low is farther SE than 12z, this is gonna end up epic I think you realize this storm develops in 78-84 hours? We are almost in NAM range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wes would REALLY approve of the 00z EURO, the low is farther SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 snow gets to DC around 8am Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WAA snows in VA @ 114 hours, the main energy is still rounding the base of the trough, once that catches up it will explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 you realize this storm develops in 78-84 hours? We are almost in NAM range lol FWIW the 0z NAM had lows in similar positions to the 0z GFS but weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 THis is a much better run for parts of the SE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 snow gets to DC around 8am FridayA little later than 12z probably because slp is a bit further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Textbook h5 at 108 on this run. Neutral trough centered over the MS river and the base is over New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Day 5 euro maps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Textbook h5 at 102 on this run. Neutral trough centered over the MS river and the base is over New Orleans.Bob what do they say about the trough orientation for huge snowstorms in the mid Atlantic? Is it in perfect position about eastern Oklahoma? Anything further east and it starts to cut too much? this is so awesome lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 rakage at 132, 135, 138 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CCB snows clobbering the big cities @ 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 you couldn't ask for a more perfect transfer location for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Day 5 euro maps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Wow, for me that is a significant shift southeast. Guess DT was all over that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS had a sharper troff and closed off H5 by 120hrs, Euro still a big hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 sick run...cold run...crushes all of DC/balt metro with snow...no mixing worries for DC/Balt Metro...Much more coastal influence and less from WAA...does give me concern about suppression...but whatever...huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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