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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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Looks like a mixed bag with the ensembles. A handful of ugly solutions and some big ones mixed in there. Sign up for e5. 9 members give DC less than an inch of liquid, but there are some really big numbers in there on the rest. 

 

 

Yeah, a mixed bag is a good description.  I count 3 that are OTS, comparable to 18z.  It seems that GEFS has trended away from a KY transfer which is good.  

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Not if you look at the individual ensembles. There's plenty of historical ensemble members

i was speaking to the GOAT totals that the ops spit out. 3-5" qpf is pretty epic. looks like the members are in the 1.5"-2.0" range which is good but the op was WOW!

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To be expected. No way the ensembles lock in with the ull raking. There will be spread for days. No way around it. The op was an extreme solution.

Likewise, I'd expect the ops to waver back and forth over the next few days too from run to run. The "crazy runs" we saw today are probably about the max case scenario. As long as the ops and ensembles keep showing a great hit even if not extreme, that would be good. I suspect there will be panic of some sort if/when we don't see these 30"+ amounts on future runs, even if they still pummel us.

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I was actually surprised to see the mean close it off.... That's a big deal for 4.5 days out

First gefs run to do it. EPS has done it at least 2 in a row. Very strong consensus for a closed h5 low attm in a really nice spot. If we are going to get something in the top echelon of MA storms it has to have that ingredient. Good stuff

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i forgot about last year....the Euro model showed 30 inches of snow for NYC like 36 hours out and they ended up getting 6-8. The model runs look great but historic storms are historic for the reason. With that being said, this stuff is jaw dropping lol

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i forgot about last year....the Euro model showed 30 inches of snow for NYC like 36 hours out and they ended up getting 6-8. The model runs look great but historic storms are historic for the reason. With that being said, this stuff is jaw dropping lol

Different beast I think..we are dealing with a classic Miller A.

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