DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 if u look at the actual maps the r/s line gets very close to dc Please excuse a stupid question but how is SE better on the GEFS? The op run looks sweet and strong. Is it the mixing that the op would bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Please excuse a stupid question but how is SE better on the GEFS? The op run looks sweet and strong. Is it the mixing that the op would bring?Because I95 turns to rain on the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 looking at the gefs it looks like there is very minimal if any support for the qpf of the op Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Slightly, yes. or so it appears..... A bit more agreement I think than the 18z...correct me if I am mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 looking at the gefs it looks like there is very minimal if any support for the qpf of the op Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk To be expected. No way the ensembles lock in with the ull raking. There will be spread for days. No way around it. The op was an extreme solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There are about 10 members that give DC at least 1.5" liquid. looking at the gefs it looks like there is very minimal if any support for the qpf of the opSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 if u look at the actual maps the r/s line gets very close to dc Roger. Just wanted to make sure I understood the impact of each scenario. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I was actually surprised to see the mean close it off.... That's a big deal for 4.5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like a mixed bag with the ensembles. A handful of ugly solutions and some big ones mixed in there. Sign up for e5. 9 members give DC less than an inch of liquid, but there are some really big numbers in there on the rest. Yeah, a mixed bag is a good description. I count 3 that are OTS, comparable to 18z. It seems that GEFS has trended away from a KY transfer which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 looking at the gefs it looks like there is very minimal if any support for the qpf of the op Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not if you look at the individual ensembles. There's plenty of historical ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys, Bob nailed it. An ENS mean will always be smoother & less robust than the operational with an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 To be expected. No way the ensembles lock in with the ull raking. There will be spread for days. No way around it. The op was an extreme solution. Good point Bob and nice reminder for us. The OP will have a hard enough time nailing that 4 days out, let alone ensembles run at a lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not if you look at the individual ensembles. There's plenty of historical ensemble members i was speaking to the GOAT totals that the ops spit out. 3-5" qpf is pretty epic. looks like the members are in the 1.5"-2.0" range which is good but the op was WOW! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 To be expected. No way the ensembles lock in with the ull raking. There will be spread for days. No way around it. The op was an extreme solution. Likewise, I'd expect the ops to waver back and forth over the next few days too from run to run. The "crazy runs" we saw today are probably about the max case scenario. As long as the ops and ensembles keep showing a great hit even if not extreme, that would be good. I suspect there will be panic of some sort if/when we don't see these 30"+ amounts on future runs, even if they still pummel us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 FWIW the 18z Par GFS is rolling out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I was actually surprised to see the mean close it off.... That's a big deal for 4.5 days out First gefs run to do it. EPS has done it at least 2 in a row. Very strong consensus for a closed h5 low attm in a really nice spot. If we are going to get something in the top echelon of MA storms it has to have that ingredient. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I was actually surprised to see the mean close it off.... That's a big deal for 4.5 days out Indeed it is. Nice catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DGEX spitting out 47 inches for Woodbridge. I've seen it all. Insane thing is, take the rational path, slash that in half, its still a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LWX bumped east of the BR to the Orange/Enhanced winter storm threat and west of the BR to the Red/Moderate winter storm threat. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I get that we have pretty strong model consensus, but I'm still really surprised at how on board LWX, WPC, etc are this far out. I still feel like this is just some long range weenie storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z Par GFS looks amazing @ 114 hours, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can someone please explain to me what the Para is? How does it differ from operational GFS? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can someone please explain to me what the Para is? How does it differ from operational GFS? Thanks! it's essentially the "new GFS" because it will become the op GFS later this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC Ensemble ensemble mean looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not much difference in the 00z EURO @ 63 hours compared to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can someone please explain to me what the Para is? How does it differ from operational GFS? Thanks! They majorly changed the data assimilation method and I think corrected a small temperature issue. Other than that, it's the same as the current GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z Par GFS looks amazing @ 114 hours, wowIt snows for almost 2 days I think incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 i forgot about last year....the Euro model showed 30 inches of snow for NYC like 36 hours out and they ended up getting 6-8. The model runs look great but historic storms are historic for the reason. With that being said, this stuff is jaw dropping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z PAR GFS is basically a 30-40" type storm for parts of N VA, huge hit everywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 i forgot about last year....the Euro model showed 30 inches of snow for NYC like 36 hours out and they ended up getting 6-8. The model runs look great but historic storms are historic for the reason. With that being said, this stuff is jaw dropping lol Different beast I think..we are dealing with a classic Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.