Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ukie looks like the 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seriously, snowfalls of that magnitude could conceivably cause extremely severe problems. We are pretty well equipped for big snow here but I don't think there is a way to prepare for something like that. I remember hearing the exact same comments in the run-up to the Feb 10th storm, but in the end we mostly survived just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GOOD POST BOB .... T e only reason I am even considering this huge snow amounts is because of the enso / STJ ... I'll probably suffer some mixing issues during the transition from waa to CCB and dynamic upper air support if it goes down like what we are seeing but that's fine and I'm used to it. The tricky thing about closed h5 is it becomes a living breathing entity that almost always includes surprises. Models have a tough time 24 hours out let alone 4+ days. I know you know this far better than me. Just making a blanket statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ukie looks like the 12z EPSSweet. Generally the Euro looks similar to the Ukie so 0Z should be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What the temp/precip profile like? All snow?I don't think anyone has that beyond 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011800&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=284 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't think anyone has that beyond 72 hrs Thanks...not sure why that would get deleted. The last frame looks like the GFS where we might get into a mixing scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I remember hearing the exact same comments in the run-up to the Feb 10th storm, but in the end we mostly survived just fine. Yeah. I think 20-25 inches we are just seriously disrupted few days. Push around 30 and I would think impact ratchets up. Beyond that amount I have no capacity for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 for me and you, I think so GGEM start time about 6am Friday. I only have access to 850 and 2m temps but it looks to be all snow for us. Closest 850s get is south of Fredericksburg through St. Mary's county. It's about 1.4" QPF for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM weenie snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ggem would not o use it to wipe my ass Slightly off-topic, but check out the GFS @ 189 hours, the pattern almost repeats itself. It ends up closing off some huge ULL, but could you imagine? On-topic....00z UKIE, would be a huge hit for you guys. ukie.gif GGEM weenie snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011800&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=284 Closer up Canadian http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016011800/gem_asnow_neus_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 and waaay se of 0z GFS FRI 7PM Ukie looks like the 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GEFS way se of the op poisiton at 126 138 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's our energy in the Western Pacific I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's our energy in the Western Pacific I believe.Yes that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not really being talked about, but could be some interesting winds during the height of the event. Obviously far out yada yada but with something so dynamic... Good catch. The bigger events all have the strong influx from the Atlantic, but with that train comes the risk of mixing or even flipping. Again, most of the big events have featured both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GEFS mean looks good in terms of QPF, about 1-1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GEFS way se of the op poisiton at 126 138 144 hrsYee HawAre the precip maps greater or lesser than last couple runs (if you have them)? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good catch. The bigger events all have the strong influx from the Atlantic, but with that train comes the risk of mixing or even flipping. Again, most of the big events have featured both. Usually the east flow occurs in the 750-850 level though on those events, never at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There must be some whiffs among the members. The ensemble is way east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 the 0z GEFS is where the 0z euro eps has been for 3 days There must be some whiffs among the members. The ensemble is way east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yee Haw Are the precip maps greater or lesser than last couple runs (if you have them)? Thanks Please excuse a stupid question but how is SE better on the GEFS? The op run looks sweet and strong. Is it the mixing that the op would bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Please excuse a stupid question but how is SE better on the GEFS? The op run looks sweet and strong. Is it the mixing that the op would bring? In DT world it gives RIC more snow probably. But yeah, basically less mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GEFS has a couple of whiffs in there... Not at home to post a pic but there are lesser hits. Mean also well SE. Cause for pause? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like a mixed bag with the ensembles. A handful of ugly solutions and some big ones mixed in there. Sign up for e5. 9 members give DC less than an inch of liquid, but there are some really big numbers in there on the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS is all over the place. 3 complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That group of 3 that are about 800 miles east of the others likely skews our outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS is all over the place. A bit more agreement I think than the 18z...correct me if I am mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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