mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011800&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=477 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 dgex has the most snow south of town, but the dgex, euro, and gfs all have around 2 feet for DC. Amazing consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It was mentioned a couple of times earlier that the SSTs in the Atlantic are still quite warm. That's surely playing some role. Same for the SSTs in the Gulf. Especially off the west coast of Florida based on the maps that were shown. Combine the area of above normal temps in the GOM and the Atlantic with the depth of the trough and it seems all that energy is just sitting there to be tapped. And as someone said, that's got a somewhat tropical fetch potential to it or so it seems. I'm not an expert and hope to read more about if and how this is a contributing element to the explosiveness projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Temps gets iffy during the day Saturday. We've gotten like 20" by then dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It was mentioned a couple of times earlier that the SSTs in the Atlantic are still quite warm. That's surely playing some role. Lack of snowcover up north maybe causing a problems too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM is like 1.5 - 2"" for all of DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM is like 1.5 - 2"" for all of DC metroAll snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DGEX spitting out 47 inches for Woodbridge. I've seen it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What absolutely amazes me right now is that on all the models, whoever is in the deformation zone/CCB area once the low closes off is seeing models show 30-50" type snows. I mean this is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bheberto Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 More maps: http://www.weather5280.com/models/gfs/00z/conus/gfs-total-snow-accum?hour=150 Feedback welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lack of snowcover up north maybe causing a problems too. Well, perhaps yes. But I was mentioning the SSTs in relation to the explosive development and precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Going forward, no Euro wxbell maps are allowed to be posted. As much as I like the GFS run, I'm hugging the euro on this one..The GFS is a nice piece of the suite of solutions, but have to go with the better model, especially from this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will post Ukie when it comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 All snow? for me and you, I think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DGEX spitting out 47 inches for Woodbridge. I've seen it all. Are those amounts even possible? Things would be shut down for a bit. Even half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 for me and you, I think so GGEM was colder and slightly east from 12z 850S stay east of 95 and 32 stays east of 95. amazing run Central MD and southern PA got slammed with the deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The insane totals require all 8 cylinders hitting perfectly. The subtle details of h5 progression and close off location can't really be confidently determined for a couple days. Don't get me wrong. I want it as bad as the next guy but there is no way models have it nailed yet. The front side of the storm has strong agreement and it'd significant in itself. But the bomb and deform stuff is a moving target with a fairly wide margin of space as to where it sets us. But we can dream for now and sleep with our pj's inside out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As much as I like the GFS run, I'm hugging the euro on this one..The GFS is a nice piece of the suite of solutions, but have to go with the better model, especially from this range... Well to be honest at this point I think we'd all take the 12Z Euro and EPS. Those were about as equally remarkable. And the thermal fields were a bit more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seriously, snowfalls of that magnitude could conceivably cause extremely severe problems. We are pretty well equipped for big snow here but I don't think there is a way to prepare for something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 The insane totals require all 8 cylinders hitting perfectly. The subtle details of h5 progression and close off location can't really be confidently determined for a couple days. Don't get me wrong. I want it as bad as the next guy but there is no way models have it nailed yet. The front side of the storm has strong agreement and it'd significant in itself. But the bomb and deform stuff is a moving target with a fairly wide margin of space as to where it sets us. But we can dream for now and sleep with our pj's inside out. we won't really know until it unfolds where the lollipops will be, other than they will be North and West of DC....I just think us coastal plainers need to accept that we may mix.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GOOD POST BOB .... T e only reason I am even considering this huge snow amounts is because of the enso / STJ ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 for me and you, I think so Its close for a few hours based on temp maps for this run. Way too early to parse that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the GFS has 20-30 mph winds for much of central and eastern md for part of the storm. Would be some nice drifts (Understatement of the year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 we won't really know until it unfolds where the lollipops will be, other than they will be North and West of DC....I just think us coastal plainers need to accept that we may mix.... With the insane amounts of QPF we may get, 13-20" and mixing isn't all that bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seriously, snowfalls of that magnitude could conceivably cause extremely severe problems. We are pretty well equipped for big snow here but I don't think there is a way to prepare for something like that. Hopefully it has an absolutely crippling and devastating effect on our infrastructure...if it doesn't, it means we didn't get enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seriously, snowfalls of that magnitude could conceivably cause extremely severe problems. We are pretty well equipped for big snow here but I don't think there is a way to prepare for something like that. This would be no bigger than 2010. I had over 45 inches after the second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 UKIE at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Slightly off-topic, but check out the GFS @ 189 hours, the pattern almost repeats itself. It ends up closing off some huge ULL, but could you imagine? On-topic....00z UKIE, would be a huge hit for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The insane totals require all 8 cylinders hitting perfectly. The subtle details of h5 progression and close off location can't really be confidently determined for a couple days. Don't get me wrong. I want it as bad as the next guy but there is no way models have it nailed yet. The front side of the storm has strong agreement and it'd significant in itself. But the bomb and deform stuff is a moving target with a fairly wide margin of space as to where it sets us. But we can dream for now and sleep with our pj's inside out. Totally agree, Bob. The front end hits everyone pretty well with quite a bit and nice to see the model agreement on that. Beyond that is gravy I suppose, but it is looking like there will be some kind of bombing out and somewhere is going to get some amazing totals from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This would be no bigger than 2010. I had over 45 inches after the second storm I remember the plows getting to my house just as the snow started to fall for the second storm. The thing is we had a recovery period in Feb 2010. Imagine a plow trying to push 40" of snow all at once. That might put some plows over the limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.