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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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It was mentioned a couple of times earlier that the SSTs in the Atlantic are still quite warm. That's surely playing some role.

 

Same for the SSTs in the Gulf.  Especially off the west coast of Florida based on the maps that were shown.  Combine the area of above normal temps in the GOM and the Atlantic with the depth of the trough and it seems all that energy is just sitting there to be tapped.  And as someone said, that's got a somewhat tropical fetch potential to it or so it seems.  I'm not an expert and hope to read more about if and how this is a contributing element to the explosiveness projected. 

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The insane totals require all 8 cylinders hitting perfectly. The subtle details of h5 progression and close off location can't really be confidently determined for a couple days. Don't get me wrong. I want it as bad as the next guy but there is no way models have it nailed yet.

The front side of the storm has strong agreement and it'd significant in itself. But the bomb and deform stuff is a moving target with a fairly wide margin of space as to where it sets us. But we can dream for now and sleep with our pj's inside out.

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3207513.jpg

 

 

As much as I like the GFS run, I'm hugging the euro on this one..The GFS is a nice piece of the suite of solutions, but have to go with the better model, especially from this range...

Well to be honest at this point I think we'd all take the 12Z Euro and EPS. Those were about as equally remarkable. And the thermal fields were a bit more favorable.

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The insane totals require all 8 cylinders hitting perfectly. The subtle details of h5 progression and close off location can't really be confidently determined for a couple days. Don't get me wrong. I want it as bad as the next guy but there is no way models have it nailed yet.

The front side of the storm has strong agreement and it'd significant in itself. But the bomb and deform stuff is a moving target with a fairly wide margin of space as to where it sets us. But we can dream for now and sleep with our pj's inside out.

 

we won't really know until it unfolds where the lollipops will be, other than they will be North and West of DC....I just think us coastal plainers need to accept that we may mix....

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we won't really know until it unfolds where the lollipops will be, other than they will be North and West of DC....I just think us coastal plainers need to accept that we may mix....

 

With the insane amounts of QPF we may get, 13-20" and mixing isn't all that bad...

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Seriously, snowfalls of that magnitude could conceivably cause extremely severe problems. We are pretty well equipped for big snow here but I don't think there is a way to prepare for something like that.

 

Hopefully it has an absolutely crippling and devastating effect on our infrastructure...if it doesn't, it means we didn't get enough....

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The insane totals require all 8 cylinders hitting perfectly. The subtle details of h5 progression and close off location can't really be confidently determined for a couple days. Don't get me wrong. I want it as bad as the next guy but there is no way models have it nailed yet.

The front side of the storm has strong agreement and it'd significant in itself. But the bomb and deform stuff is a moving target with a fairly wide margin of space as to where it sets us. But we can dream for now and sleep with our pj's inside out.

Totally agree, Bob. The front end hits everyone pretty well with quite a bit and nice to see the model agreement on that. Beyond that is gravy I suppose, but it is looking like there will be some kind of bombing out and somewhere is going to get some amazing totals from that.

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This would be no bigger than 2010.  I had over 45 inches after the second storm

I remember the plows getting to my house just as the snow started to fall for the second storm. The thing is we had a recovery period in Feb 2010. Imagine a plow trying to push 40" of snow all at once. That might put some plows over the limit.

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