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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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i love this  run  up to 120 hrs  ...after that  I  cannot see the   how surface low  tracks over   ECG   at 126  hrs and  SBY at 135  hrs 

maybe that  is correct but to me  since the euro and euro  eps   has   been most consistent and the gfs  has  caved into  
to the  euro  eps   at 18z  and on this run  ... I   remain   very skeptical  of the GFS  surface  &   850  low track    after 120 hrs 
 

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Sorry if this is way off topic, but in the OP, there is mention of this being a "classic Archimbault event". Can someone here point me to more info or an explanation? My Google skills are failing me.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

Here's the research pub if you want to dig in a bit:

 

2010mwr.pdf

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138 vort panel is a big jump N and when you look at the overall path of the closed low it just looks funky on that panel.  It might be why there is a flirt with p type for DC

 

Yep, the progression as DT alluded to seems a little wonky there which is why 850s and 925s (all I've checked at this point) flirt above 0 for a bit which would mean possible mixing for the city verbatim.  I'd gladly run that risk given the huge amounts of QPF spit out.  

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