mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually Matt, it's a damn good run. 20-25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm curious when we start relying on the OP runs over the ensembles? Under 84 hours which would put us at the 12z suite tomorrow? In this particular setup probably tomorrow @ 12z would be the last time ens can provide meaningful details. Right now they are really locked in as it is. If 2 more ens suites look the same then ops probably show the best detail in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Plus the dry slot not too far to our SW....I don't really like this run at all....It isn't very far off from 0.75" of mixy 33 and sleet.... Kinda has a pd2ish look to my eyes as far as the front end thump and potential sleety dry slot is concerned. Key difference is we don't have that epic high to the north. I wasn't completely thrilled with the shift this run either. It's leaving less wiggle room IMO but u guys know more than I do. Onto the next runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Some areas changed to sleet in 1996 and still got 25+ and the ULL track looks very similar to 1996We are still far enough out to fail if shooting for a HECS in anyone's backyard for sure. But... I think we are pretty locked in at the mid levels given what we see across modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Getting demolished on every run is starting to get boring. Jackpotville's gonna jackptoville with some hefty backside action. Could you have seen yourself saying that two weeks ago? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually Matt, it's a damn good run. 20-25". I don't like it....flirting with disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Could you have seen yourself saying that two weeks ago? Lol I played stats and then some going into winter but kept an open mind. I've liked where the pattern was progressing for like 3-4 weeks now. Seeing big potential pop up on the heels of a big block in a Nino is not a crazy shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Kinda has a pd2ish look to my eyes as far as the front end thump and potential sleety dry slot is concerned. Key difference is we don't have that epic high to the north. I wasn't completely thrilled with the shift this run either. It's leaving less wiggle room IMO but u guys know more than I do. Onto the next runs. I'm not sure why people are saying this run was a step back in any way. Yes, the thermals got dicey for a panel but the overall synoptic run was fantastic. SLP track was OBX to just off of OC and stall. No tucking up the bay like the euro. The ULL pass was excellent. IMO- the euro solution comes with much greater risk than the 18z gfs' version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't like it....flirting with disaster Isn't flirting with disaster the best way we get huge storms here?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I played stats and then some going into winter but kept an open mind. I've liked where the pattern was progressing for like 3-4 weeks now. Seeing big potential pop up on the heels of a big block in a Nino is not a crazy shock.Indeed--especially from a historical perspective (which is why I'm glad you started the analogs thread because as we could be seeing, strong el ninos are either all or nothing (and never in between). Not to mention the warm Christmas's during those strong ninos that were followed by big storms later) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 In this particular setup probably tomorrow @ 12z would be the last time ens can provide meaningful details. Right now they are really locked in as it is. If 2 more ens suites look the same then ops probably show the best detail in general. Makes sense and as the hours dwindle down, our focus begins shifting towards analyzing soundings, banding, and other mesoscale features, something smoothed out ensembles don't pick up on vs the higher res OPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can see why Matt doesn't like the run. Just looking at the clown maps it has the signature of a north shift to me. Maybe not with precip but with temps. You want the low close but not too close. This isn't SNE where the colder temps allow a low to pass very close by and produce a blizzard. I hope the low doesn't tuck any more than it has. Reassuring part is that this is within the envelope of track wobbles and still produces a mega storm for the whole region. We are talking 16-20 rather than 18-25 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't like it....flirting with disaster But the euro slp in the bay just south of the Potomac is better? I'm not sure I follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the fact that the ULL deformation jackpots are in NE Maryland and PA are leaving people feel like this run is bad. In fact, it is great. I do think that the ULL being further south helps us Jackpot and those details are to be determined. Stronger HP should help in this regard I'm not sure why people are saying this run was a step back in any way. Yes, the thermals got dicey for a panel but the overall synoptic run was fantastic. SLP track was OBX to just off of OC and stall. No tucking up the bay like the euro. The ULL pass was excellent. IMO- the euro solution comes with much greater risk than the 18z gfs' version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Between these 2 panels, I'd gladly take my chances with the gfs version vs the euro. Forget the temps for a second and think sensibly as to what would most likely happen between the 2 different SLP placements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the fact that the ULL deformation jackpots are in NE Maryland and PA are leaving people feel like this run is bad. In fact, it is great. I do think that the ULL being further south helps us Jackpot and those details are to be determined. Stronger HP should help in this regard Shoot, it gives BWI 2 feet. If that's a bad run I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS has a beautiful banana high stretched from Eastern Canada flanking the western edge of the storm all the way down to Corpus Christi, TX. In eastern Canada it's a 1036 mb strength...really nice to see. Its up from 1033 last run. It just keeps getting stronger every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro blip into the mouth of the bay seems kinda weird. The GFS is definitely a preferable track. As long as we can keep it over water north of NC not sure it's a huge deal exactly how close it comes. Hefty coastal front should set up in this type of an event. We have too much time but other than that there's nothing to worry much about at this point. Unless we're debating how big our HECS will be.. which I suppose we sort of are already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 But the euro slp in the bay just south of the Potomac is better? I'm not sure I follow. The area on the euro to our SW that gets 3"+ gets dry slotted...I don't like seeing a precip maxima over York...Of course I favor the euro over the GFS...It is a better model hands down, especially for DC snowstorms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm not sure why people are saying this run was a step back in any way. Yes, the thermals got dicey for a panel but the overall synoptic run was fantastic. SLP track was OBX to just off of OC and stall. No tucking up the bay like the euro. The ULL pass was excellent. IMO- the euro solution comes with much greater risk than the 18z gfs' version. Yea I probably just need to temper my expectations a bit. North shifts always concern me 90 hrs out but this wasn't necessarily a trend and like u said it's the pressure charts that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We are still far enough out to fail if shooting for a HECS in anyone's backyard for sure. But... I think we are pretty locked in at the mid levels given what we see across modeling. Yeah subtle differences can move it just far enough north or south to cause problems. I haven't seen any worrisome synaptic features on any of todays model runs so I'm pretty damn excited. Not to say one can't appear out of nowhere though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't like it....flirting with disaster Yes and no, IMO. Per the GFS verbatim, we have a monster front end of the storm. Something like 15" before 6z. That's before any real temp concerns. Then we get touchy and the dry slot approaches. In this run we kind of get "saved" by the rather tiny wraparound later on. If we don't get this, it could really be a 16-18" snowstorm with a crusty finish. A great storm, but not historic. So it depends on what we are shooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Its up from 1033 last run. It just keeps getting stronger every run. Don't wish for a stronger high than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro blip into the mouth of the bay seems kinda weird. The GFS is definitely a preferable track. As long as we can keep it over water north of NC not sure it's a huge deal exactly how close it comes. Hefty coastal front should set up in this type of an event. We have too much time but other than that there's nothing to worry much about at this point. Unless we're debating how big our HECS will be.. which I suppose we sort of are already. I definitely don't get hung up on verbatim QPF stuff out this far in time. I do expect some mix at some point. There's almost no way around it in my yard and eastward with a storm like this. It's hard to argue the synoptic progression of the 18z gfs was nothing short of excellent. Of course having the low track 75 miles east would be the ultimate solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I definitely don't get hung up on verbatim QPF stuff out this far in time. I do expect some mix at some point. There's almost no way around it in my yard and eastward with a storm like this. It's hard to argue the synoptic progression of the 18z gfs was nothing short of excellent. Of course having the low track 75 miles east would be the ultimate solutions. I do think it would be preferable to get the full transfer like the Euro has further south. I think that's a big part of the drier spot to the SW on the GFS. The Euro already has a well developed front end thump for those areas because of it. In that sense I think you have to hope the Euro is right just because it's a more proper HECSing if nothing else, but also because generally delayed is rarely the hope for in the snowstorm game. But if those are our bounds.. it could be a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The area on the euro to our SW that gets 3"+ gets dry slotted...I don't like seeing a precip maxima over York...Of course I favor the euro over the GFS...It is a better model hands down, especially for DC snowstorms.... I see where you're coming from but I'm not really married to the gfs qfp distribution. Just looking at this panel makes you wonder why such a compact maxima near the low center and sudden drop over the 95 corridor. A 985 moving from OBX to that spot would be prolific in our area but the 6 hour panel shows light precip. There would be a more expansive comma imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Between these 2 panels, I'd gladly take my chances with the gfs version vs the euro. Forget the temps for a second and think sensibly as to what would most likely happen between the 2 different SLP placements. One thing i noticed is that the low placement is remarkably close this far in advance. Small gap to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 One thing i noticed is that the low placement is remarkably close this far in advance. Small gap to close. Major models all look nearly identical across CONUS in the mid-levels. The 500mb track is basically the same to model to model. Kinda just seeing them spit out the various options in that environment. Could shift. Till it does... enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 19 out of 20 GEFS members show at least 6" in DC.. some huge hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GEFS is the best one yet.... I counted 13 huge hits for DC. Only one member gives us nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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