mattie g Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We dont want the low any more intense as that would necessitate a 1030+ high and then when you get the 1030 that lead to other issues It's a 1031 High in Ontario.at 96, 102, and 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 2 feet FDK-DC-BWI. Upwards of 40"+ map girl and hoffman into southern PA. Lol. It is like 30" at my house. This is getting silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Pretty impressive. BWI: ~26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still a historic storm even with warm temp profiles for a bit...good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think that's right. About my surface temp comment - i think i was looking at the wrong run. freezing line is down towards calvert county on 114 and 120. But the lower accumulations on instantweathermaps is i think a sneaky warm layer w/sleet, as they have 16" and weatherbell has 25 for DCA and weatherbell counts sleet in their snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 SLP track was near perfect. A little more east would be ideal. Wobbles with the qpf max are inevitable. And we won't really know who if/when it goes down like that until afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'd be curious to see soundings around this hour. WxBell only has 6 hour panels but this is the "worst" looking panel in terms of 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 About my surface temp comment - i think i was looking at the wrong run. freezing line is down towards calvert county on 114 and 120. But the lower accumulations on instantweathermaps is i think a sneaky warm layer w/sleet, as they have 16" and weatherbell has 25 for DCA and weatherbell counts sleet in their snowmaps. Looks closer to 20 for DCA on IWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DCA gets all the main precip before it would briefly change it seems. Not sure it would even change at 111, close. This is as close as we want it tho heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol. It is like 30" at my house. This is getting silly. It's ridiculous. Somehow Baltimore-north manages to stay all snow, with 30-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure how much it matters to parse this far out, but... 114--below zero below this level Surface at 120, below zero above Yeah my surface temp comment was wrong - they are def below freezing on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Using the wxbell maps, surface temps get above freezing on the 120 panel along and east of 95, but they drop back down on the next panel. 850s are above freezing along the bay and in southern MD for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Temps are close. I can see sleet in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DCA gets all the main precip before it would briefly change it seems. Not sure it would even change at 111, close. This is as close as we want it tho heh. Obviously this level of detail at range is impossible but you can enjoy this parting deform gift for the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DCA gets all the main precip before it would briefly change it seems. Not sure it would even change at 111, close. This is as close as we want it tho heh. Not even too close except 111. 114 is safe at DCA. Per skewt on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 With a 1030 high and storm blowing up off sure, any mix issues should not last long. But with that strong onshore flow on the 850s, mixing may be an issue briefly into PA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Obviously this level of detail at range is impossible but you can enjoy this parting deform gift for the next 6 hours. deform.JPG Sig worthy. Again shows how variable the precip maximums will be - Euro had them N/W, GFS has them N/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Everything about the synaptic evolution this run is perfect. Edit: For western burbs and IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6 hour panels, but click the map on any location to see the profile. Very nice feature! http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=snod&rh=2016011818&fh=138&r=ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Philly actually flips to rain this run, and NYC looks to have some mixing issues as well. Verbatim, it looks like DC would maybe mix at 111, but even then not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At 111 in Oxon Hill the 850 temp is 0.7 and the surface is 0.2. At 114 the entire column is back below 0. But as Ian said, by then the precipitation is light. Most has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Obviously this level of detail at range is impossible but you can enjoy this parting deform gift for the next 6 hours. deform.JPG Loop of run is going into the archives. That little backside jackpot is the best part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Usually the biggest totals are right near the mix and dry slot area. We came awful close in the big ones of 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I certainly turn over and would think DC has temp issues at some level. Still for the usual snowy spots its a terrific run, Plus the dry slot not too far to our SW....I don't really like this run at all....It isn't very far off from 0.75" of mixy 33 and sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When it's big, juicy and close then mix fears have to be part of the equation. But the silver lining in that is more dynamics. I want the baro at DCA to be 30.25+ at 11:59pm on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When it's big, juicy and close then mix fears have to be part of the equation. But the silver lining in that is more dynamics. I want the baro at DCA to be 30.25+ at 11:59pm on Thursday. I like that there is a strong HP to north. Possible saving grace. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Usually the biggest totals are right near the mix and dry slot area. We came awful close in the big ones of 09-10. Some areas changed to sleet in 1996 and still got 25+ and the ULL track looks very similar to 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I like that there is a strong HP to north. Possible saving grace. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1032 in Ontario which is great and will bleed down to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm curious when we start relying on the OP runs over the ensembles? Under 84 hours which would put us at the 12z suite tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm curious when we start relying on the OP runs over the ensembles? Under 84 hours which would put us at the 12z suite tomorrow. The mets have said 72 hours in the past i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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