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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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LWX afternoon AFD getting on the bus:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THERE IS
STILL TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT PRECIPITATION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE EURO MODEL HAS THE
LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. HENCE...THIS IS ONE INDICATION OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COASTAL LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
OUTER BANKS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW.

THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL WANTS TO MAKE THE COASTAL LOW
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS
MODEL TAKES THE COASTAL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE
QUICKER...PLACING THE COASTAL LOW NEAR MARTHA`S VINEYARD BY LATER
IN THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM...COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.

ALL IN ALL...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE EURO AND GFS
MODELS...AND THE ENSEMBLE FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND IT IS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THIS WEEK ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM.
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RAH

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL

NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER

PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST

MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN

THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL

FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION

OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST

PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE

COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING

SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED

DURING THIS PERIOD.

Wrong board?

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Wxsouth from Facebook:

12540659_1205580799471973_89095704988700

Here are his comments to go along with the image:

The trends aren't good. All models are rock steady on the powerful storm that is forecast to develop in the MidSouth late Thursday, and then interact with plenty of cold air in place. The European model continues to get slightly colder each run for areas of VA, NC , SC at the surface. The overall themes of the computer modeling is in amazing agreement on this major storm's evolution but have only slight variances in the track. The details at the surface are not carved in stone yet, but this has a look of some of the Bigger Winter storms, for the areas affected.

Some of the numbers of snow totals are incredible off the models, many showing a widespread 2 foot snowstorm in a large chunk of Virginia, West Virginia,and common Foot amounts in part of North Carolina, Kentucky, and into the Northeast....snow, to ice to snow for southern VA, piedmont of NC, and a vicious IceStorm setup in some areas of overlapping regions of particularly NC, VA where snow isn't dominant. All models peg Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland as Ground Zero thanks to the slow moving storm crawling up the Coast by Saturday. What a mess. Its too early to know exact snow and ice amounts just yet. And it's possible this storm doesn't come together as forecast, but there's no denying the last few days of the trends on this one. We'll follow it through the week. For now, keep this info in your mind, and if plans are needed later on maybe think about your usual Winter Storm preparations.

I cover this major event, as well as the Wednesday minor event in the Tennessee Valley at my site in detail.

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