Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Very few misses or southern solutions. Maybe 6-8 or so. The corridor and west is ground zero on almost all other members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At h120 I count 4 extreme outliers that are well offshore. Everything else is fairly close together. Really nice agreement on L placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The members all have a high impact event for somewhere in the region. Lean toward right down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Very few misses or southern solutions. Maybe 6-8 or so. The corridor and west is ground zero on almost all other members. how many snow to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I clearly need to re-up my wxbell...CC expired and never replaced it... - Crazy nice ensemble run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 how many snow to rain? SLP/Precip member plots aren't up yet. I'll figure it out shortly. ETA: They're up and very few big mixing events. A ton of monsters. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 A good number of members that are crush jobs for our area. e29 would shut us down for a week or more. Excellent agreement on the max being west of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The colors on the mean snowfall maps on WxBell are a bit hard to read but is that a 16" snow mean at DCA? A 21" bullseye north of CHO? Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, mean snowfall for DC in the 14-16" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good amount of EPS members are pummeling the region, mean is like 14" for DCA -- I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, mean snowfall for DC in the 14-16" range. Mean precip is right around 2". Not a lot of mixed events for that kind of output. ETA: 1.8" mean precip line through DCA. And around 15" snow mean. Very excellent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I count all but 5 members being over 6" for DC with the majority of the rest being 10" or more. Some crazy numbers in there for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I count all but 5 members being over 6" for DC with the majority of the rest being 10" or more. Some crazy numbers in there for DC.Yeah there are a lot of 15" or more solutions, with at least 3-4 I can count at 2'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good video from Bernie Rayno http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snowstorm-threat-from-dc-to-nyc-and-boston?autoStart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mean precip is right around 2". Not a lot of mixed events for that kind of output. ETA: 1.8" mean precip line through DCA. And around 15" snow mean. Very excellent run. There are also quite a few 2' feet members as well... crazy pron run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I see dca at 16" for eps mean. Max area is 21" out towards warrenton. 15" mean runs along pa/md line. Mean starts to drop again south of ezf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EURO EPS MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, mean snowfall for DC in the 14-16" range. Wow. That is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Okay, so para SHOULD be out around 7pm? Am interested to see how it goes for 12Z after showing a huge difference for 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What's the mean for BWI? Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What's the mean for BWI? Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Gotta be 14-16" per map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Maue posted this on twitter so I'm assuming this is allowed to be here, if its not obviously delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LWX afternoon AFD getting on the bus: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY ANDSATURDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TOSOUTHERN TENNESSEE AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WHILE HIGHPRESSURE BUILDS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THERE ISSTILL TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT PRECIPITATION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOWWILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHTINTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFYFRIDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE EURO MODEL HAS THELOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATER IN THE DAYFRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH CAROLINACOAST. HENCE...THIS IS ONE INDICATION OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THEPOTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT ACOASTAL LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THEOUTER BANKS AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL SLOW DOWNTHE MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW.THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAYNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEASTSATURDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL WANTS TO MAKE THE COASTAL LOWNEARLY STATIONARY OFF OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WHILE THE GFSMODEL TAKES THE COASTAL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST A LITTLEQUICKER...PLACING THE COASTAL LOW NEAR MARTHA`S VINEYARD BY LATERIN THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING STORMSYSTEM...COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM...AND PLENTY OF MOISTUREFROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS APOTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THISTIME.ALL IN ALL...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE EURO AND GFSMODELS...AND THE ENSEMBLE FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THEPOTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM...BUT THERE IS STILL HIGHERUNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND IT IS APROGRESSIVE PATTERN.PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THIS WEEK ABOUT THEPOSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wxsouth from Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z NAM at hr 84 has 1009mb SLP in C MS Friday at 06z... and thats all I am going to say about the NAM ETA: tiny closed h5 low at 546 in E OK as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 RAH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED DURING THIS PERIOD. Wrong board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wrong board? Yep --- sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Cobb for Westminster 2.36" QPF, 1/22 18z - 1/24 03z, all snow What is this data mappy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the para gfs will be a crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wxsouth from Facebook: Here are his comments to go along with the image:The trends aren't good. All models are rock steady on the powerful storm that is forecast to develop in the MidSouth late Thursday, and then interact with plenty of cold air in place. The European model continues to get slightly colder each run for areas of VA, NC , SC at the surface. The overall themes of the computer modeling is in amazing agreement on this major storm's evolution but have only slight variances in the track. The details at the surface are not carved in stone yet, but this has a look of some of the Bigger Winter storms, for the areas affected. Some of the numbers of snow totals are incredible off the models, many showing a widespread 2 foot snowstorm in a large chunk of Virginia, West Virginia,and common Foot amounts in part of North Carolina, Kentucky, and into the Northeast....snow, to ice to snow for southern VA, piedmont of NC, and a vicious IceStorm setup in some areas of overlapping regions of particularly NC, VA where snow isn't dominant. All models peg Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland as Ground Zero thanks to the slow moving storm crawling up the Coast by Saturday. What a mess. Its too early to know exact snow and ice amounts just yet. And it's possible this storm doesn't come together as forecast, but there's no denying the last few days of the trends on this one. We'll follow it through the week. For now, keep this info in your mind, and if plans are needed later on maybe think about your usual Winter Storm preparations. I cover this major event, as well as the Wednesday minor event in the Tennessee Valley at my site in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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