WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models are very good at placing upper level features at this range but precip jackpots are not at all locked in at this range. Not to mention that a storm like this will have lots of mesoscale banding features in the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I just checked my lower level temps on the Euro, and there is no sign of mix or rain not even close What about above 850? I can't imagine a slp placement like that and not having temp issues east of the fall line. Gotta be a warm nose somewhere IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Does Feb. 1983 storm still appear to be top analog? I was 5 years old then and have some vague memories of it living in Fairfax, Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As some of you have noted, the EC did shift the heaviest snowfall axis farther n-nw, giving more of a climo look e-se toward the Bay and DelMarVA. The EC seems to be doing that NW-SE flip-flop between the 00-12Z runs. So...as was mentioned before...not sure it's a trend.. I live in northern AA County, and have come to grips with the fact that I could receive a <bleep> load of snow...just not likely the bullseye. And I'm okay with that -- as long as it's more than 02/2014 where I got 7.5" front end and 3.5" back end (with mix/rain in between). One thing that gives me pause -- the EC continues to show 80 kts...that's EIGHTY knots of easterly flow at 850 mb. That's an awful lot of warmth screaming in from the east. (and oh-by-the-way, those Atlantic shelf waters are anomalously warm, as we know). Hard to picture a 100% "clean" or just-snow scenario for the cities/I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What about above 850? I can't imagine a slp placement like that and not having temp issues east of the fall line. Gotta be a warm nose somewhere IMHO. Not on any of the maps for the lower levels. Looks like some breathing room. The 500mb low track is pretty perfect. DC could miss mixing. edit: err, was looking at 0z temps.. 12z is warmer but still looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What about above 850? I can't imagine a slp placement like that and not having temp issues east of the fall line. Gotta be a warm nose somewhere IMHO.With that screaming llj that's my thought as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 One thing that gives me pause -- the EC continues to show 80 kts...that's EIGHTY knots of easterly flow at 850 mb. That's an awful lot of warmth screaming in from the east. Hard to picture a 100% "clean" or just-snow scenario for the cities/I-95 east. that's definitely worth considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What about above 850? I can't imagine a slp placement like that and not having temp issues east of the fall line. Gotta be a warm nose somewhere IMHO. that's what I thought but nope I checked text output and skewts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 that's what I thought but nope I checked text output and skewts NWP might think it's a clean column but i agree with the previous posts. Common sense and memory paints a different picture. If the low stays off the va/md coasts then I would think otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ocean temps will be back to near normal by Friday so not concerned about that but a strong low right over Norfolk is going to have to have a counter balancing strong high and about 50% of the represented high placements and/or strength won't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That jet in PD2 changed me over after 17 or 18 inches. That sucked, and it wasn't forecasted....in fact it happened just after they changed the forecast to 25-30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NWP might think it's a clean column but i agree with the previous posts. Common sense and memory paints a different picture. If the low stays off the va/md coasts then I would think otherwise. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As some of you have noted, the EC did shift the heaviest snowfall axis farther n-nw, giving more of a climo look e-se toward the Bay and DelMarVA. The EC seems to be doing that NW-SE flip-flop between the 00-12Z runs. So...as was mentioned before...not sure it's a trend.. I live in northern AA County, and have come to grips with the fact that I could receive a <bleep> load of snow...just not likely the bullseye. And I'm okay with that -- as long as it's more than 02/2014 where I got 7.5" front end and 3.5" back end (with mix/rain in between). One thing that gives me pause -- the EC continues to show 80 kts...that's EIGHTY knots of easterly flow at 850 mb. That's an awful lot of warmth screaming in from the east. (and oh-by-the-way, those Atlantic shelf waters are anomalously warm, as we know). Hard to picture a 100% "clean" or just-snow scenario for the cities/I-95 east. We could easily mix for a while even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ocean temps will be back to near normal by Friday so not concerned about that but a strong low right over Norfolk is going to have to have a counter balancing strong high and about 50% of the represented high placements and/or strength won't do it You do realize models take all these factors into account and apply advanced physics to get a result? Idk why you think your observations and theories trump that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You do realize models take all these factors into account and apply advanced physics to get a result? Idk why you think your observations and theories trump that.iI think so based on outcome experiences and Bob C. Made the same observation because we are good observers with good memories. Go drop a hissy on him if you wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro Ensembles out to 54...will be in range in 5 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6UT GFS for BWI Snow begins Friday morning at 9 AM and ends Saturday afternoon at 1 PM. Temperatures range from 26 to 29 degrees 1000-500 hPa thicknesses peak at 541 and 850 hPa T peak at -2 C late Friday evening. Winds strengthen throughout Friday and approach blizzard levels (34 mph late Friday evening) . Wind direction E to NE to N Total precipitation 2.07". 12 UT GFS for BWI Snow begins Friday morning at 10 AM and ends Saturday evening at 9 PM with a few lulls Temperatures range from 29-31 1000-500 hPa thicknesses peak at 541 (are 540-541 for 9 hr period). 850 T peaks at -3. Winds strengthen throughout Friday and reach 40 mph sustained early Sunday morning (or is that knots) Total precipitation 2.56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ocean temps will be back to near normal by Friday so not concerned about that but a strong low right over Norfolk is going to have to have a counter balancing strong high and about 50% of the represented high placements and/or strength won't do it The HP has been trending stronger with just about every model run over the past couple of days. It is sliding into just about the perfect position for us as well. I dont see that being a problem at this point. I dont know if anybody mentioned the NAVGEM. But it tracks right over Delmarva as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS mean appears to be a pummeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 mixing is always a possibility in my location regardless of what models show. Models often miss thin layer of maritime intrusion in dynamic coastal events. Just gotta understand your location and the accept the mix possibility will be there with strong easterlies - regardless if ocean temp. 1996 we mixed but got 24" - so mixing definitely wasnt the story line. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 992 off the mouth of the bay as we swim in banding. Quality track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS mean appears to be a pummeling. so close to the OP...maybe a tad outside...such crazy agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 To drive home how extreme some of these verbatim model solutions are: DCA has never reached a 50 mph gust *during* the snowfall for any KU-type event, not even during the Blizzard of '93, or 2/9-10/10, or Blizzard of '66. To contrast, Logan and LaGuardia airports have gotten gusts 70-90 mph in their major blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You do realize models take all these factors into account and apply advanced physics to get a result? Idk why you think your observations and theories trump that. i I think so based on outcome experiences and Bob C. Made the same observation because we are good observers with good memories. Go drop a hissy on him if you wish Very true.. People forget that Feb. 2003 changed to sleet -- which had not been forecast -- that likely cost Baltimore and DC an extra 6 to 10 inches of snow. I swear the snow during Feb. 5/6 2010 in NW DC was mixed with rain for about two hours starting about 9:30 p.m. on that Friday night, which kept it from piling up as much as it could have. Later that week, Feb. 10 blizzard also went snow to sleet back to snow, which I don't think was forecast either. Just throwing this out cause it's an obvious concern for anyone who's lived in DC long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 mixing is always a possibility in my location regardless of what models show. Models often miss thin layer of maritime intrusion in dynamic coastal events. Just gotta understand your location and the accept the mix possibility will be there with strong easterlies - regardless if ocean temp. 1996 we mixed but got 24" - so mixing definitely wasnt the story line. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We mixed in 93, 96, 03. No mix in 87 ( I think), 00, 09, 10. Ironically 96 and 03 are probably my favorites so yea I don't think a period of mixing makes or breaks a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS mean at 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 so close to the OP...maybe a tad outside...such crazy agreement Absolute sick ens run. Perfect track for the cities. Getting close to unanimous ens agreement with a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS is a beauty as Ian said. Closes off the 500 low and the MSLP track takes it over OBX and slowly crawls it NNE from there. 992 just offshore the VA portion of the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Pretty tightly clustered into the Carolinas. If anything a NW lean to low placement compared to mean circle after. Some too far in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Ensemble mean drops 20" in western Loudoun.....like 1.5" of QPF in DC....so wet for a mean at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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