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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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So when can we start considering this storm a "lock". Does Wednesday morning seem to be OK?

Possibly, but even then a lock is not really the right way to say it in my mind.

 

eta: every 24 hours will be crucial up to last flake

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Not sure why the "It can stop now" was deleted but was going to respond:

 

500mb actually dipped a bit south this run but the evolution has trended more toward the top end. The bullseye precip didn't shift north/south as much as the northern shield expanded.

Because our friendly moderator has some sort of personal grudge against me. 

 

Thanks for your thoughts.. interesting regarding the expansion considering the High to the north appears a bit stronger. Must be some strong advection.. 

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Because our friendly moderator has some sort of personal grudge against me. 

 

Thanks for your thoughts.. interesting regarding the expansion considering the High to the north appears a bit stronger. Must be some strong advection.. 

There are 6 Mods now including the black ops ones. 

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Because our friendly moderator has some sort of personal grudge against me. 

 

Thanks for your thoughts.. interesting regarding the expansion considering the High to the north appears a bit stronger. Must be some strong advection.. 

I think the precip max has been more or less locked into a certain N lat (s PA) to S lat (s central VA) for many consecutive runs now. Getting to point there would have to be some major model judgment error not to see a big EC event. I think at this point everything still has to favor N&W a bit given general climo plus Nino climo. But no real clue where that heaviest max occurs.. that's going to do with he specific evolution of the 500 low. Models have certainly been moving more into the camp that the 500mb low is going to want to beastmode someone.

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Would that translate to slightly higher totals than the new 12z EURO showed?

we're all snow, but the Euro just drops more qpf out west of us due to the placement of the upper level features

don't sweat those details at this point

we're getting a lot of snow, whether we jackpot? who knows and who cares at this point

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Concerning posting the Eurowx snow maps, I e-mailed them last year about posting the maps and they said although they would prefer it not be done they didn't feel it was a technical violation of their agreement.  Their maps use euro data but are based on their own algorithms.  Most of their other maps and definitely the data cannot be copied to the forums.

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