Casualbrain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Am I right that Roanoke looks like 25" snow --- 2.5" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 they've been taken down since then. Just saying what I have been told That's fine. Can you leave them up long enough for us to copy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z JMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Fine details with SLP placement are awful tricky with the h5 progression. Just a touch less amped and the cities jack. More amped and big mixing issues. My guess is the mouth of the bay is probably the western edge of the envelope.This run looked like it could be mixey at the peak for many places east of IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wind speeds look insane aloft...https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/689154506777493505/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Great run, but it's still 100+ hours out. Usually how this works is the models show a huge storm at about 5 days out. Then they start suppressing everything and the heaviest snow totals move further and further south, causing weenies to have bipolar mood swings. Then, 48 hours before the event, they shift things back north again - back to the original solution it had a few days prior, and the weenies rejoice. Onset of precip is 100 hours in DC and <100 hours for those near CHO. We have pretty significant agreement between the models for at least a warning-level criteria event. Wise to hold off on the 'historic' snowstorm solutions until a bit closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is it possible to post a snapshot of snowfall totals from EuroWX? just pick some of the main cities and tell us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Snow sleet along the bay with winds gusting to 60 will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This run looked like it could be mixey at the peak for many places east of IAD. 850's are safe on the panels. I'm sure with the ground zero SLP center in the bay just south of the Potomac would send some warm layers in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 op EURO moves the Low to ne nc -- se thid of VA and eastern NC set slots into delmarva into s NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Per wxbell maps.. 19" BWI 21 DCA 32 Winchester 21 Westminster 30 CHO?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 850's are safe on the panels. I'm sure with the ground zero SLP center in the bay just south of the Potomac would send some warm layers in. when a particular provider updates with the 12Z info, I will advise of what the skewts show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Am I right that Roanoke looks like 25" snow --- 2.5" QPF? Just shy of 30" for storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro just took State College from 0.06" at 0z to 1.1" at 12z. Not as rock solid as thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 just pick some of the main cities and tell us WINCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro just took State College from 0.06" at 0z to 1.1" at 12z. Not as rock solid as thought. the 12z and 0z runs have been going back n forth like that for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Onset of precip is 100 hours in DC and <100 hours for those near CHO. We have pretty significant agreement between the models for at least a warning-level criteria event. Wise to hold off on the 'historic' snowstorm solutions until a bit closer in. Agreed, just trying to temper expectations since it's still several days away. I think the model agreement provides high confidence that's something is coming our way, but the 'bullseye' for the storm will undoubtedly wobble and shift around a bit over the next few days. Just hoping people won't freak out over every single wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Per wxbell maps.. 19" BWI 21 DCA 32 Winchester 21 Westminster 30 CHO?? EZF? RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WINCHESTERAround 33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro just took State College from 0.06" at 0z to 1.1" at 12z. Not as rock solid as thought. At least it moved the right direction... hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have never seen those qpf numbers modeled on the Euro before. Not even in 2010. This would be the definition of crippling for VA. I wish it was 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EZF? RIC? 25 for EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 so lets see the western part of my county gets 16-18" I get 7 -8" almost makes me believe in god 12zopeurosnow.jpg Almost classic how the rain/snow line basically follows I-95 from RDU to EZF. Personally, I would be more concerned about seeing a post WAA dry slot here regardless if it is depicted by the models or not. What the graphic does not indicate is if the accumulated snow to the east is exclusively from WAA as the event is winding up or from wrap around as the coastal low is pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DT, I deleted your euro snow map. We're trying to be more rigorous in the letter of the law for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So are we or aren't we in the Euro's wheelhouse? I say yes, but wtf do I know. Yes, we are. We're within 100 hours of the storm. GFS/Euro/UKMET/JMA/GGEM all agree on a significant snowstorm here - finer details like exact amounts, banding, mix line, etc will be worked out probably beginning tomorrow/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 DT, I deleted your euro snow map. We're trying to be more rigorous in the letter of the law for them I thought EuroWx maps are allowed just not WxBell?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I thought EuroWx maps are allowed just not WxBell?. both are verboten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This setup makes sense though for VA WV and PA now. This is what I was getting at last night about the dynamics and the exploding storm you would expect qpf like that on the west side. The GFS is still not accurately depicting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I hope you are not using the 15 to 1 ratio crap they have Per wxbell maps..19" BWI21 DCA32 Winchester21 Westminster30 CHO?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure why the "It can stop now" was deleted but was going to respond: 500mb actually dipped a bit south this run but the evolution has trended more toward the top end. The bullseye precip didn't shift north/south as much as the northern shield expanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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