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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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Fine details with SLP placement are awful tricky with the h5 progression. Just a touch less amped and the cities jack. More amped and big mixing issues. My guess is the mouth of the bay is probably the western edge of the envelope.

This run looked like it could be mixey at the peak for many places east of IAD.
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Great run, but it's still 100+ hours out.  Usually how this works is the models show a huge storm at about 5 days out.  Then they start suppressing everything and the heaviest snow totals move further and further south, causing weenies to have bipolar mood swings.  Then, 48 hours before the event, they shift things back north again - back to the original solution it had a few days prior, and the weenies rejoice.

 

Onset of precip is 100 hours in DC and <100 hours for those near CHO.  We have pretty significant agreement between the models for at least a warning-level criteria event.  Wise to hold off on the 'historic' snowstorm solutions until a bit closer in.

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Onset of precip is 100 hours in DC and <100 hours for those near CHO.  We have pretty significant agreement between the models for at least a warning-level criteria event.  Wise to hold off on the 'historic' snowstorm solutions until a bit closer in.

Agreed, just trying to temper expectations since it's still several days away.  I think the model agreement provides high confidence that's something is coming our way, but the 'bullseye' for the storm will undoubtedly wobble and shift around a bit over the next few days.  Just hoping  people won't freak out over every single wobble.

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   so  lets  see  the western part of my county    gets 16-18"

I get 7 -8"

 

 almost makes me   believe  in god

 

 

 

attachicon.gif12zopeurosnow.jpg

Almost classic how the rain/snow line basically follows I-95 from RDU to EZF.  Personally, I would be more concerned about seeing a post WAA dry slot here regardless if it is depicted by the models or not.  What the graphic does not indicate is if the accumulated snow to the east is exclusively from WAA as the event is winding up or from wrap around as the coastal low is pulling away.

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So are we or aren't we in the Euro's wheelhouse? I say yes, but wtf do I know.

 

Yes, we are.  We're within 100 hours of the storm.  GFS/Euro/UKMET/JMA/GGEM all agree on a significant snowstorm here - finer details like exact amounts, banding, mix line, etc will be worked out probably beginning tomorrow/Wednesday.  

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Not sure why the "It can stop now" was deleted but was going to respond:

 

500mb actually dipped a bit south this run but the evolution has trended more toward the top end. The bullseye precip didn't shift north/south as much as the northern shield expanded.

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