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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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Positioning is near perfect from GFS/Euro/UKIE, maybe a tad east and you can talk about near 2' amounts for the metro's. Almost time to get serious. Let's see what EPS says later. Gusts to 75knots for the mouth of the Chessy, 55-60 knots near the metro's. That is just a massacre cement dumping.

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Great run, but it's still 100+ hours out.  Usually how this works is the models show a huge storm at about 5 days out.  Then they start suppressing everything and the heaviest snow totals move further and further south, causing weenies to have bipolar mood swings.  Then, 48 hours before the event, they shift things back north again - back to the original solution it had a few days prior, and the weenies rejoice.

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Great run, but it's still 100+ hours out.  Usually how this works is the models show a huge storm at about 5 days out.  Then they start suppressing everything and the heaviest snow totals move further and further south, causing weenies to have bipolar mood swings.  Then, 48 hours before the event, they shift things back north again - back to the original solution it had a few days prior, and the weenies rejoice.

 

We are within 100 hours.

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Fine details with SLP placement are awful tricky with the h5 progression. Just a touch less amped and the cities jack. More amped and big mixing issues. My guess is the mouth of the bay is probably the western edge of the envelope. 

 

 

Any mixing on this one? I noticed surface was right around freezing at the usual 95 boundary.

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