Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sorry if this is way off topic, but in the OP, there is mention of this being a "classic Archimbault event". Can someone here point me to more info or an explanation? My Google skills are failing me. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk An Archambault event is one that happens as we transition into or out of a -NAO....Typically the best events happen as the block breaks down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Matt will remember better than me, but one of the Feb 2010 storms locked in 6 days in advance and never really wavered. the feb 5-6 2010 storm locked in over a week out. I remember the gfs caught on and showed a perfect track about 8 days out but some were upset that it had warm surface temps. I remember saying to stop worrying about exact surface temps in a day 8 gfs run. It was a little south of the end result from day 5 to about 72 hours. Not by much though but there were a few runs that had the sharp cutoff in northern maryland that ended up in central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When I was in CT, I remember the euro being locked about 5 days out for GB '13, but I can't remember if the other models were on board as quickly and stuck with it. As you know, it is one thing to have the models jump on, it is another thing to keep them there. I lived in CT as well and I could remember several storms between 2009-2013, especially 2009 which was insane up there. that actually had superb agreement amongst one another and indeed, the qpf output became quite phenomenal as the storm came within the 48 hour range to impact. If this sets up how its looking it is going to be quite a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I certainly can't remember having this many models showing a storm at this magnitude this far out. It certainly ups my confidence. If this storm happens it's a pretty huge win for modeling IMO. I don't know if we've ever had a threat stay relatively consistent from so far out. It's true there is usually more agreement on the big ones from range but we're just now entering that range today or so in the old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I lived in CT as well and I could remember several storms between 2009-2013, especially 2009 which was insane up there. that actually had superb agreement amongst one another and indeed, the qpf output became quite phenomenal as the storm came within the 48 hour range to impact. If this sets up how its looking it is going to be quite a show.Lucky man. CT had some incredible snow that winter. That was the winter that Kevin "sculpted" the snow he shoveled from his driveway. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NCEP Operational Status Message Mon Jan 18 03:00:44 2016 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 180300 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0259Z MON JAN 18 2016 THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. 00Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP... 70414/SYA - PART B IS MISSING 78016/BDA - PART B MISSING FOR NAM...IN FOR GFS 76458/MZT - 10158 76692/HYY - 10158 HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If this storm happens it's a pretty huge win for modeling IMO. I don't know if we've ever had a threat stay relatively consistent from so far out. It's true there is usually more agreement on the big ones from range but we're just now entering that range today or so in the old days. I think Dec 2009 and Feb 5-6 2010 were pretty well modeled at ~1 week. IF this storm happens, we had clues as early as Day 10-12, then the models all lost it a couple days ago and now it's back as of Friday (1 week out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Posted 3 or 4 days ago that keep firing multiple waves then one synchronizes with the cold air Not an abundance of cold air but enough thst the perfect track is not required but a good-very good one is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think Dec 2009 and Feb 5-6 2010 were pretty well modeled at ~1 week. IF this storm happens, we had clues as early as Day 10-12, then the models all lost it a couple days ago and now it's back as of Friday (1 week out). JMA had the 12/09 event first at 6 days (could have been 5). 2/10, week sounds about right, but it looked initially as foot event. The two feet numbers didn't start showing up until 3 days or less if memory serves, and it often has failed lately so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If we're in the 25-28 range here in immediate DC metro, we won't have to worry about sun angle or day time stickage....Even if we creep toward 31-32, moderate snow will stick fine even to primary roads in late January...I don't see a 2/5/10 scenario where we burn QPF at 34-35...We should be freezing or below at onset.... Even just 1" sets up better accumulation if temps are marginal We really do not have any sun angle yet so as cold as 25-28 not needed as 29/30 would work I think it all comes down to the Baro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where did you guys get access to the euro para? It's not out on sv or ex bell...That description sounded exactly like last nights 0z para euro so perhaps they were looking at the old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think Dec 2009 and Feb 5-6 2010 were pretty well modeled at ~1 week. IF this storm happens, we had clues as early as Day 10-12, then the models all lost it a couple days ago and now it's back as of Friday (1 week out). Yeah that may be true. I don't recall fully but it seems it was in the day 5-6 window that things really went into overdrive (perhaps about as now if it ends up holding). Blocking increases confidence and modeling ability more often than not. The really fast jet may counteract that but the ridge building over the western CONUS to the west of the wave should generally take care of that if it's all right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-18" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks to TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads. 2.1" QPF for DC. ETA: closes off 500 low but tracks it north of EPS in central/southern VA. Better solution would be tracking that a bit more south like the EPS. I believe your looking at the 00z Para Euro from last night.. 12z Para hasn't updated on WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 By my count earlier today, the op GFS had a signal for at least 9 consecutive runs. Ens seemed to sniff out a signal from longer range, as one would hopeI'm pretty sure that the Euro was last to the 12/09 party. It kept spitting out <1" qpf until Thursday's runs. I mean it had the storm, but qpf was way too light vs. other modeling, which was troubling at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What is the role of the ridge to the west. Is it as simple as forcing the s/w dive and not cut?I believe it's a case of allowing the shortwave to deepen rather than shear out. Also, deepen farther south rather than to our west.(ETA: of course, depends also on how far east or west the ridge is too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-18" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks to TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads. 2.1" QPF for DC. ETA: closes off 500 low but tracks it north of EPS in central/southern VA. Better solution would be tracking that a bit more south like the EPS. Sorry, this was the 00z run last night. WxBell listed 12z at one point but nothing was populating...I refreshed, it populated, but it was back to 00z. Thanks for catching that PSUhoffman and Snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12/09 definitely does not belong on the list of 5-day-out triumphs for modeling. The dream-potential runs out in the LR were met with multiple whiff/progessive runs in the MR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 First wave is further south on the 00z. By a little.. Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Through 81 hours the trough is bit more positively tilted. compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All things considered comparing the 81 HR GFS to the 12z EURO @ same time period thye look fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 84 hour GFS to me looks like it is not digging as much as 18Z. Has a closed contour over texas panhandle. Not sure how this will translate here good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z GFS at 96 has 1008mb SLP in N LA/S AR 102 -- 1006mb SLP in NE MS 105 -- 1004mb SLP in NW AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That troff just goes nuts over the MS valley no matter what. Flatter than 18z but amplifying fast at 96hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0Z Monday op GFS thru 96 hrs has closed 500 Low over ne TX- Not over MISSOURI or OH like 12z GFS -- HIUGE shift south very good news for those wanting the last several european model runs / EPS to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This looks good to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like transfer is getting ready to go at 114... 1002mb SLP in SE TN/N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Phasing seems to be happening a bit farther W this run, This might end up like closing off over W NC or something strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Snow in DC at 114 ETA: From the Front-end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Phasing seems to be happening a bit farther W this run, This might end up like closing off over W NC or something strange It looks pretty solid/consistent so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Heavy snow into DC at 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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