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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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Sorry if this is way off topic, but in the OP, there is mention of this being a "classic Archimbault event". Can someone here point me to more info or an explanation? My Google skills are failing me.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

An Archambault event is one that happens as we transition into or out of a -NAO....Typically the best events happen as the block breaks down....

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Matt will remember better than me, but one of the Feb 2010 storms locked in 6 days in advance and never really wavered.

the feb 5-6 2010 storm locked in over a week out. I remember the gfs caught on and showed a perfect track about 8 days out but some were upset that it had warm surface temps. I remember saying to stop worrying about exact surface temps in a day 8 gfs run. It was a little south of the end result from day 5 to about 72 hours. Not by much though but there were a few runs that had the sharp cutoff in northern maryland that ended up in central pa.
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When I was in CT, I remember the euro being locked about 5 days out for GB '13, but I can't remember if the other models were on board as quickly and stuck with it. As you know, it is one thing to have the models jump on, it is another thing to keep them there.

I lived in CT as well and I could remember several storms between 2009-2013, especially 2009 which was insane up there. that actually had superb agreement amongst one another and indeed, the qpf output became quite phenomenal as the storm came within the 48 hour range to impact. If this sets up how its looking it is going to be quite a show.

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I certainly can't remember having this many models showing a storm at this magnitude this far out. It certainly ups my confidence.

If this storm happens it's a pretty huge win for modeling IMO. I don't know if we've ever had a threat stay relatively consistent from so far out. It's true there is usually more agreement on the big ones from range but we're just now entering that range today or so in the old days.

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I lived in CT as well and I could remember several storms between 2009-2013, especially 2009 which was insane up there. that actually had superb agreement amongst one another and indeed, the qpf output became quite phenomenal as the storm came within the 48 hour range to impact. If this sets up how its looking it is going to be quite a show.

Lucky man. CT had some incredible snow that winter. That was the winter that Kevin "sculpted" the snow he shoveled from his driveway. Lol
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NCEP Operational Status Message

Mon Jan 18 03:00:44 2016 GMT
 
NOUS42 KWNO 180300
ADMNFD
 
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0259Z MON JAN 18 2016
 
THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.
 
00Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP...
70414/SYA - PART B IS MISSING
78016/BDA - PART B MISSING FOR NAM...IN FOR GFS
76458/MZT - 10158
76692/HYY - 10158
 
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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If this storm happens it's a pretty huge win for modeling IMO. I don't know if we've ever had a threat stay relatively consistent from so far out. It's true there is usually more agreement on the big ones from range but we're just now entering that range today or so in the old days.

I think Dec 2009 and Feb 5-6 2010 were pretty well modeled at ~1 week. 

 

IF this storm happens, we had clues as early as Day 10-12, then the models all lost it a couple days ago and now it's back as of Friday (1 week out). 

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I think Dec 2009 and Feb 5-6 2010 were pretty well modeled at ~1 week.

IF this storm happens, we had clues as early as Day 10-12, then the models all lost it a couple days ago and now it's back as of Friday (1 week out).

JMA had the 12/09 event first at 6 days (could have been 5). 2/10, week sounds about right, but it looked initially as foot event. The two feet numbers didn't start showing up until 3 days or less if memory serves, and it often has failed lately so..
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If we're in the 25-28 range here in immediate DC metro, we won't have to worry about sun angle or day time stickage....Even if we creep toward 31-32, moderate snow will stick fine even to primary roads in late January...I don't see a 2/5/10 scenario where we burn QPF at 34-35...We should be freezing or below at onset....

Even just 1" sets up better accumulation if temps are marginal

We really do not have any sun angle yet so as cold as 25-28 not needed as 29/30 would work

I think it all comes down to the Baro

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I think Dec 2009 and Feb 5-6 2010 were pretty well modeled at ~1 week. 

 

IF this storm happens, we had clues as early as Day 10-12, then the models all lost it a couple days ago and now it's back as of Friday (1 week out). 

Yeah that may be true. I don't recall fully but it seems it was in the day 5-6 window that things really went into overdrive (perhaps about as now if it ends up holding).

 

Blocking increases confidence and modeling ability more often than not. The really fast jet may counteract that but the ridge building over the western CONUS to the west of the wave should generally take care of that if it's all right.

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12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-18" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks to TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads.

2.1" QPF for DC.

ETA: closes off 500 low but tracks it north of EPS in central/southern VA. Better solution would be tracking that a bit more south like the EPS.

I believe your looking at the 00z Para Euro from last night.. 12z Para hasn't updated on WxBell.

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By my count earlier today, the op GFS had a signal for at least 9 consecutive runs. Ens seemed to sniff out a signal from longer range, as one would hope

I'm pretty sure that the Euro was last to the 12/09 party. It kept spitting out <1" qpf until Thursday's runs. I mean it had the storm, but qpf was way too light vs. other modeling, which was troubling at the time.
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12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-18" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks to TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads.

2.1" QPF for DC.

ETA: closes off 500 low but tracks it north of EPS in central/southern VA. Better solution would be tracking that a bit more south like the EPS.

 

Sorry, this was the 00z run last night.  WxBell listed 12z at one point but nothing was populating...I refreshed, it populated, but it was back to 00z.  Thanks for catching that PSUhoffman and Snowman.

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0Z Monday op GFS  thru 96 hrs has   closed 500 Low over ne TX- Not over  MISSOURI   or  OH like 12z GFS --  HIUGE  shift south

 

    very good news for those wanting the    last several european model runs / EPS  to verify 

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