Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't remember. Was there any change in the last 2 EURO op runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Why is a 0z para Euro run coming out at 12z? It comes out like 6 hours after the regular but it wasn't populating on SV or Wxbell so nobody saw it until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't remember. Was there any change in the last 2 EURO op runs? Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't remember. Was there any change in the last 2 EURO op runs? I think it may have shifted south a bit, at least in terms of the snowfall maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah. I dont have access to it. Did it miss the phase all together? Not really. It's simply se of the euro op. Low tracks through GA then ENE off of OBX and continues ENE. Not as amped @ h5 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Quite concerned about the para and how the euro op will respond. Wonder what feature it took to suppress everything? Late phase? well if the NWS doesn't have access to it, therefore you don't use it, why should it matter? I mean are you willing to throw out all the NCEP stuff that's already been out showing 1.5-2+ qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't remember. Was there any change in the last 2 EURO op runs? 00z Euro OP shifted SE from yesterday's 12z run but the EPS have been in pretty much lockstep for a moderate to significant MA snowstorm. Not too many 00z EPS members are whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't remember. Was there any change in the last 2 EURO op runs? Yes, last run moved the L significantly SE than the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not really. It's simply se of the euro op. Low tracks through GA then ENE off of OBX and continues ENE. Not as amped @ h5 either. Thanks Bob. I guess anything is still on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is the next version of the best model in the world, which has undergone development and testing to get to this point. It has looked very good in recent weeks. No one is saying that all other guidance should simply be tossed, but it's a reminder that this being an historic storm for our area is not yet a lead-pipe lock. well if the NWS doesn't have access to it, therefore you don't use it, why should it matter? I mean are you willing to throw out all the NCEP stuff that's already been out showing 1.5-2+ qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is the next version of the best model in the world, which has undergone development and testing to get to this point. It has looked very good in recent weeks. No one is saying that all other guidance should simply be tossed, but it's a reminder that this being an historic storm for our area is not yet a lead-pipe lock. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47652-meteorological-super-bowl-during-afc-championship-123-124/?p=3872248 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Cobb for Westminster 2.36" QPF, 1/22 18z - 1/24 03z, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47652-meteorological-super-bowl-during-afc-championship-123-124/?p=3872248 Hopefully this is one time it did not connect! =) But seeing as it has been doing BETTER than the OP, it should give us all pause! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Interesting CMC ensemble mean....hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I really think 00z PARA Euro will be wrong, 12z NAVGEM was also amped like UKMET and GGEM, actually NAVGEM takes it over SBY. I'm more confident in seeing rain mix in for the cities than seeing less than 0.5" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro coming in a touch slower and more amped with the vort. Closed contour over KS @ hr66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47652-meteorological-super-bowl-during-afc-championship-123-124/?p=3872248 Huh? That has nothing to do with the quality of the package. These pre-implementation runs are typically fit into the holes on the operational or even backup supercomputers, which is why their products are delayed relative to the ops. In other words, their data feed is unreliable. Their upgrade is well vetted and scoring quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hr 72: ETA - ninja'd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Day 3 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro 1012 slp over Dallas at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro coming in a touch slower and more amped with the vort. Closed contour over KS @ hr66. So that right there should stop this "miss" talk Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So that right there should stop this "miss" talk Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk By 84 the trough is sharper. Looks like it will go neutral right over the MS river. Similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Day 4 maps: 5H, slp, 850RH and 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 h5 closes off @ 90 over MO. SLP north of 0z. It's over the AL/MS/TN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 1033 HP this run. Getting stronger every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Snowing in DC at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I take it that's a good thing? Yes. That helps anchor the cold air and prevent the storm from running very far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Low jumps from TN to S GA @ 102. Trough is neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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