January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter

[nj2va]

12z GEFS closes off the 500 low again.  Great to see on the mean.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ryan Maue says euro hires parallel is "no storm".

That's certainly noteworthy. Hasn't it supposedly been scoring well?

[AlaskaETC]

Ensembles have some real crush jobs in them. A few ugly members

It's better than last night...more agreement

[Windman18]

Heh, panels are loaded. He's right. It's a south va/n nc special. 2" at DCA.

That's also what the para gfs showed yesterday and is now showing 3 ft. I bet it comes north.

[DTWXRISK]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NinjaWarrior2]

Honestly I was looking at the SV Snowfall Mean and it was way down from 6z that's why I panicked. Better than 0z for metro's and west, but shows nearly nothing east of US 301/South of Route 50.

[clskinsfan]

That's certainly noteworthy. Hasn't it supposedly been scoring well?

 

Yes. That is concerning for sure. I believe it has scored the best of any model recently.

[yoda]

LWX seems to be getting on board per their HWO and new 4-7 day winter storm threat/oulook

[nj2va]

That's certainly noteworthy. Hasn't it supposedly been scoring well?

 

Yep, scoring slightly better than the OP Euro.  The Parallel EPS isn't out yet so I'd be interested to see what that shows.  

[DTWXRISK]

NOTICE  THE   dry slot  on all of these  ?

 

12z GFS Cobb Data:

 

DCA:

160122/1500Z 99 10009KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 102 08010KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 105 06018KT 29.7F SNOW 9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.173 10:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 108 05024KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.267 11:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 111 02020KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.602 10:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 114 05035KT 31.2F SNOW 4:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175 9:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.38 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 117 03025KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 9:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0|100
160123/1200Z 120 36026KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240 9:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.77 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 123 36028KT 32.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156 8:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.93 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 126 36025KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 8:1| 15.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.01 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 129 34021KT 28.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 8:1| 15.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.02 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 132 34019KT 27.6F SNOW 21:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 16.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.09 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 135 33016KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 9:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.15 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160122/1500Z 99 10006KT 28.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 102 08007KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 105 07010KT 27.8F SNOW 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178 10:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 108 06014KT 26.1F SNOW 10:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.278 10:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 111 03012KT 27.6F SNOW 12:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.564 11:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 114 04008KT 29.2F SNOW 4:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 10:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 117 01012KT 28.1F SNOW 8:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.300 10:1| 16.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 120 35016KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.220 10:1| 18.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.86 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 123 35014KT 29.0F SNOW 9:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274 10:1| 20.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.14 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 126 35014KT 29.6F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123 10:1| 21.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.26 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 129 34013KT 28.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 22.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.28 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 132 34012KT 26.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 22.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.31 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 135 33011KT 25.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 10:1| 22.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.33 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

160122/1500Z 99 12005KT 27.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 102 08007KT 27.0F SNOW 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 105 07008KT 25.8F SNOW 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243 10:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 108 05010KT 24.7F SNOW 10:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.292 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 111 04009KT 25.1F SNOW 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.379 10:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 114 03005KT 27.2F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 117 36010KT 27.6F SNOW 20:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.370 12:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.52 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 120 36013KT 27.9F SNOW 20:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.295 14:1| 24.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.81 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 123 36013KT 27.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 14:1| 25.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.90 100| 0| 0

160123/1800Z 126 35011KT 27.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 14:1| 27.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.98 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 129 34011KT 27.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 13:1| 27.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 132 33010KT 25.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 27.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03 100| 0| 0

[usedtobe]

It's another great run...

 

gefslows.JPG

Bob, where'd you find that.  WXBELL? I've been looking for it and never located it.  I know where to get the euro but not the GEFS,

[Bob Chill]

Bob, where'd you find that.  WXBELL? I've been looking for it and never located it.  I know where to get the euro but not the GEFS,

 

No prob. Wxbell's weird nav and labeling strikes again. It's the topical low location link

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/ygefs_tropical.php

[DTWXRISK]

   yeah its  there  LEFT HAD  side of their model  page 

 

Bob, where'd you find that.  WXBELL? I've been looking for it and never located it.  I know where to get the euro but not the GEFS,

[Ian]

I'm still not totally in love with the higher latitudes. The CONUS setup is pretty ideal. Crossing from neg to plus does work historically or just rising in general but the look is off from most of our high end events. That rocking vortex over or just n of Hudson Bay at game time in particular is a weird feature and there's not as much main region blocking as an average would suggest. tho that's not critical. The 50/50 is not necessarily perfect either.

[nj2va]

Either the EURO is going to show its King status or totally fail with this storm.

 

Maybe just a blip.  Hopefully the 12z Euro OP holds but you can't discount the Euro-P solution.  I'd lean against it at this point given current guidance of other models, Euro OP, and EPS.

[DTWXRISK]

Another way of looking at it is to see the individual snow forecast from the 51 European and ensemble  members.  This image shows the European ensemble for Richmond Virginia.   The   ensemble     MEAN for Richmond is around 8 inches but of the 51 different individual members...  18  of  51  show  snowfall amounts at or  over 10inches.

 

If we take a look at Washington, DC Dulles Airport  the   European model  ensemble   mean is  12" but 26 of the 51 individual members shows snow amounts over 12 inches.


 

In the Virginia Piedmont Lynchburg  the  ensemble  mean is 10"  but  23  of the 51  individual members shows snow amounts over 12 inches

 

In Roanoke Virginia the ensemble mean is 11" but  22  of the 51  individual members shows snow amounts over 12 inches 

 

However as you go further north of Philadelphia the difference between the ensemble  mean and the actual operational run increases significantly.  For example and Northern New Jersey Teterboro  Airport near New York City the operational run shows snow mounts of almost 20 inches but the  ensemble   mean is  showing  9" and only  18 of 51 members show snow amounts over 12 inches

 

This   implies that   for areas north of Philly  the risk  for seeing a significant letdown in the snowfall amounts is fairly high.  That may change as we get closer to the event.

[yoda]

Bob and Wes, Control run of the GEFS is 990mb SLP over HSE at hr 120

[mitchnick]

I'm still not totally in love with the higher latitudes. The CONUS setup is pretty ideal. Crossing from neg to plus does work historically or just rising in general but the look is off from most of our high end events. That rocking vortex over or just n of Hudson Bay at game time in particular is a weird feature and there's not as much main region blocking as an average would suggest. tho that's not critical. The 50/50 is not necessarily perfect either.

so what's your call

[Ian]

so what's your call

Eh, got me. I'd probably have to at least lean below HECS imby for now. It fits in a lot of ways but it doesn't in a number as well.

[yoda]

total panic if the euro follows the para especially as we get within striking distance. lets hope it was a blip. I dont want any euro products against u s

 

I wouldnt be too concerned if the EURO run at 12z is a lil suppressed... all other major models look decent.... btw, where is the JMA?

[winterymix]

NCEP puts the low @ Salisbury.  I'd guess you'd want to be 75 miles west to avoid any mixing.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Gfs op and gefs at 108

[yuki neko]

Pretty good agreement no?

Gfs op and gefs at 108

[B-Paq]

Pretty good agreement no?

Ensembles look a bit further south and east to my eye.  Might help avoid mixing problems in some places if it ends up down there.

[clskinsfan]

12" of snow in 6 hours out here. wow.

 

Yeah. 7.6 in 3 hours. Kinda crazy.

[MDstorm]

Yeah, just checked.  00z Euro-Para takes the low OTS off OBX.  2" snow for DC.  Jackpot SE VA.  

So, the improved/Hires Euro -Para is a miss.  Would be ironic if this model busted in its first big ticket item test.

Of course, I am pulling like hell for some irony here. 

 

MDstorm

[ers-wxman1]

Quite concerned about the para and how the euro op will respond. Wonder what feature it took to suppress everything? Late phase?

[WEATHER53]

I also have temperature concerns. This is a strong low, we will need strong high pressure

Presuming it will dynamically create its own cooling is mostly a losing bet

[Yeoman]

Why is a 0z para Euro run coming out at 12z?

[clskinsfan]

Quite concerned about the para and how the euro op will respond. Wonder what feature it took to suppress everything? Late phase?

 

Yeah. I dont have access to it. Did it miss the phase all together?