DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yeah the last time the ggem BEAT out the Euro EPS on an east coast snowstorm was when? Despite the GGEM being warm, it's solution still isn't crazy. Foot totals along 95 between DC and Bmore with 20" amounts in the burbs. Everyone would've signed for that days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not what I wanted to hear.Yeah, that's rain for us..Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LOL. It's outcome is certainly a possibility. yeah the last time the ggem BEAT out the Euro EPS on an east coast snowstorm was when? yeah the last time the ggem BEAT out the Euro EPS on an east coast snowstorm was when? I don't think anyone is arguing that the GGEM will beat out the EURO. Just stating that it's outcome is not terrible up this way. Sucks for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's hard to tell since UKMET only goes out to 72H for that kind of stuff. Just a wag, but I would guess there'd be some mixing along 95 with the position of the surface low but it is captured by the H5 so it'd be a pretty sweet outcome when all is said and done. It would really clock the NW burbs. Probably a similar outcome to thr GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yeah the last time the ggem BEAT out the Euro EPS on an east coast snowstorm was when? 2/25/10 is the only one I remember it doing well with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GOD DAM this model is just total **** has any run of the ECMWF or eps showed ANYTHING like this over past 8 runs? Look at the massive dry slot Perhaps, but this post is useless unless you provide something meteorological to the discussion instead of simply hugging the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The graphics has the low east of there on the MODEL graphics has the L there but if you look closely you see the new deepr contour east of that 12z Ukie 987mb around SBY at 120... believe H5 is captured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Its good to see the HP coming in slightly stronger on all of the models as we progress as well. Should be plenty of cold air to work with. I havent been this excited since 2010. I really believe we are all gonna get demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The UK is absolutely perfect for the NW burbs. Blizzard conditions for hours. Unreal. Very impressive/dynamic solution for sure. I have feeling that King Euro will not disappoint at lunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yikes, GFS Ensembles look warm to me..... Sfc temps around freezing right on 95 for most of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have posted frequently or the massive inconsistencies over the last 3-4 days between the op GFS runs and the GEFS runs perhaps you could um use the scroll button? Perhaps, but this post is useless unless you provide something meteorological to the discussion instead of simply hugging the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, that's rain for us.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk It looks like we get a few inches of snow on both GFS and GGEM before a wind driven rain for hours after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 dont see these 15:1 snow ratios with temps near 30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yikes, GFS Ensembles look warm to me..... Sfc temps around freezing right on 95 for most of this storm. Surface temps aren't usually too reliable this far out, if the T/Td spread at the start of the event is 37/20 the model thinks it's 37 the entire event usually, doesn't incorporate evaporative cooking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Perhaps, but this post is useless unless you provide something meteorological to the discussion instead of simply hugging the Euro. Allow me to explain. It's because it doesn't show 22" for Richmond. Never mind the fact that the gfs has had basically the same thing for days, run after run. Sure it had the first lower a bit farther north, but aren't models supposed to hone in as we get closer? Simple fact is the euro is a se outlier and from what I hear didn't even agree with its own ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS compared to other 8"+ DC rising NAO/AO snowstorms (week prior avg to week after avg), sfc (historical is a daily composite, gfs is 6 hr) Here's the 500mb for same set: Includes: 1996010719960203197902192006021220000125196601291970123119870223195712031983021119871111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Come now, he meant cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 In regards to temps, can we bring up dynamic cooling? Edit: Some of you are very concerned about temps. Surely, if temps, are borderline, the heavy precip will overcome the "warm temps" (if there are any)...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yikes, GFS Ensembles look warm to me..... Sfc temps around freezing right on 95 for most of this storm. Dude...seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dude...seriously... gefs12z.JPG Looks like a mean of those would be pretty close to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ryan Maue says euro hires parallel is "no storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like a mean of those would be pretty close to the op. The mean is decent... waiting on the individs farther out than what Bob Chill posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like a mean of those would be pretty close to the op. It's another great run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ryan Maue says euro hires parallel is "no storm". Heh, panels are loaded. He's right. It's a south va/n nc special. 2" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ryan Maue says euro hires parallel is "no storm". Yeah, just checked. 00z Euro-Para takes the low OTS off OBX. 2" snow for DC. Jackpot SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS Cobb Data: DCA: 160122/1500Z 99 10009KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0160122/1800Z 102 08010KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0160122/2100Z 105 06018KT 29.7F SNOW 9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.173 10:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0160123/0000Z 108 05024KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.267 11:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/0300Z 111 02020KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.602 10:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 100| 0| 0160123/0600Z 114 05035KT 31.2F SNOW 4:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175 9:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.38 100| 0| 0160123/0900Z 117 03025KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 9:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0|100160123/1200Z 120 36026KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240 9:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.77 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/1500Z 123 36028KT 32.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156 8:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.93 100| 0| 0160123/1800Z 126 36025KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 8:1| 15.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.01 100| 0| 0160123/2100Z 129 34021KT 28.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 8:1| 15.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.02 100| 0| 0160124/0000Z 132 34019KT 27.6F SNOW 21:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 16.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.09 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160124/0300Z 135 33016KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 9:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.15 100| 0| 0 IAD: 160122/1500Z 99 10006KT 28.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0160122/1800Z 102 08007KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0160122/2100Z 105 07010KT 27.8F SNOW 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178 10:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0160123/0000Z 108 06014KT 26.1F SNOW 10:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.278 10:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/0300Z 111 03012KT 27.6F SNOW 12:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.564 11:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24 100| 0| 0160123/0600Z 114 04008KT 29.2F SNOW 4:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 10:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34 100| 0| 0160123/0900Z 117 01012KT 28.1F SNOW 8:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.300 10:1| 16.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64 100| 0| 0160123/1200Z 120 35016KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.220 10:1| 18.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.86 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/1500Z 123 35014KT 29.0F SNOW 9:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274 10:1| 20.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.14 100| 0| 0160123/1800Z 126 35014KT 29.6F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123 10:1| 21.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.26 100| 0| 0160123/2100Z 129 34013KT 28.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 22.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.28 100| 0| 0160124/0000Z 132 34012KT 26.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 22.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.31 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160124/0300Z 135 33011KT 25.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 10:1| 22.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.33 100| 0| 0 MRB: 160122/1500Z 99 12005KT 27.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0160122/1800Z 102 08007KT 27.0F SNOW 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0160122/2100Z 105 07008KT 25.8F SNOW 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243 10:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0160123/0000Z 108 05010KT 24.7F SNOW 10:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.292 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/0300Z 111 04009KT 25.1F SNOW 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.379 10:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0160123/0600Z 114 03005KT 27.2F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15 100| 0| 0160123/0900Z 117 36010KT 27.6F SNOW 20:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.370 12:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.52 100| 0| 0160123/1200Z 120 36013KT 27.9F SNOW 20:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.295 14:1| 24.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.81 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---160123/1500Z 123 36013KT 27.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 14:1| 25.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.90 100| 0| 0160123/1800Z 126 35011KT 27.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 14:1| 27.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.98 100| 0| 0160123/2100Z 129 34011KT 27.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 13:1| 27.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03 100| 0| 0160124/0000Z 132 33010KT 25.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 27.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS individs snow accums out to 138... most look good, a few "bad" ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, just checked. 00z Euro-Para takes the low OTS off OBX. 2" snow for DC. Jackpot SE VA. Either the EURO is going to show its King status or totally fail with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ensembles have some real crush jobs in them. A few ugly members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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