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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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yeah  the last  time the ggem   BEAT out  the  Euro EPS   on  an east coast snowstorm  was   when?

 

Despite the GGEM being warm, it's solution still isn't crazy. Foot totals along 95 between DC and Bmore with 20" amounts in the burbs. Everyone would've signed for that days ago. 

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LOL. It's outcome is certainly a possibility. 

 

yeah  the last  time the ggem   BEAT out  the  Euro EPS   on  an east coast snowstorm  was   when?

 

 

yeah  the last  time the ggem   BEAT out  the  Euro EPS   on  an east coast snowstorm  was   when?

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that the GGEM will beat out the EURO. Just stating that it's outcome is not terrible up this way. Sucks for your backyard. 

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It's hard to tell since UKMET only goes out to 72H for that kind of stuff. Just a wag, but I would guess there'd be some mixing along 95 with the position of the surface low but it is captured by the H5 so it'd be a pretty sweet outcome when all is said and done. It would really clock the NW burbs.

Probably a similar outcome to thr GFS

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 GOD DAM  this  model is  just  total ****  

has any run of the ECMWF or eps showed ANYTHING like this over past 8 runs?

 

Look at the massive dry slot

 

 

 

Perhaps, but this post is useless unless you provide something meteorological to the discussion instead of simply hugging the Euro.

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The graphics   has the low  east of there  
on the  MODEL  graphics  has the L   there but if you look closely you see the  new  deepr  contour  east of that 

 

 

12z Ukie 987mb around SBY at 120... believe H5 is captured

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   I have posted  frequently or the massive inconsistencies  over the last 3-4 days between the op  GFS runs and the  GEFS    runs 

perhaps you could um use the  scroll button?

 

Perhaps, but this post is useless unless you provide something meteorological to the discussion instead of simply hugging the Euro.

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Yikes, GFS Ensembles look warm to me..... Sfc temps around freezing right on 95 for most of this storm.

Surface temps aren't usually too reliable this far out, if the T/Td spread at the start of the event is 37/20 the model thinks it's 37 the entire event usually, doesn't incorporate evaporative cooking

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Perhaps, but this post is useless unless you provide something meteorological to the discussion instead of simply hugging the Euro.

Allow me to explain. It's because it doesn't show 22" for Richmond. Never mind the fact that the gfs has had basically the same thing for days, run after run. Sure it had the first lower a bit farther north, but aren't models supposed to hone in as we get closer? Simple fact is the euro is a se outlier and from what I hear didn't even agree with its own ensemble.

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GFS compared to other 8"+ DC rising NAO/AO snowstorms (week prior avg to week after avg), sfc (historical is a daily composite, gfs is 6 hr)

 

Ov2ao04.png

 

Here's the 500mb for same set:

 

nCf4F5Q.gif

 

Includes:

 

19960107
19960203
19790219
20060212
20000125
19660129
19701231
19870223
19571203
19830211
19871111

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12z GFS Cobb Data:

 

DCA:

160122/1500Z 99 10009KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 102 08010KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 105 06018KT 29.7F SNOW 9:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.173 10:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 108 05024KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.267 11:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 111 02020KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.602 10:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 114 05035KT 31.2F SNOW 4:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175 9:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.38 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 117 03025KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 9:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0|100
160123/1200Z 120 36026KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240 9:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.77 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 123 36028KT 32.1F SNOW 5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156 8:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.93 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 126 36025KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 8:1| 15.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.01 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 129 34021KT 28.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 8:1| 15.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.02 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 132 34019KT 27.6F SNOW 21:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 16.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.09 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 135 33016KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 9:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.15 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

160122/1500Z 99 10006KT 28.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 102 08007KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 105 07010KT 27.8F SNOW 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178 10:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 108 06014KT 26.1F SNOW 10:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.278 10:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 111 03012KT 27.6F SNOW 12:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.564 11:1| 13.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 114 04008KT 29.2F SNOW 4:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 10:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 117 01012KT 28.1F SNOW 8:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.300 10:1| 16.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 120 35016KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.220 10:1| 18.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.86 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 123 35014KT 29.0F SNOW 9:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274 10:1| 20.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.14 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 126 35014KT 29.6F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123 10:1| 21.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.26 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 129 34013KT 28.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 22.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.28 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 132 34012KT 26.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 22.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.31 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160124/0300Z 135 33011KT 25.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 10:1| 22.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.33 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

160122/1500Z 99 12005KT 27.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 102 08007KT 27.0F SNOW 11:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
160122/2100Z 105 07008KT 25.8F SNOW 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243 10:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 108 05010KT 24.7F SNOW 10:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.292 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0300Z 111 04009KT 25.1F SNOW 10:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.379 10:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 114 03005KT 27.2F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 10:1| 11.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15 100| 0| 0
160123/0900Z 117 36010KT 27.6F SNOW 20:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.370 12:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.52 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 120 36013KT 27.9F SNOW 20:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.295 14:1| 24.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.81 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/1500Z 123 36013KT 27.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 14:1| 25.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.90 100| 0| 0
160123/1800Z 126 35011KT 27.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 14:1| 27.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.98 100| 0| 0
160123/2100Z 129 34011KT 27.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 13:1| 27.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03 100| 0| 0
160124/0000Z 132 33010KT 25.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 27.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03 100| 0| 0

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