MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I really don't know how much a factor this is, but in New England they sometimes worthy about winds being too high and shattering the crystals into smaller sizes, reducing the depth. I'm not quite concerned about that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 2m temps in the single digits for much of the region next Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEM is much warmer then the GFS But gonna be amazing QPF Much more amped then 00z and Heavy precip all over the place Low is over eastern MD-DE much more west this run Until all models stop doing this, we can't rest easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I really don't know how much a factor this is, but in New England they sometimes worthy about winds being too high and shattering the crystals into smaller sizes, reducing the depth. I'm not quite concerned about that at this point. LOL that's one of those typical SNE blizzard problems. "My blizzard conditions are so intense it is making my snowflakes blow up!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Until all models stop doing this, we can't rest easy. GGEM has been warm for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I really don't know how much a factor this is, but in New England they sometimes worthy about winds being too high and shattering the crystals into smaller sizes, reducing the depth. I'm not quite concerned about that at this point.I wouldn't worry in Feb 13 winds gusted to 60 at my house way inland,crushed. This is an absolute crush job for you guys. Have to feel pretty confident at this point for a Friday Shutdown of the Eastern seaboard . Insane runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Whats the 24 hour snow record for BWI? It gets absolutely demolished on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Whats the 24 hour snow record for BWI? It gets absolutely demolished on this GFS run. 23.3" in the Knickerbocker storm for Baltimore. 22.8" in 2/83 for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LOL that's one of those typical SNE blizzard problems. "My blizzard conditions are so intense it is making my snowflakes blow up!" whats cool though is radar showing max snow tens of miles from you yet you are dumping due to displacement. On the immediate shore you can get shattered dendrites that reduce depth but its a total weenie lol worry. Geezus these runs were run out of Ji's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Ukie 987mb around SBY at 120... believe H5 is captured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone--are we talking ratios of 10:1 low end to 15:1 high end? Assuming as it bombs and we get into the deform, that's where the ratios rise as more cold air is generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z UKMET has a 1003 in NE GA at H96 and a 987 just off the Delmarva at H120. ETA: ninja'd by Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ukie 987mb around SBY at 120 Not what I wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If I remember correctly, it has to do with getting most efficient snow growth? Dendrites collide and shatter, resulting in a smaller crystal. Instead of laying on each other like puff balls, they compact more like grains of sand (just as an example). Resulting ratios are much lower than the 15:1 that are sometimes possible with pretty dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 UKMET 987 off OCMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z UKMET has a 1003 in NE GA at H96 and a 987 just off the Delmarva at H120. ETA: ninja'd by Yoda! Not what I wanted to hear. Yoda must have meant the H5 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not what I wanted to hear. Looks like h5 is captured though... it's just east of SBY looking at the meteocentre maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 name="mitchnick" post="3871784" timestamp="1453135627"]a lot worse goes on there, I'm sure holy crap Mitch the snowfall distribution has a March 58 overture. Maxed out for you guys but still.potent enough for me. I am so excited for all of you. Incredible consistency all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yoda must have meant the H5 low Both the h5 and SLP are there at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yoda must have meant the H5 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 UKMET would be a massive blizzard no weenieing included. Definitely captured and completely bombing out right off the Delmarva between 96-120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 holy crap Mitch the snowfall distribution has a March 58 overture. Maxed out for you guys but still.potent enough for me. I am so excited for all of you. Incredible consistency all around. I've never gotten this excited or confident at this range before, but it's turning into such a monster that the downside is 12-15" attm, and double that if everything happens as now depicted by the usually reliable models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Guys question for you if the vort passes over me that is decaying as it does so will that hurt me or not have a profound affect due to the strengthening nature of the primary low at that point? Confused with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yoda must have meant the H5 lowthat's not bad for us, but more so for Snowdude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I've never gotten this excited or confident at this range before, but it's turning into such a monster that the downside is 12-15" attm, and double that if everything happens as now depicted by the usually reliable models.you are inside 96 for the important features..still outside reliability but you know this drill . Sweet UK look now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 UKMET would be a massive blizzard no weenieing included. Definitely captured and completely bombing out right off the Delmarva between 96-120. How close is the mixing line for the cities? The map of the low position suggests that it could come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Despite the GGEM being warm, it's solution still isn't crazy. Foot totals along 95 between DC and Bmore with 20" amounts in the burbs. Everyone would've signed for that days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GOD DAM this model is just total **** has any run of the ECMWF or eps showed ANYTHING like this over past 8 runs? Look at the massive dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The UK is absolutely perfect for the NW burbs. Blizzard conditions for hours. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How close is the mixing line for the cities? The map of the low position suggests that it could come close. It's hard to tell since UKMET only goes out to 72H for that kind of stuff. Just a wag, but I would guess there'd be some mixing along 95 with the position of the surface low but it is captured by the H5 so it'd be a pretty sweet outcome when all is said and done. It would really clock the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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