snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone see the 0z Para Euro? Neither the 12z or 0z ever showed up on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good god dudes. I'm saving all this stuff in a folder. This is crazy goodgod.JPG That's the 6z para gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's the 6z para gfs? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 where on wxbell can that be found? I looked this morning and its not easily marked. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_parallel.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If I see that right Bob that's like 3'+ for CMD with that type of QPF and the temp profiles supportive of snow. Definitely folder worthy for a save. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For posterity...to erase the 0z para thoughts... 1-2' of snow has already fallen. What a beaut in the upper levels. 6zparah5.JPG 6zpara850.JPG Hey Bob, thanks for all this info! Sorry if this question is too IMBY-ish, but the 850s look dicey for most of Delmarva, correct? How does the shore make out on these most recent runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_parallel.php thank you, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Closed h7 passes over RIC. This is just sick. There is no doubt thunder and lightening if this happens. UVV's are rocking and the lift would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Para is like the 00z last night, except colder. 40" blizzard for Annapolis It also has the H7 passing right over VA, would probably mean insane rates and Tssn for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol the deform band on the para gfs just sits and pivots over us Friday night and Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can guess, but what is JB forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol the deform band on the para gfs just sits and pivots over us Friday night and Saturday morning.It does, it's literally a 40" Blizzard for all of CMD. Believable or not, another great signal to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Far left side, right under the GEFS. thanks, the most obvious is sometimes the hardest to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hey Bob, thanks for all this info! Sorry if this question is too IMBY-ish, but the 850s look dicey for most of Delmarva, correct? How does the shore make out on these most recent runs? Tough to say without soundings. Looks like 6-12" before the flip and unfortunately heavy rain during the bomb. Back to snow on the tail with a couple inches. Best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It does, it's literally a 40" Blizzard for all of CMD. Believable or not, another great signal to see nonetheless.By 0z Saturday we have close to a foot already and the good stuff hasn't even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol the deform band on the para gfs just sits and pivots over us Friday night and Saturday morning. I couldn't possibly draw up a better h5/h7 progression for our yards if I wanted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol the deform band on the para gfs just sits and pivots over us Friday night and Saturday morning. Where are you finding its surface pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I couldn't possibly draw up a better h5/h7 progression for our yards if I wanted to. The UVVs are a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Good god dudes. I'm saving all this stuff in a folder. This is crazy goodgod.JPG That would have to be close to 96 on the Nesis scale. All of the major cities from Richmond north are burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure if posted already - but looks like the WPC experimental winter weather graphics that depict the chance of winter precip with liquid equivalent over .25inch are now up to 70-90% stripe mainly west of cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where are you finding its surface pattern? The para link....http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160118%2006%20UTC¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure if posted already - but looks like the WPC experimental winter weather graphics that depict the chance of winter precip with liquid equivalent over .25inch are now up to 70-90% stripe mainly west of cities. 50-70 for the cities this far out is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Precip looks to arrive on the 06z GFS-Para around 6am Friday which is hour 101...we're about to cross the 100 hour mark on the models, which is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Tough to say without soundings. Looks like 6-12" before the flip and unfortunately heavy rain during the bomb. Back to snow on the tail with a couple inches. Best guess. Looks like I'll selfishly be hoping for a tiny jog SE Thanks again to everyone here for helping me learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I couldn't possibly draw up a better h5/h7 progression for our yards if I wanted to. That deform set up over the MoCo/Hoco snow corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure if posted already - but looks like the WPC experimental winter weather graphics that depict the chance of winter precip with liquid equivalent over .25inch are now up to 70-90% stripe mainly west of cities. It is actually in the 70-90% for Baltimore city itself, pretty amazing percentages for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The para link....http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160118%2006%20UTC¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area I don't think I have ever been blued for 5 3 hour panels before in my entire life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It is actually in the 70-90% for Baltimore city itself, pretty amazing percentages for this far out. Yeah - was mainly just pointing out that the meat of the stripe is west - but it's always good to see WPC so gung ho on something. Imagine a part of the generation of that map is also climo...and climo would favor west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last Update: Mon Jan 18 15:40:00 2016 GMT NWS TOC Operational Status MessageNo current message NCEP Operational Status Message Mon Jan 18 15:09:38 2016 GMTNOUS42 KWNO 181508ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1507Z MON JAN 18 2016 THE 12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE IS RUNNING ON-TIME... OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Closed h7 passes over RIC. This is just sick. There is no doubt thunder and lightening if this happens. UVV's are rocking and the lift would be insane. parah7.JPG parah7.1.JPG 12 hours of deepening and to move what, 20 miles? The upper levels are absolutely crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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