SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That run as a whole was drool worthy. I didn't even need to drink anything to wake me up this AM haha. Gonna be a long week. Question: as currently modeled would winds look to be a factor, or is this looking more like feb 5-6, 2010 without much wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Question: as currently modeled would winds look to be a factor, or is this looking more like feb 5-6, 2010 without much wind? I think wind will play a factor with this one. Maybe not a true blizzard throughout the MA, but areas closer to the bay on east could very well see it. Look at how many isobars cross through the state. More than 4 is usually pretty windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Question: as currently modeled would winds look to be a factor, or is this looking more like feb 5-6, 2010 without much wind?this would be a historic blizzard if the GFS eviction pans out simple as that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From LWX discussion: A WINTER STORM THREAT PERSISTS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY-SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US REACHING COASTAL CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK FROM A MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID- ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WHEN IT REACHES THE EAST COAST WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE SNOW FALL TOTALS. AT THIS TIME...COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS REGION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES AS FORECAST ACCURACY INCREASES CLOSER THE EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z para gfs was not as sweet. Trough goes negative a little early and tucks the low up the bay. The middle if the storm would be heavy rain for most of us before flipping back to snow. The solution is on its own right now so not worth reading too much into it. Buy like with the euro going more SE last night, these are things to watch for irt trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you want to see something beautiful, look at this 700mb moisture transport via the 6z GFS. Look at the origin of the moisture. Thing of beauty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 over 300 posts for me to catch up on, so forgive me in this information has been posted already. Cobb Output for Westminster 00z GFS: 1/22 18z to 1/24 06z 3.48 QPF (mostly snow, one 3hr period where temp was just above 32, so Cobb has it as RASN) 06z GFS: 1/22 15z to 1/23 18z 2.27 QPF (all snow) can't complain about that! Now to catch up on the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is pretty amazing stuff. I knew at some point the pattern had to flip in our favor with a strong El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's an old expression. When I was in high school and minimum wage was $1.50, we used $1.50/hr. No biggie. Haha. I know. Only messin. I actually don't forecast for this area at all. I'm scheduled to work Saturday morning too. Oy Ve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I've seen no mention of the euro ensembles. Anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I've seen no mention of the euro ensembles. Anybody? EPS looks really good, great consensus on the low locations, 10" mean for all of the DC area and 12" mean out towards 81 (Front Royal). A lot of huge hits and not many whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I've seen no mention of the euro ensembles. Anybody? Someone listed the mean snow from it on the previous page. Had DCA at 10" and Front Royal at 12". From that it sounds like EPS was not as far SE as the operational. ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS looks really good, great consensus on the low locations, 10" mean for all of the DC area and 12" mean out towards 81 (Front Royal). A lot of huge hits and not many whiffs. How does it compare to its prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 0Z GGEM had a solution I can buy into. No crazy totals. A foot for the cities with gradually more as you move into southern PA. With another max area near Martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How does it compare to its prior run? The mean went up from 7-8" to 10" for the DC area and the bullseye shifted from VA/WVA border towards 81. The SE trend isn't really supported much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z para gfs was not as sweet. Trough goes negative a little early and tucks the low up the bay. The middle if the storm would be heavy rain for most of us before flipping back to snow. The solution is on its own right now so not worth reading too much into it. Buy like with the euro going more SE last night, these are things to watch for irt trends. Totally qualitative post, but it seems like the para GFS has tended to be a step more amped/suppressed than the current OP GFS this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How does it compare to its prior run? More consensus for a lambasting. The SE cluster is far in the minority. Like 10 members or so. Mean track is sick and mean snowfall is centered over basically over your head. Mean 6" line stretches from St Mary's county to seven springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z para gfs was not as sweet. Trough goes negative a little early and tucks the low up the bay. The middle if the storm would be heavy rain for most of us before flipping back to snow. The solution is on its own right now so not worth reading too much into it. Buy like with the euro going more SE last night, these are things to watch for irt trends.Apparently due to a pesky GL low it partially phased with along the way. As long as the 12z models are without it, no need to start worrying about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How does it compare to its prior run? Looks to be slightly more agreement on big hits. The mean is up slightly area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Many thanks on the Euro info guys. It really helps some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Many thanks on the Euro info guys. It really helps some of us. not sure if anyone gave you qpf, but Euro had about 1.2" for Winchester but the county as it a whole ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 NW to SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 not sure if anyone gave you qpf, but Euro had about 1.2" for Winchester but the county as it a whole ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 NW to SE That's pretty impressive detail. What source do you use?And...thanks MG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I didn't see it posted lasted night but the 0z JMA is another model in the perfect h5 track camp. 2" qpf and all snow for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As usual the N&W crew will make it up with banding and ratios. So some poor schlub SE of DC might get 2.5" precip and you "only" get 1.5", but he turns to slop at the peak of the storm while you get nuked with dendrites. Not sure why this always needs to be said before each storm but anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's pretty impressive detail. What source do you use? And...thanks MG. weatherbell. happy to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As strong as this system is, relatively mild water temps lurk offshore. Could be an issue if the track is not ideal...IE further west and warmer air is drawn in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Also, in case anyone is interested, LWX has raised its experimental Winter Weather Storm Threat level to Moderate for Friday/Saturday http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Cobb for DCA 6z run was 1.92 total QPF IAD was 1.89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 As strong as this system is, relatively mild water temps lurk offshore. Could be an issue if the track is not ideal...IE further west and warmer air is drawn in.Models will pickup on that and there's no sign of that on most models save an occasional gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Cobb for DCA 6z run was 1.92 total QPF IAD was 1.89 That's pretty impressive. Not as impressive at the 00z run, but at this point, the finer details are going to change each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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