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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #1 - No Banter


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Everyone in far N and W burbs should hopefully know by now that there is a secondary precip max and secondary banding, and no matter what the models say, they will do better than further east...

 

I would think with that track verbatim, the precip shield would be more expansive on the western side for those in the far N&W burbs.  

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Historic storm as modeled and the best part is this run has a more classic evolution and h5 progression. All things considered if we can pick up 2' modeled this way, it's an excellent sign. Perfect track.

This much consistency with the models is something else. If we get similar results with 0z tonight, then well...time to make your grocery list.

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Guys, I do not believe the qpf output whatsoever on a bombing system that tracks perfectly over hatteras and northeast from there. I almost guarantee as the event draws near you see an uptick in qpf production on the westside of the storm. Just my two cents.

Possibly, the QPF with that h5 evolution could honestly be more like what we really did see on that insane 0z run. The fact of the matter is that the Atlantic is primed with very warm water temperatures and the storm is being fed by a strong STJ in a very strong nino year. That plus a the track of the mid level lows would make one think it could be historic in the QPF output. The front end is very impressive on the GFS and drops 8-12" before the transfer, with that part of the storm being 108 hours away and start time is getting to around t-100 hours. Stay tuned for sure but things are looking good. 

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Possibly, the QPF with that h5 evolution could honestly be more like what we really did see on that insane 0z run. The fact of the matter is that the Atlantic is primed with very warm water temperatures and the storm is being fed by a strong STJ in a very strong nino year. That plus a the track of the mid level lows would make one think it could be historic in the QPF output. The front end is very impressive on the GFS and drops 8-12" before the transfer, with that part of the storm being 108 hours away and start time is getting to around t-100 hours. Stay tuned for sure but things are looking good. 

We are all going to get pummeled by the front end. The highest totals are going to be who gets under the back end meso bands. This run of the GFS it's Northern and Northeastern Maryland, who knows where they actually will end up.

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Possibly, the QPF with that h5 evolution could honestly be more like what we really did see on that insane 0z run. The fact of the matter is that the Atlantic is primed with very warm water temperatures and the storm is being fed by a strong STJ in a very strong nino year. That plus a the track of the mid level lows would make one think it could be historic in the QPF output. The front end is very impressive on the GFS and drops 8-12" before the transfer, with that part of the storm being 108 hours away and start time is getting to around t-100 hours. Stay tuned for sure but things are looking good.

The front end is what is the most impressive, with that kind of accumulation before a bombogenesis occurs off the NC coast. I do believe as of right now though that you guys will jackpot over me, however the front end thump may overproduce for me as we are closer to the ULL that will be decaying to my southwest. Either way you slice it, it is going to be EPIC! I hope people understand from a meteorology perspective of how perfect everything is lined up right now. You don't see these setups too often, along with an undisturbed for the most part gulf stream over the Carolina coast, as well as a compensating nino pattern. Awesome stuff.

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Guys, please don't put too much stock in the computer generated snow fall maps as the complex algorithms on each site are different and do not take into consideration mesoscale phenomena at this lead time. The H5 depiction is beautiful and with the current track would lead to crazy snowfall totals across the region. As someone who's been forecasting in southern areas, I'll leave it at that, the STJ influence has been under modeled and the large scale QPF output have been under forecasted. If you couple in the dynamic nature of the system, combined with a rapid cyclogenesis that has influences of 2 major moisture sources, Atlantic and GOM, the front and back end thump of the storm would probably be ludicrous, especially the CCB/Deform axis with dendritic snow growth regions capable of going 15-20:1 ratio pending lift in mesoscale banding. Remember though, where there's lift, there's subsidence, so someone may be frowning for a bit during the storm, but in all honesty, it could just mean the difference of 20" instead of 30+" for a storm of this magnitude.

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Guys, please don't put too much stock in the computer generated snow fall maps as the complex algorithms on each site are different and do not take into consideration mesoscale phenomena at this lead time. The H5 depiction is beautiful and with the current track would lead to crazy snowfall totals across the region. As someone who's been forecasting in southern areas, I'll leave it at that, the STJ influence has been under modeled and the large scale QPF output have been under forecasted. If you couple in the dynamic nature of the system, combined with a rapid cyclogenesis that has influences of 2 major moisture sources, Atlantic and GOM, the front and back end thump of the storm would probably be ludicrous, especially the CCB/Deform axis with dendritic snow growth regions capable of going 15-20:1 ratio pending lift in mesoscale banding. Remember though, where there's lift, there's subsidence, so someone may be frowning for a bit during the storm, but in all honesty, it could just mean the difference of 20" instead of 30+" for a storm of this magnitude.

Sir, do you believe that with the transfer occurring, the models are having some sort of convective feedback issue, to where they are underestimating the amount of qpf that will occur once the coastal low takes off?

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Sir, do you believe that with the transfer occurring, the models are having some sort of convective feedback issue, to where they are underestimating the amount of qpf that will occur once the coastal low takes off?

Not so much convective feedback but just what could be barreling down on the region as a whole. The models surface depiction is actually doing well in terms of what is happening at H5. It's just the amount of precip over a given area COULD be slightly under modeled. Remember, the model right now isn't going to take into consideration mesoscale properties that would undoubtedly place a better depiction of where the heaviest snow axis will ultimately land. Matt (Westminsterdeathband) made a great point tonight about how there is usually a secondary precip Max with these systems to the northwest that never gets correctly modeled until game time. Take Feb '14 for example. Leading up to the WAA precip, totals were 8-12" on the front end at first prediction. Areas ended up getting 15-20" on the front due to banding and just crazy flux of moisture to the south. Could be similar here but with a wicked CCB axis as well to up the ante.

This is only of course for what is being shown right now. Just sit back and keep close tabs on H5 and smile at the surface reflection. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the more intricate details can begin being ironed out. Enjoy

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Not so much convective feedback but just what could be barreling down on the region as a whole. The models surface depiction is actually doing well in terms of what is happening at H5. It's just the amount of precip over a given area COULD be slightly under modeled. Remember, the model right now isn't going to take into consideration mesoscale properties that would undoubtedly place a better depiction of where the heaviest snow axis will ultimately land. Matt (Westminsterdeathband) made a great point tonight about how there is usually a secondary precip Max with these systems to the northwest that never gets correctly modeled until game time. Take Feb '14 for example. Leading up to the WAA precip, totals were 8-12" on the front end at first prediction. Areas ended up getting 15-20" on the front due to banding and just crazy flux of moisture to the south. Could be similar here but with a wicked CCB axis as well to up the ante.

This is only of course for what is being shown right now. Just sit back and keep close tabs on H5 and smile at the surface reflection. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the more intricate details can begin being ironed out. Enjoy

Appreciate you taking the time to answer my question. Have a great day!

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Was just reading the Mount Holly AFD and interestingly they expressed some "concern" the storm could track further south due to the strong mid/upper jet depicted on the SE side of the low on current guidance. I cant see this trending to a suppressed whiff, and I dont think they are implying that...seems the models are pretty close to locking onto a solution that is going to result in a widespread heavy snow event for much of the MA. Finer details will likely not be resolved for a couple more days.

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Guys, please don't put too much stock in the computer generated snow fall maps as the complex algorithms on each site are different and do not take into consideration mesoscale phenomena at this lead time. The H5 depiction is beautiful and with the current track would lead to crazy snowfall totals across the region. As someone who's been forecasting in southern areas, I'll leave it at that, the STJ influence has been under modeled and the large scale QPF output have been under forecasted. If you couple in the dynamic nature of the system, combined with a rapid cyclogenesis that has influences of 2 major moisture sources, Atlantic and GOM, the front and back end thump of the storm would probably be ludicrous, especially the CCB/Deform axis with dendritic snow growth regions capable of going 15-20:1 ratio pending lift in mesoscale banding. Remember though, where there's lift, there's subsidence, so someone may be frowning for a bit during the storm, but in all honesty, it could just mean the difference of 20" instead of 30+" for a storm of this magnitude.

So you are basically saying that if this track and intensity verifies... Then the models could be underestimating snowfall totals. Wow. Just. Wow.

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That run as a whole was drool worthy. I didn't even need to drink anything to wake me up this AM haha. Gonna be a long week.

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