Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is our sick antecedent pattern going to pay off? Classic Archimbault event. But will it deliver. Models are pretty much locked into a big event. Perhaps even a top 20 event for the DC area airports. Wide right seems unlikely. The big question is whether some of us will mix or flip. Is this an area wide monster or a 20" event for Winchester and a 6" event for DCA? Will surface temps cooperate on Friday or will we be flirting with 32? Do we want a hugger so we get a chance at better wraparound or a more progressive track? Looking forward to the chase and hopefully the payoff. I have a feeling 12:45 pm is going to be a VERY popular time for a break or lunch this week. As mentioned in the title. No banter. We can keep it fun, but before you click post, make sure your post contributes some value. If it is merely banter. Use the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm glad you started this Matt. Now the new long range thread can finish the month. I also like having one of our best people at the helm. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is our sick antecedent pattern going to pay off? Classic Archimbault event. But will it deliver. Models are pretty much locked into a big event. Perhaps even a top 20 event for the DC area airports. Wide right seems unlikely. The big question is whether some of us will mix or flip. Is this an area wide monster or a 20" event for Winchester and a 6" event for DCA? Will surface temps cooperate on Friday or will we be flirting with 32? Do we want a hugger so we get a chance at better wraparound or a more progressive track? Looking forward to the chase and hopefully the payoff. I have a feeling 12:45 pm is going to be a VERY popular time for a break or lunch this week. As mentioned in the title. No banter. We can keep it fun, but before you click post, make sure your post contributes some value. If it is merely banter. Use the banter thread. I think we want the solution that produces the most precip. Personally I'd like to see a good blob of precip while the low is west of the apps, a lull during transfer and then a smash from the coastal. I think that's actually possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think we want the solution that produces the most precip. Personally I'd like to see a good blob of precip while the low is west of the apps, a lull during transfer and then a smash from the coastal. I think that's actually possible. Agreed...if we can a wave of QPF like we saw with the 12z Euro or 18z GFS, I think we are in business, and we may not even have to worry about temperature profiles in that instance, but either way, better to have QPF to waste in case it gets a little warmer than we want it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have an almost phobic fear of a suppressed storm. The euro solution would erase that issue and it also seems to have a more expansive precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS Cobb output for Westminster; 1.438 qpf, all snow, 1/22 15z to 1/23 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS Cobb output for Westminster; 1.438 qpf, all snow, 1/22 15z to 1/23 15z Is that a strictly gfs product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Agreed...if we can a wave of QPF like we saw with the 12z Euro or 18z GFS, I think we are in business, and we may not even have to worry about temperature profiles in that instance, but either way, better to have QPF to waste in case it gets a little warmer than we want it to be. If we're in the 25-28 range here in immediate DC metro, we won't have to worry about sun angle or day time stickage....Even if we creep toward 31-32, moderate snow will stick fine even to primary roads in late January...I don't see a 2/5/10 scenario where we burn QPF at 34-35...We should be freezing or below at onset.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have an almost phobic fear of a suppressed storm. The euro solution would erase that issue and it also seems to have a more expansive precip shield. My biggest fear (if there is any) is a failure to phase that causes the storm to be weak and skirt by the area. But I feel as good about our chances as I possibly can at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Like Matt said, we're tightening up and getting strict as a threat approaches. Treat this as a local storm mode thread. -No banter -No useless questions or comments -If it doesn't add value, don't post it. If you see your posts disappearing, take a hint. If, after the third time you don't get the hint, its up to the moderators what happens to you. There's a banter thread for banter. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is that a strictly gfs product? Gives nam outputs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Saw this on Twitter earlier - the shortwave that will become our potential stormhttps://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/688798978515832834 Kind of a good window in to see how far out it is still and all of the other various players on the map. Despite the model agreement it's still clear that we're going to need things to really go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the front-running system may be a bit stronger and hold together better than as currently being modeled. Hopefully that system helps set everything up nicely. Won't be surprised if there is an inch or two in the area Wednesday night associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Don't shoot me. I just wanted to compare the God-awful SREF's to the Euro. I'm pretty shocked and encouraged actually. The top link is the 87 hrs. 500mb map off this evenings 21z SREF which takes you to 12z Thursday. The bottom link is the Day 4 Euro 500mb from 12z today which also takes you to 12z Thursday. I really expected a big difference. Even when you keep in mind that the SREF is a mean so you get a smoothed look, darn they look close all things considered. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160117+21+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It seems like the Euro op has more precip on the front side of the storm, while the crazy 18z GFS really depended on the perfect 500 evolution to get to HECS territory. Can't help but like the fact that all of the models are showing something similar at 500, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Saw this on Twitter earlier - the shortwave that will become our potential storm https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/688798978515832834 Kind of a good window in to see how far out it is still and all of the other various players on the map. Despite the model agreement it's still clear that we're going to need things to really go our way. Went to college with Anthony. He's a darn good met and worth following on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It seems like the Euro op has more precip on the front side of the storm, while the crazy 18z GFS really depended on the perfect 500 evolution to get to HECS territory. Can't help but like the fact that all of the models are showing something similar at 500, though.Combo of the two would work too. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Latest WPC map for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I certainly can't remember having this many models showing a storm at this magnitude this far out. It certainly ups my confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I certainly can't remember having this many models showing a storm at this magnitude this far out. It certainly ups my confidence. 09-10 was locked in with a couple of the storms IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 09-10 was locked in with a couple of the storms IIRC Didn't those kind of build in intensity as we got closer? I mean, we've got models predicting 2'+ over 5 days in advance. Seems crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not counting chickens, but if this works out close to what is now being advertised, we still have a lot of winter left with historically the best part in a Niño remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-18" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks to TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads. 2.1" QPF for DC. ETA: closes off 500 low but tracks it north of EPS in central/southern VA. Better solution would be tracking that a bit more south like the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Didn't those kind of build in intensity as we got closer? I mean, we've got models predicting 2'+ over 5 days in advance. Seems crazy.Matt will remember better than me, but one of the Feb 2010 storms locked in 6 days in advance and never really wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like the Jet Stream is setting up nicely for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z Euro Para is a mauling for I-81 (30") and a stripe from Garret County into central PA (3'). 12"-15" for the cities due to mixing issues. Primary tracks into southern TN/KY border before transferring. Sub 990 over Hampton Roads. 2.1" QPF for DC. That's still much better result than current 12z gfs, which was 8-10", more or less, for DCA/BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sorry if this gets erased but here is a screenshot of TWC app. Obviously too soon but nice to see it in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I certainly can't remember having this many models showing a storm at this magnitude this far out. It certainly ups my confidence. Feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sorry if this is way off topic, but in the OP, there is mention of this being a "classic Archimbault event". Can someone here point me to more info or an explanation? My Google skills are failing me. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Feb 2010 Feb 12-13/2014 was modeled well in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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