Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Seems more of an Apps Runner than a Miller A setup? Low tracks off the coast almost unanimously. It's the temps that are the issue. Unlike this weekend with a big sprawling hp to the north, there's virtually no hp to work with this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 About 20 members with 2" in dc. Big step from last night. Elevation is favored it seems. Temps are gonna be close no matter what. A couple fairly prolific solutions in there...heh Damn..i thought maybe the OP was smoking something. Eh...it feels weird to say this, but I want the GFS on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Only 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Maybe I get to do another article tomorrow if the Euro holds serve. lol dang. i haven't paid attention to any next storms but that sounds potentially bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 No I want the NAM on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Eps mean precip is .45 give or take. Some of the members drop a foot on areas that just got 3 feet. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Eps mean precip is .45 give or take. Some of the members drop a foot on areas that just got 3 feet. Lol. I was impressed by the mean sfc location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wonder why the 12z GFS is so different than the rest? Well, I guess last week was my first time model watching, so maybe its the norm for models to disagree wildly, unlike this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I was impressed by the mean sfc location. I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol Maybe it just wants to snow now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Low tracks off the coast almost unanimously. It's the temps that are the issue. Unlike this weekend with a big sprawling hp to the north, there's virtually no hp to work with this time.The high to our north in this storm wasn't that great at first and continued to get stronger until we were 2 days out sooooo...maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wonder why the 12z GFS is so different than the rest? Well, I guess last week was my first time model watching, so maybe its the norm for models to disagree wildly, unlike this past storm. Gfs is pretty similar in the upper levels. Has the energy and low pressure too. Just different timing. This one is much more complicated than this weekend. Small changes in timing yield large changes at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wonder why the 12z GFS is so different than the rest? Well, I guess last week was my first time model watching, so maybe its the norm for models to disagree wildly, unlike this past storm. I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol Maybe it just wants to snow now? I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol Maybe it just wants to snow now? Gfs isnt that far off really, woops quoted bob by accident bad cell connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol Maybe it just wants to snow now? We can be this year's Boston...but that doesn't mean I'm rooting for the Patriots lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 The high to our north in this storm wasn't that great at first and continued to get stronger until we were 2 days out sooooo...maybe There is no high to get stronger. Pretty unanimous with a low pressure tracking across southern Canada. But it doesn't have a ton of influence on the antecedent airmass. It's a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Gfs is pretty similar in the upper levels. Has the energy and low pressure too. Just different timing. This one is much more complicated than this weekend. Small changes in timing yield large changes at the surface.Plus, I think the GFS had it (maybe first.) I've noticed over the years that when model shows a storm, it has a tendency to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I honestly don't know if I can handle another week of staying up late and religiously watching the models and the threads. We are within 5 days though. We really need GFS on board but the Euro ENS sounds nice for a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol Maybe it just wants to snow now? Just did the same. Pretty good support for something decent. Needs to be near perfect track for the lowlands though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yes sir. Another dc to nyc special? got a link, please??are you talking the 29th?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Northern stream energy has some energetic consistency, GFS shows good 500 mb vorticity 4 days from now. Thinking that the better part of the next four weeks will offer a good number of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 There is no high to get stronger. Pretty unanimous with a low pressure tracking across southern Canada. But it doesn't have a ton of influence on the antecedent airmass. It's a nail biter.YeH, you're right. The other day when the gfs showed it, I remember it had a high. Gotta quit talking out of my lazy azz I guess. LolAnyway, the GL low isn't having much of an effect based on 850 temps and winds. We just need the stale High moving off the ne coast to hang on a little more or have the GL low speed up some and open the gate to allow cold to filter in. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h96&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Oh, I see Mr. - AO is back on the Euro at day 10 too. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016012412&fh=240&xpos=95&ypos=221 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I honestly don't know if I can handle another week of staying up late and religiously watching the models and the threads. We are within 5 days though. We really need GFS on board but the Euro ENS sounds nice for a start i honestly dont know if I could handle another foot of snow. My roads are a complete disaster right now. WTH am I saying. Bring it on. I would love to see the GFS/GEFS on board at least. With the Euro's performance on this blizzard it's tough to love any solution it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Oh, I see Mr. - AO is back on the Euro at day 10 too. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016012412&fh=240&xpos=95&ypos=221 Actually, its on the ensembles well before day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 i honestly dont know if I could handle another foot of snow. My roads are a complete disaster right now. WTH am I saying. Bring it on. I would love to see the GFS/GEFS on board at least. With the Euro's performance on this blizzard it's tough to love any solution it shows.Surprisingly, after 29", our roads are in pretty good shape. By Tuesday, if not later tomorrow, we should be good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Surprisingly, after 29", our roads are in pretty good shape. By Tuesday, if not later tomorrow, we should be good to go. Thats awesome. VDOT **** the bed on this storm for sure. NOVA is a hell of a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Actually, its on the ensembles well before day 10. EPS have us BN from Feb 4th through the end of the run on the 8th. +pna/-epo doing their dirty work. As Wes mentioned earlier the Atlantic isn't that good. Ops and ens are showing the strat getting bullied around at 10-50hpa. Not a split but a blue monster over the pole it is not. Becoming quite optimistic for Feb in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Mount Holly not impressed with the potential storm this week lol LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAYBEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. THE SYSTEM ISANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD HAVELITTLE IMPACT OUR WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 EPS have us BN from Feb 4th through the end of the run on the 8th. +pna/-epo doing their dirty work. As Wes mentioned earlier the Atlantic isn't that good. Ops and ens are showing the strat getting bullied around at 10-50hpa. Not a split but a blue monster over the pole it is not. Becoming quite optimistic for Feb in general. JB said same about feb "fun and games" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Mount Holly not impressed with the potential storm this week lol LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OUR WEATHER. guess euro contradicts that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 EPS have us BN from Feb 4th through the end of the run on the 8th. +pna/-epo doing their dirty work. As Wes mentioned earlier the Atlantic isn't that good. Ops and ens are showing the strat getting bullied around at 10-50hpa. Not a split but a blue monster over the pole it is not. Becoming quite optimistic for Feb in general. Temps at 10-50 mb are rising from the displacement of the pv, so I agree it will help even if we can't get that persistent sucker to split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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