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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 4


WinterWxLuvr

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About 20 members with 2" in dc. Big step from last night. Elevation is favored it seems. Temps are gonna be close no matter what. A couple fairly prolific solutions in there...heh

Damn..i thought maybe the OP was smoking something.  Eh...it feels weird to say this, but I want the GFS on board.  :unsure:

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Low tracks off the coast almost unanimously. It's the temps that are the issue. Unlike this weekend with a big sprawling hp to the north, there's virtually no hp to work with this time.

The high to our north in this storm wasn't that great at first and continued to get stronger until we were 2 days out sooooo...maybe
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Wonder why the 12z GFS is so different than the rest? Well, I guess last week was my first time model watching, so maybe its the norm for models to disagree wildly, unlike this past storm.

Gfs is pretty similar in the upper levels. Has the energy and low pressure too. Just different timing. This one is much more complicated than this weekend. Small changes in timing yield large changes at the surface.

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Wonder why the 12z GFS is so different than the rest? Well, I guess last week was my first time model watching, so maybe its the norm for models to disagree wildly, unlike this past storm.

I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol

Maybe it just wants to snow now?

I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol

Maybe it just wants to snow now?

Gfs isnt that far off really, woops quoted bob by accident bad cell connection
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I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol

Maybe it just wants to snow now?

We can be this year's Boston...but that doesn't mean I'm rooting for the Patriots lol
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The high to our north in this storm wasn't that great at first and continued to get stronger until we were 2 days out sooooo...maybe

There is no high to get stronger. Pretty unanimous with a low pressure tracking across southern Canada. But it doesn't have a ton of influence on the antecedent airmass. It's a nail biter.

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Gfs is pretty similar in the upper levels. Has the energy and low pressure too. Just different timing. This one is much more complicated than this weekend. Small changes in timing yield large changes at the surface.

Plus, I think the GFS had it (maybe first.) I've noticed over the years that when model shows a storm, it has a tendency to bring it back.
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I scanned the members. Lots of great tracks. Working with a marginal column though. Good track/wet solutions are plain rain. Wnwxluvr is in a good spot. Lol

Maybe it just wants to snow now?

Just did the same. Pretty good support for something decent. Needs to be near perfect track for the lowlands though.

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There is no high to get stronger. Pretty unanimous with a low pressure tracking across southern Canada. But it doesn't have a ton of influence on the antecedent airmass. It's a nail biter.

YeH, you're right. The other day when the gfs showed it, I remember it had a high. Gotta quit talking out of my lazy azz I guess. Lol

Anyway, the GL low isn't having much of an effect based on 850 temps and winds. We just need the stale High moving off the ne coast to hang on a little more or have the GL low speed up some and open the gate to allow cold to filter in.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h96&cu=latest

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I honestly don't know if I can handle another week of staying up late and religiously watching the models and the threads. We are within 5 days though. We really need GFS on board but the Euro ENS sounds nice for a start

 

i honestly dont know if I could handle another foot of snow. My roads are a complete disaster right now. WTH am I saying. Bring it on. I would love to see the GFS/GEFS on board at least. With the Euro's performance on this blizzard it's tough to love any solution it shows.

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i honestly dont know if I could handle another foot of snow. My roads are a complete disaster right now. WTH am I saying. Bring it on. I would love to see the GFS/GEFS on board at least. With the Euro's performance on this blizzard it's tough to love any solution it shows.

Surprisingly, after 29", our roads are in pretty good shape. By Tuesday, if not later tomorrow, we should be good to go.
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Actually, its on the ensembles well before day 10.

EPS have us BN from Feb 4th through the end of the run on the 8th. +pna/-epo doing their dirty work. As Wes mentioned earlier the Atlantic isn't that good.

Ops and ens are showing the strat getting bullied around at 10-50hpa. Not a split but a blue monster over the pole it is not. Becoming quite optimistic for Feb in general.

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EPS have us BN from Feb 4th through the end of the run on the 8th. +pna/-epo doing their dirty work. As Wes mentioned earlier the Atlantic isn't that good.

Ops and ens are showing the strat getting bullied around at 10-50hpa. Not a split but a blue monster over the pole it is not. Becoming quite optimistic for Feb in general.

JB said same about feb "fun and games"

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Mount Holly not impressed with the potential storm this week lol

 

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY

BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. THE SYSTEM IS

ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD HAVE

LITTLE IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

guess euro contradicts that

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EPS have us BN from Feb 4th through the end of the run on the 8th. +pna/-epo doing their dirty work. As Wes mentioned earlier the Atlantic isn't that good.

Ops and ens are showing the strat getting bullied around at 10-50hpa. Not a split but a blue monster over the pole it is not. Becoming quite optimistic for Feb in general.

Temps at 10-50 mb are rising from the displacement of the pv, so I agree it will help even if we can't get that persistent sucker to split.
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