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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 4


WinterWxLuvr

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I can hold the weight of the weather weenie world for a few hours while you rest up ;)

I did a quick scan. Looks like a jacked up narrow progressive trough with no blocking and a wave riding the boundary. Would require prefect timing with everything and hp to the north is so/so at best. Most likely outcome is rain or off the coast.

I'm in

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I did a quick scan. Looks like a jacked up narrow progressive trough with no blocking and a wave riding the boundary. Would require prefect timing with everything and hp to the north is so/so at best. Most likely outcome is rain or off the coast.

I'm in

Perfect timing cures all ;)

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6z run is a lot closer to the coast than 0z run for the 28th. se VA gets scraped. I like the Trend. If we could just get rid of that lp in Canada.

 

I think as others have mentioned in this thread, we are going to have to kind of thread the needle on this "event"... nevertheless, it helps that it comes in potentially at night

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This is a peice of energy hanging back riding up a front. Wave low. It could deepen rapidly though given the warm waters but this is not the kind of setup models will nail down 5 days out and history in a nino suggests these usually trend more amplified. Still a thread the needle low prob thing but worth keeping an eye on.

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Psu- things are starting to look pretty good in ensemble land after the first 3-4 days of Feb. Starting to get that +pna/-epo/-ao look on the means. We should have some shots if things go down like that.

The progs show some cross polar flow so there will be cold air coming into the CONUS.  I'm not wild about the negative height anomalies over Greenland above normal height near NOVA Scotia.  That needs to change for any big storm.  We'll probalby need a fisr storm to go north and then have wave on any front that goes by to cash in. 

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The progs show some cross polar flow so there will be cold air coming into the CONUS. I'm not wild about the negative height anomalies over Greenland above normal height near NOVA Scotia. That needs to change for any big storm. We'll probalby need a fisr storm to go north and then have wave on any front that goes by to cash in.

Not perfect yet... but cold enough and active enough at range to like the odds.

I think blocking is on its way back. Could be nicely established during the second week of Feb. Weeklies are definitely hinting that way during the second week of Feb.

Of course I could be feeling overly optimistic after what just happened. Lol

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