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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 4


WinterWxLuvr

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Check hrs 126-138 on EPS

I am trying to see if it drops any snow, but I think its adding in this evenings snow so I may have to wait for the 00z run to see how much snow it drops, if any

Backing out the totals from today on the means, it looks like 2-3" on the means. I'd be curious to see if those with snow for us do not have a GL low. I'll have to check later.

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It's a great track on the means (classic Miller A to OBX and NE from there). But there's a GL/Southern Canada low on the EPS that would likely jack our temps.

Day 5 850 temp

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2016012312&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=182

 

day 6 they drop after the passage of the storm

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Yeah at 132 the 850 mean is just east of the cities/95. Even though the GL low is weak, wouldn't the circulation still bring in a SW flow that could mess with our midlevels? Looking at the meteogram, it looks like there's about 15 or so members that give DC snow.

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You guys are sick. How can you even be looking at this stuff after not sleeping for a week

...14 members show accum snow *backs out of room and slowly closes door*

 

*opens the door*

 

So, what type of accums are we looking at here?

 

14 of 51.... so about 30%, that has my interest bar raised...

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Beyond the d5 miracle hit...Weeklies looked ok. I won't go into detail but after a crappy pattern the end of jan+first couple days of Feb the door definitely opens for chances. Blocking coming back with a west ridge/east trough config. Global ens support the look too. Nao is dicey but epo is good. The general "ok" idea is there + nino Febs are climo prime time

I'm thinking 200% climo for all until it doesn't happen. A redux of the last 2 days seems acceptable too

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Beyond the d5 miracle hit...Weeklies looked ok. I won't go into detail but after a crappy pattern the end of jan+first couple days of Feb the door definitely opens for chances. Blocking coming back with an west ridge/east trough config. Global ens support the look too.

I'm thinking 200% climo for all until it doesn't happen. A redux of the last 2 days seems acceptable too

 

Posted just as you did, but check out the 18z individ ensembles of the GEFS... intrigue is there... think I counted 10 or 11 giving us snow

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Also, the way the EURO is burying the energy that the GGEM/UK are bringing out that cause this potential storm remind me of what the EURO was doing in the LR with today's event.

Sorry in advance for the banter in this thread, but did you chase or stay in philly? Should have chased up to NYC lol

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Sorry in advance for the banter in this thread, but did you chase or stay in philly? Should have chased up to NYC lol

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

I stayed home...I know right! I got a little screwed here, for many hours today I got dry slotted and also just missed out on some bands. I have anywhere between 17-21" I'd guess. Meanwhile, my pop lives in Warminster PA which is like a 20 min drive for me NW and supposedly they got 30" 

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I stayed home...I know right! I got a little screwed here, for many hours today I got dry slotted and also just missed out on some bands. I have anywhere between 17-21" I'd guess. Meanwhile, my pop lives in Warminster PA which is like a 20 min drive for me NW and supposedly they got 30"

17-21 ain't bad. In upper nw DC I'm at about 22 inches or so - dry slot affected us too. Alright now I'm back to lurking and waiting for the GFS pbp.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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